A Leslie matrix approach to an age-structured epidemic

We consider a Leslie-type matrix approach to an SIR epidemic in discrete time. We give examples of the population of susceptibles, infectives, and removals for different birth rates and two different infection rates. Finally, when the infection rate depe

Lunar base habitat designs: Characterizing the environment, and selecting habitat designs for future trade-offs

A survey of distinct conceptual lunar habitat designs covering the pre- and post-Apollo era is presented. The impact of the significant lunar environmental challenges such as temperature, atmosphere, radiation, soil properties, meteorites, and seismic activity on the habitat design parameters are outlined. Over twenty habitat designs were identified and classified according to mission type, crew size; total duration of stay, modularity, environmental protection measures, and emplacement. Simple selection criteria of (1) post-Apollo design, (2) uniqueness of the habitat design, (3) level of thoroughness in design layout, (4) habitat dimensions are provided, and (5) materials of construction for the habitat shell are specified, are used to select five habitats for future trade studies. Habitat emplacement scenarios are created to examine the possible impact of emplacement of the habitat in different locations, such as lunar poles vs. equatorial, above ground vs. below ground, etc

Livelihood diversification strategies and food insecurity status of rural farming households in North-Eastern Nigeria

The study examined the effects of households' livelihood diversification strategies on food insecurity in rural Northeastern Nigeria. In order to realise the objectives of the study, primary data were obtained from 444 farmers with the aid of structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Tobit regression model, Cost of Calorie Function and ANOVA were used to analyse the data. The findings showed that farmers adopted five livelihood strategies of which Cropping, Poultry and Livestock Keeping (CPL) was predominant, accounting for 37.39% of respondents. However, 7.43% of the households practising Cropping, Fishing, Livestock keeping and Off-farm (CFLO) had the highest surplus and least shortfall indices of 0.75 and 0.20 respectively; implying that food secure households in this category exceeded daily RDA of 2250kcal of energy/adult equivalent/day by 75%; but food insecure households fell short of same by 20%. Head count ratio indicated that 58% and 42% of individuals in this category are food secure and food insecure respectively. Thus, a significant relationship between households' food insecurity and livelihood diversification strategies is established

Persistence of Primary and Secondary Pollutants in Delhi : Concentrations and Composition from 2017 through the COVID Pandemic

We assess impacts of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on ambient air quality in Delhi, building on over three years of real-time measurements of black carbon (BC) and nonrefractory submicrometer aerosol (NR-PM1) composition from the Delhi Aerosol Supersite and public data from the regulatory monitoring network. We performed source apportionment of organic aerosol (OA) and robust statistical analyses to differentiate lockdown-related impacts from baseline seasonal and interannual variability. The primary pollutants NOx, CO, and BC were most reduced, primarily due to lower transportation emissions. Local and regional emissions such as agricultural burning decreased during the lockdown. PM2.5 declined but remained well above WHO guidelines. Despite the lockdown, NR-PM1 changed only moderately compared to prior years. Differences in the trends of hydrocarbon-like OA and BC suggest that some sources of primary aerosol may have increased. Despite notable reductions in some primary pollutants, the lockdown restrictions led to rather small perturbations in the primary fraction of NR-PM1, with secondary aerosol continuing to dominate. Overall, our results demonstrate the impact of secondary and primary pollution on Delhi's air quality and show that large changes in emissions within Delhi alone are insufficient to bring about needed improvements in air quality.Peer reviewe

Persistence of Primary and Secondary Pollutants in Delhi : Concentrations and Composition from 2017 through the COVID Pandemic

We assess impacts of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on ambient air quality in Delhi, building on over three years of real-time measurements of black carbon (BC) and nonrefractory submicrometer aerosol (NR-PM1) composition from the Delhi Aerosol Supersite and public data from the regulatory monitoring network. We performed source apportionment of organic aerosol (OA) and robust statistical analyses to differentiate lockdown-related impacts from baseline seasonal and interannual variability. The primary pollutants NOx, CO, and BC were most reduced, primarily due to lower transportation emissions. Local and regional emissions such as agricultural burning decreased during the lockdown. PM2.5 declined but remained well above WHO guidelines. Despite the lockdown, NR-PM1 changed only moderately compared to prior years. Differences in the trends of hydrocarbon-like OA and BC suggest that some sources of primary aerosol may have increased. Despite notable reductions in some primary pollutants, the lockdown restrictions led to rather small perturbations in the primary fraction of NR-PM1, with secondary aerosol continuing to dominate. Overall, our results demonstrate the impact of secondary and primary pollution on Delhi's air quality and show that large changes in emissions within Delhi alone are insufficient to bring about needed improvements in air quality.Peer reviewe

A plague on five of your houses - statistical re-assessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plague is a re-emerging disease and its pneumonic form is a high priority bio-terrorist threat. Epidemiologists have previously analysed historical outbreaks of pneumonic plague to better understand the dynamics of infection, transmission and control. This study examines 3 relatively unknown outbreaks of pneumonic plague that occurred in Suffolk, England, during the first 2 decades of the twentieth century.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to compare the symptomatic period and the length of time between successive cases (i.e. the serial interval) with previously reported values. Consideration is also given to the case fatality ratio, the average number of secondary cases resulting from each primary case in the observed minor outbreaks (termed <it>R</it>_{<it>minor</it>}), and the proportion of individuals living within an affected household that succumb to pneumonic plague via the index case (i.e. the household secondary attack rate (SAR)).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>2 of the 14 cases survived giving a case fatality ratio of 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) = {57%, 98%}). For the 12 fatal cases, the average symptomatic period was 3.3 days (standard deviation (SD) = 1.2 days) and, for the 11 non index cases, the average serial interval was 5.8 days (SD = 2.0 days). <it>R</it>_{<it>minor </it>}was calculated to be 0.9 (SD = 1.0) and, in 2 households, the SAR was approximately 14% (95% CI = {0%, 58%}) and 20% (95% CI = {1%, 72%}), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The symptomatic period was approximately 1 day longer on average than in an earlier study but the serial interval was in close agreement with 2 previously reported values. 2 of the 3 outbreaks ended without explicit public health interventions; however, non-professional caregivers were particularly vulnerable - an important public health consideration for any future outbreak of pneumonic plague.</p

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London