Association between reductions of number of cigarettes smoked per day and mortality among older adults in the United States

Many smokers do not quit but instead reduce the number of cigarettes they smoke per day (CPD) over their lifetime. Yet the associations of such changes in CPD with health risks are unclear. We examined the association of changes in CPD with subsequent death in the period 2004-2011 among 253,947 participants of the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Using a questionnaire assessing responders\u27 history of smoking cigarettes, we identified cigarette smokers who quit, decreased, maintained, or increased their CPD between ages 25-29 and 50-59 years. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Relative to never smokers, smokers who maintained a consistent CPD had 2.93 times (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.82, 3.05) higher all-cause mortality risk, and participants who increased their CPD had still higher risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.37, 95% CI: 3.23, 3.52). Death risk was lower among participants who decreased their CPD (HR = 2.38, 95% CI: 2.25, 2.52) or quit smoking (for quitting between ages 30 and 39 years, HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.39). Similar patterns were observed for smoking-related causes of death, with particularly strong associations for lung cancer and respiratory disease. Reductions in CPD over the lifetime meaningfully decreased death risk; however, cessation provided a larger benefit than even large declines in CPD

Associations Between Cancer and Alzheimer\u27s Disease in a U.S. Medicare Population: Case-control and Cohort Studies

Several studies have reported bidirectional inverse associations between cancer and Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). This study evaluates these relationships in a Medicare population. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) linked to Medicare data, 1992-2005, we evaluated cancer risks following AD in a case-control study of 836,947 cancer cases and 142,869 controls as well as AD risk after cancer in 742,809 cancer patients and a non-cancer group of 420,518. We applied unconditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazards ratios (HRs). We also evaluated cancer in relation to automobile injuries as a negative control to explore potential study biases. In the case-control analysis, cancer cases were less likely to have a prior diagnosis of AD than controls (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.81-0.92). Cancer cases were also less likely than controls to have prior injuries from automobile accidents to the same degree (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.78-0.88). In the prospective cohort, there was a lower risk observed in cancer survivors, HR = 0.87 (95% CI = 0.84-0.90). In contrast, there was no association between cancer diagnosis and subsequent automobile accident injuries (HR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.98-1.07). That cancer risks were similarly reduced after both AD and automobile injuries suggest biases against detecting cancer in persons with unrelated medical conditions. The modestly lower AD risk in cancer survivors may reflect underdiagnosis of AD in those with a serious illness. This study does not support a relationship between cancer and AD

Impact of changing US cigarette smoking patterns on incident cancer: Risks of 20 smoking-related cancers among the women and men of the NIH-AARP cohort

Background: Historically, US women started smoking at a later age than men and had lower relative risks for smoking-related cancers. However, more recent birth cohorts of women and men have similar smoking histories and have now reached the high-risk age for cancer. The impact of these changes on cancer incidence has not been systematically examined. Methods: Relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and attributable fractions were calculated for cigarette smoking and incidence of 20 smoking-related cancers in 186 057 women and 266 074 men of the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort, aged 50 to 71 years in 1995 and followed for 11 years. Results: In the cohort, which included participants born between 1924 and 1945, most women and men started smoking as teenagers. RRs for current vs never smoking were similar in women and men for the following cancers: lung squamous-cell (RR women: 121.4, 95% CI: 57.3–257.4; RR men:114.6, 95% CI: 61.2–214.4), lung adenocarcinoma (RR women: 11.7, 95% CI: 9.8–14.0; RR men: 15.6, 95% CI: 12.5–19.6), laryngeal (RR women: 37.0, 95% CI: 14.9–92.3; RR men: 13.8, 95% CI: 9.3–20.2), oral cavity-pharyngeal (RR women:4.4, 95% CI: 3.3–6.0; RR men: 3.8, 95% CI: 3.0–4.7), oesophageal squamous cell (RR women: 7.3, 95% CI: 3.5–15.5; RR men: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.8–13.7), bladder (RR women: 4.7, 95% CI: 3.7–5.8; RR men: 4.0, 95% CI: 3.5–4.5), colon (RR women: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2–1.5; RR men: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.4), and at other sites, with similar attributable fractions. Conclusions: RRs for current smoking and incidence of many smoking-related cancers are now similar in US women and men, likely reflecting converging smoking patterns

Obesity, diabetes, serum glucose, and risk of primary liver cancer by birth cohort, race/ethnicity, and sex: Multiphasic health checkup study

Obesity and diabetes have been associated with liver cancer. However, recent US-based studies have suggested a lack of association between obesity and liver cancer among blacks and women

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Mortality: NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

Residing in deprived areas may increase risk of mortality beyond that explained by a person's own SES-related factors and lifestyle. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation and all-cause, cancer- and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality for men and women after accounting for education and other important person-level risk factors.In the longitudinal NIH-AARP Study, we analyzed data from healthy participants, ages 50-71 years at study baseline (1995-1996). Deaths (n = 33831) were identified through December 2005. Information on census tracts was obtained from the 2000 US Census. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quintiles of neighborhood deprivation.Participants in the highest quintile of deprivation had elevated risks for overall mortality (HR(men) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.24; HR(women) = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) and marginally increased risk for cancer deaths (HR(men) = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20; HR(women) = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.22). CVD mortality associations appeared stronger in men (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.49) than women (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38). There was no evidence of an effect modification by education.Higher neighborhood deprivation was associated with modest increases in all-cause, cancer- and CVD-mortality after accounting for many established risk factors

