Parameterizing the microbial loop: an experiment in reducing model complexity

The structure of the plankton food web in the upper mixed layer has important implications for the export of biogenic material from the euphotic zone. While the action of the microbial loop causes material to be recycled near the surface, activity of the larger zooplankton leads to a significant downward flux of material. The balance between these pathways must be properly represented in climate models to predict carbon export. However, the number of biogeochemical compartments available to represent the food web is limited by the need to couple biogeochemical models with general circulation models. A structurally simple model is therefore sought, with a number of free parameters, which can be constrained by available observations to produce reliable estimates of export.A step towards addressing this aim is described: an attempt is made to emulate the behavior of an 11 compartment model with an explicit microbial loop, using a 4 compartment model. The latter, incorporating a basic microbial loop parameterization, is derived directly from the 'true' model. The results are compared with equivalent results for a 4 compartment model with no representation of the microbial loop. These non-identical twin experiments suggest that export estimates from 4 compartment models are prone to serious biases in regions where the action of the microbial loop is significant. The basic parameterization shows some promise in addressing the problem but a more sophisticated parameterization would be needed to produce reliable estimates. Some recommendations are made for future research

Split-domain calibration of an ecosystem model using satellite ocean colour data

The application of satellite ocean colour data to the calibration of plankton ecosystem models for large geographic domains, over which their ideal parameters cannot be assumed to be invariant, is investigated. A method is presented for seeking the number and geographic scope of parameter sets which allows the best fit to validation data to be achieved. These are independent data not used in the parameter estimation process. The goodness-of-fit of the optimally calibrated model to the validation data is an objective measure of merit for the model, together with its external forcing data. Importantly, this is a statistic which can be used for comparative evaluation of different models. The method makes use of observations from multiple locations, referred to as stations, distributed across the geographic domain. It relies on a technique for finding groups of stations which can be aggregated for parameter estimation purposes with minimal increase in the resulting misfit between model and observations.The results of testing this split-domain calibration method for a simple zero dimensional model, using observations from 30 stations in the North Atlantic, are presented. The stations are divided into separate calibration and validation sets. One year of ocean colour data from each station were used in conjunction with a climatological estimate of the station’s annual nitrate maximum. The results demonstrate the practical utility of the method and imply that an optimal fit of the model to the validation data would be given by two parameter sets. The corresponding division of the North Atlantic domain into two provinces allows a misfit-based cost to be achieved which is 25% lower than that for the single parameter set obtained using all of the calibration stations. In general, parameters are poorly constrained, contributing to a high degree of uncertainty in model output for unobserved variables. This suggests that limited progress towards a definitive model calibration can be made without including other types of observations

Spatiotemporal complexity of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system

In this paper, we investigate the emergence of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system with Michaelis-Menten-type functional response and reaction-diffusion. We derive the conditions for Hopf, Turing and Wave bifurcation on a spatial domain. Furthermore, we present a theoretical analysis of evolutionary processes that involves organisms distribution and their interaction of spatially distributed population with local diffusion. The results of numerical simulations reveal that the typical dynamics of population density variation is the formation of isolated groups, i.e., stripelike or spotted or coexistence of both. Our study shows that the spatially extended model has not only more complex dynamic patterns in the space, but also chaos and spiral waves. It may help us better understand the dynamics of an aquatic community in a real marine environment.Comment: 6pages, revtex

An eddy permitting coupled physical-biological model of the North Atlantic. Part I: Sensitivity to advection numerics and mixed layer physics

Physical influences on biological primary production in the North Atlantic are investigated by coupling a four-component pelagic ecosystem model with a high-resolution numerical circulation model. A series of sensitivity experiments demonstrates the important role of an accurate formulation of upper ocean turbulence and advection numerics. The unrealistically large diffusivity implicit in upstream advection approximately doubles primary production when compared with a less diffusive, higher-order, positive-definite advection scheme.This is of particular concern in the equatorial upwelling region where upstream advection leads to a considerable increase of upper ocean nitrate concentrations. Counteracting this effect of unrealistically large implicit diffusion by changes in the biological model could easily lead to misconceptions in the interpretation of ecosystem dynamics. Subgrid-scale diapycnal diffusion strongly controls biological production in the subtropical gyre where winter mixing does not reach the nutricline. The parameterization of vertical viscosity is important mainly in the equatorial region where friction becomes an important agent in the momentum balance

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model ? Part I: The role of the large-scale upper mixed layer variability

