Judgment Error in Lottery Play

We demonstrate that lottery markets can exhibit the "hot-hand" phenomenon, in which past winning numbers tend to receive a greater share of the bets in future draws, even though past and future events are independent. This finding is surprising, as works by Clotfelter and Cook (1993) and Terrell (1994) have previously documented the presence of an opposite effect|the \gambler's fallacy"|in the U.S. lottery market. The current literature also suggests that the gambler's fallacy prevails when random numbers are generated by mechanical devices, such as in lottery games (e.g., Ayton and Fisher (2004), Burns and Corpus (2004), Caruso et al. (2010)). We use two sets of naturally occurring data to show that both the gambler's fallacy and the hot-hand fallacy can exist in different types of lottery games. We then run online experimental studies that mimic lottery games with one, two, or three winning numbers. Our experimental results show that the number of winning prizes impacts behavior. In particular, whereas a single-prize game leads to a strong presence of th

Constraints on the Nucleon Strange Form Factors at Q^2 ~ 0.1 GeV^2

We report the most precise measurement to date of a parity-violating asymmetry in elastic electron-proton scattering. The measurement was carried out with a beam energy of 3.03 GeV and a scattering angle =6 degrees, with the result A_PV = -1.14 +/- 0.24 (stat) +/- 0.06 (syst) parts per million. From this we extract, at Q^2 = 0.099 GeV^2, the strange form factor combination G_E^s + 0.080 G_M^s = 0.030 +/- 0.025 (stat) +/- 0.006 (syst) +/- 0.012 (FF) where the first two errors are experimental and the last error is due to the uncertainty in the neutron electromagnetic form factor. This result significantly improves current knowledge of G_E^s and G_M^s at Q^2 ~0.1 GeV^2. A consistent picture emerges when several measurements at about the same Q^2 value are combined: G_E^s is consistent with zero while G_M^s prefers positive values though G_E^s=G_M^s=0 is compatible with the data at 95% C.L.Comment: minor wording changes for clarity, updated references, dropped one figure to improve focu

Measurement of the Bs0→J/ψKS0B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0 branching fraction

The $B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0$ branching fraction is measured in a data sample corresponding to 0.41$fb^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected with the LHCb detector at the LHC. This channel is sensitive to the penguin contributions affecting the sin2$\beta$ measurement from $B^0\to J/\psi K_S^0$ The time-integrated branching fraction is measured to be $BF(B_s^0\to J/\psi K_S^0)=(1.83\pm0.28)\times10^{-5}$. This is the most precise measurement to date

Measurement of the CP-violating phase \phi s in Bs->J/\psi\pi+\pi- decays

Measurement of the mixing-induced CP-violating phase phi_s in Bs decays is of prime importance in probing new physics. Here 7421 +/- 105 signal events from the dominantly CP-odd final state J/\psi pi+ pi- are selected in 1/fb of pp collision data collected at sqrt{s} = 7 TeV with the LHCb detector. A time-dependent fit to the data yields a value of phi_s=-0.019^{+0.173+0.004}_{-0.174-0.003} rad, consistent with the Standard Model expectation. No evidence of direct CP violation is found.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures; minor revisions on May 23, 201

Model-independent search for CP violation in D0→K−K+π−π+ and D0→π−π+π+π− decays

A search for CP violation in the phase-space structures of D0 and View the MathML source decays to the final states K−K+π−π+ and π−π+π+π− is presented. The search is carried out with a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 collected in 2011 by the LHCb experiment in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. For the K−K+π−π+ final state, the four-body phase space is divided into 32 bins, each bin with approximately 1800 decays. The p-value under the hypothesis of no CP violation is 9.1%, and in no bin is a CP asymmetry greater than 6.5% observed. The phase space of the π−π+π+π− final state is partitioned into 128 bins, each bin with approximately 2500 decays. The p-value under the hypothesis of no CP violation is 41%, and in no bin is a CP asymmetry greater than 5.5% observed. All results are consistent with the hypothesis of no CP violation at the current sensitivity

Search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓

A search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓ is performed with a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0  fb-1 of pp collisions at √s=7  TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment. The observed number of Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓ candidates is consistent with background expectations. Upper limits on the branching fractions of both decays are determined to be B(Bs0→e±μ∓)101  TeV/c2 and MLQ(B0→e±μ∓)>126  TeV/c2 at 95% C.L., and are a factor of 2 higher than the previous bounds

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex

Measurement of the ratio of branching fractions BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma)/BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) and the direct CP asymmetry in B0 -> K*0 gamma

The ratio of branching fractions of the radiative B decays B0 -> K*0 gamma and Bs0 phi gamma has been measured using an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb-1 of pp collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The value obtained is BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma)/BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) = 1.23 +/- 0.06(stat.) +/- 0.04(syst.) +/- 0.10(fs/fd), where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second is the experimental systematic uncertainty and the third is associated with the ratio of fragmentation fractions fs/fd. Using the world average value for BR(B0 -> K*0 gamma), the branching fraction BR(Bs0 -> phi gamma) is measured to be (3.5 +/- 0.4) x 10^{-5}. The direct CP asymmetry in B0 -> K*0 gamma decays has also been measured with the same data and found to be A(CP)(B0 -> K*0 gamma) = (0.8 +/- 1.7(stat.) +/- 0.9(syst.))%. Both measurements are the most precise to date and are in agreement with the previous experimental results and theoretical expectations.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figues, 4 table

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex

Absolute luminosity measurements with the LHCb detector at the LHC

Absolute luminosity measurements are of general interest for colliding-beam experiments at storage rings. These measurements are necessary to determine the absolute cross-sections of reaction processes and are valuable to quantify the performance of the accelerator. Using data taken in 2010, LHCb has applied two methods to determine the absolute scale of its luminosity measurements for proton-proton collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. In addition to the classic "van der Meer scan" method a novel technique has been developed which makes use of direct imaging of the individual beams using beam-gas and beam-beam interactions. This beam imaging method is made possible by the high resolution of the LHCb vertex detector and the close proximity of the detector to the beams, and allows beam parameters such as positions, angles and widths to be determined. The results of the two methods have comparable precision and are in good agreement. Combining the two methods, an overall precision of 3.5% in the absolute luminosity determination is reached. The techniques used to transport the absolute luminosity calibration to the full 2010 data-taking period are presented.Comment: 48 pages, 19 figures. Results unchanged, improved clarity of Table 6, 9 and 10 and corresponding explanation in the tex