Diabetes Mellitus and Its Correlates in an Iranian Adult Population

The rising epidemic of diabetes imposes a substantial economic burden on the Middle East. Using baseline data from a population based cohort study, we aimed to identify the correlates of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a mainly rural population from Iran. Between 2004 and 2007, 50044 adults between 30 and 87 years old from Golestan Province located in Northeast Iran were enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study. Demographic and health-related information was collected using questionnaires. Individuals' body sizes at ages 15 and 30 were assessed by validated pictograms ranging from 1 (very lean) to 7 in men and 9 in women. DM diagnosis was based on the self-report of a physician's diagnosis. The accuracy of self-reported DM was evaluated in a subcohort of 3811 individuals using fasting plasma glucose level and medical records. Poisson regression with robust variance estimator was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR's). The prevalence of self-reported DM standardized to the national and world population was 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively. Self-reported DM had 61.5% sensitivity and 97.6% specificity. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with DM prevalence. Green tea and opium consumption increased the prevalence of DM. Obesity at all ages and extreme leanness in childhood increased diabetes prevalence. Being obese throughout life doubled DM prevalence in women (PR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.8, 2.4). These findings emphasize the importance of improving DM awareness, improving general living conditions, and early lifestyle modifications in diabetes prevention

Risk Model-Based Lung Cancer Screening and Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the US

Importance The revised 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines for lung cancer screening have been shown to reduce disparities in screening eligibility and performance between African American and White individuals vs the 2013 guidelines. However, potential disparities across other racial and ethnic groups in the US remain unknown. Risk model–based screening may reduce racial and ethnic disparities and improve screening performance, but neither validation of key risk prediction models nor their screening performance has been examined by race and ethnicity.Objective To validate and recalibrate the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 (PLCOm2012) model—a well-established risk prediction model based on a predominantly White population—across races and ethnicities in the US and evaluate racial and ethnic disparities and screening performance through risk-based screening using PLCOm2012 vs the USPSTF 2021 criteria.Design, Setting, and Participants In a population-based cohort design, the Multiethnic Cohort Study enrolled participants in 1993-1996, followed up through December 31, 2018. Data analysis was conducted from April 1, 2022, to May 19. 2023. A total of 105 261 adults with a smoking history were included.Exposures The 6-year lung cancer risk was calculated through recalibrated PLCOm2012 (ie, PLCOm2012-Update) and screening eligibility based on a 6-year risk threshold greater than or equal to 1.3%, yielding similar eligibility as the USPSTF 2021 guidelines.Outcomes Predictive accuracy, screening eligibility-incidence (E-I) ratio (ie, ratio of the number of eligible to incident cases), and screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, and number needed to screen to detect 1 lung cancer).Results Of 105 261 participants (60 011 [57.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 59.8 [8.7] years), consisting of 19 258 (18.3%) African American, 27 227 (25.9%) Japanese American, 21 383 (20.3%) Latino, 8368 (7.9%) Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander, and 29 025 (27.6%) White individuals, 1464 (1.4%) developed lung cancer within 6 years from enrollment. The PLCOm2012-Update showed good predictive accuracy across races and ethnicities (area under the curve, 0.72-0.82). The USPSTF 2021 criteria yielded a large disparity among African American individuals, whose E-I ratio was 53% lower vs White individuals (E-I ratio: 9.5 vs 20.3; P < .001). Under the risk-based screening (PLCOm2012-Update 6-year risk ≥1.3%), the disparity between African American and White individuals was substantially reduced (E-I ratio: 15.9 vs 18.4; P < .001), with minimal disparities observed in persons of other minoritized groups, including Japanese American, Latino, and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. Risk-based screening yielded superior overall and race and ethnicity–specific performance to the USPSTF 2021 criteria, with higher overall sensitivity (67.2% vs 57.7%) and lower number needed to screen (26 vs 30) at similar specificity (76.6%).Conclusions The findings of this cohort study suggest that risk-based lung cancer screening can reduce racial and ethnic disparities and improve screening performance across races and ethnicities vs the USPSTF 2021 criteria

Is There an Association between Advanced Paternal Age and Endophenotype Deficit Levels in Schizophrenia?

The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS). All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293) or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382). Paternal age at the time of subjects’ birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age–endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia

Critical Exponents, Hyperscaling and Universal Amplitude Ratios for Two- and Three-Dimensional Self-Avoiding Walks

We make a high-precision Monte Carlo study of two- and three-dimensional self-avoiding walks (SAWs) of length up to 80000 steps, using the pivot algorithm and the Karp-Luby algorithm. We study the critical exponents $\nu$ and $2\Delta_4 -\gamma$ as well as several universal amplitude ratios; in particular, we make an extremely sensitive test of the hyperscaling relation $d\nu = 2\Delta_4 -\gamma$. In two dimensions, we confirm the predicted exponent $\nu = 3/4$ and the hyperscaling relation; we estimate the universal ratios $\ / \ = 0.14026 \pm 0.00007$, $\ / \ = 0.43961 \pm 0.00034$ and $\Psi^* = 0.66296 \pm 0.00043$ (68\% confidence limits). In three dimensions, we estimate $\nu = 0.5877 \pm 0.0006$ with a correction-to-scaling exponent $\Delta_1 = 0.56 \pm 0.03$ (subjective 68\% confidence limits). This value for $\nu$ agrees excellently with the field-theoretic renormalization-group prediction, but there is some discrepancy for $\Delta_1$. Earlier Monte Carlo estimates of $\nu$, which were $\approx\! 0.592$, are now seen to be biased by corrections to scaling. We estimate the universal ratios $\ / \ = 0.1599 \pm 0.0002$ and $\Psi^* = 0.2471 \pm 0.0003$; since $\Psi^* > 0$, hyperscaling holds. The approach to $\Psi^*$ is from above, contrary to the prediction of the two-parameter renormalization-group theory. We critically reexamine this theory, and explain where the error lies.Comment: 87 pages including 12 figures, 1029558 bytes Postscript (NYU-TH-94/09/01