International audienceA global general circulation model coupled to a simple six-compartment ecosystem model is used to study the extent to which global variability in primary and export production can be realistically predicted on the basis of advanced parameterizations of upper mixed layer physics, without recourse to introducing extra complexity in model biology. The ''K profile parameterization'' (KPP) scheme employed, combined with 6-hourly external forcing, is able to capture short-term periodic and episodic events such as diurnal cycling and storm-induced deepening. The model realistically reproduces various features of global ecosystem dynamics that have been problematic in previous global modelling studies, using a single generic parameter set. The realistic simulation of deep convection in the North Atlantic, and lack of it in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans, leads to good predictions of chlorophyll and primary production in these contrasting areas. Realistic levels of primary production are predicted in the oligotrophic gyres due to high frequency external forcing of the upper mixed layer (accompanying paper Popova et al., 2006) and novel parameterizations of zooplankton excretion. Good agreement is shown between model and observations at various JFOFS time series sites: BATS, KERFIX, Papa and station India. One exception is that the high zooplankton grazing rates required to maintain low chlorophyll in high-nutrient low-chlorophyll and oligotrophic systems lessened agreement between model and data in the northern North Atlantic, where mesozooplankton with lower grazing rates may be dominant. The model is therefore not globally robust in the sense that additional parameterizations were needed to realistically simulate ecosystem dynamics in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, the work emphasises the need to pay particular attention to the parameterization of mixed layer physics in global ocean ecosystem modelling as a prerequisite to increasing the complexity of ecosystem models

Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S–45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245–1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates

A seasonal three-dimensional ecosystem model of nitrogen cycling in the North Atlantic Euphotic Zone

A seven-component upper ocean ecosystem model of nitrogen cycling calibrated with observations at Bermuda Station “S” has been coupled to a three-dimensional seasonal general circulation model (GCM) of the North Atlantic ocean. The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of the role of upper ocean biological processes in controlling surface chemical distributions, and to develop approaches for assimilating large data sets relevant to this problem. A comparison of model predicted chlorophyll with satellite coastal zone color scanner observations shows that the ecosystem model is capable of responding realistically to a variety of physical forcing environments. Most of the discrepancies identified are due to problems with the GCM model. The new production predicted by the model is equivalent to 2 to 2.8 mol m−2 yr−1 of carbon uptake, or 8 to 12 GtC/yr on a global scale. The southern half of the subtropical gyre is the only major region of the model with almost complete surface nitrate removal (nitrate<0.1 mmol m−3). Despite this, almost the entire model is nitrate limited in the sense that any addition of nitrate supply would go predominantly into photosynthesis. The only exceptions are some coastal upwelling regions and the high latitudes during winter, where nitrate goes as high as ∼10 mmol m−3

Spatiotemporal dynamics in a spatial plankton system

In this paper, we investigate the complex dynamics of a spatial plankton-fish system with Holling type III functional responses. We have carried out the analytical study for both one and two dimensional system in details and found out a condition for diffusive instability of a locally stable equilibrium. Furthermore, we present a theoretical analysis of processes of pattern formation that involves organism distribution and their interaction of spatially distributed population with local diffusion. The results of numerical simulations reveal that, on increasing the value of the fish predation rates, the sequences spots $\rightarrow$ spot-stripe mixtures$\rightarrow$ stripes$\rightarrow$ hole-stripe mixtures holes$\rightarrow$ wave pattern is observed. Our study shows that the spatially extended model system has not only more complex dynamic patterns in the space, but also has spiral waves.Comment: Published Pape

Some observations of the Azores Current and the North Equatorial Current

The regions containing the two zonal currents of the subtropical gyre in the eastern North Atlantic, the Azores Current and the North Equatorial Current (NEC), have quite different physical characteristics. Associated with the Azores Current are strong horizontal thermohaline gradients that can be located easily both at the surface and at depth with temperature data alone, thus making satellite IR imagery and expendable bathythermograph profiles suitable for observing it. During winter, the surface expression of the Azores Current is often found to the north of the strongest subsurface gradients. In contrast to the Azores Current and to the central water mass boundary just to the south, the NEC has relatively weak horizontal temperature and salinity gradients, requiring density information in order to identify it. There is no clear surface manifestation found with the NEC. Common to both currents, though, is that each transports O(8 Sv) in the upper 800 m of the ocean near 27°W, with the largest velocities being in the upper 400 m