Extreme 13C depletion of CCl2F2 in firn air samples from NEEM, Greenland

A series of 12 high volume air samples collected from the S2 firn core during the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) 2009 campaign have been measured for mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition of the chlorofluorocarbon CFC-12 (CCl2F2). While the mixing ratio measurements compare favorably to other firn air studies, the isotope results show extreme 13C depletion at the deepest measurable depth (65 m), to values lower than d13C = -80‰ vs. VPDB (the international stable carbon isotope scale), compared to present day surface tropospheric measurements near -40‰. Firn air modeling was used to interpret these measurements. Reconstructed atmospheric time series indicate even larger depletions (to -120‰) near 1950 AD, with subsequent rapid enrichment of the atmospheric reservoir of the compound to the present day value. Mass-balance calculations show that this change is likely to have been caused by a large change in the isotopic composition of anthropogenic CFC-12 emissions, probably due to technological advances in the CFC production process over the last 80 yr, though direct evidence is lacking

Clustering, advection and patterns in a model of population dynamics with neighborhood-dependent rates

We introduce a simple model of population dynamics which considers birth and death rates for every individual that depend on the number of particles in its neighborhood. The model shows an inhomogeneous quasistationary pattern with many different clusters of particles. We derive the equation for the macroscopic density of particles, perform a linear stability analysis on it, and show that there is a finite-wavelength instability leading to pattern formation. This is the responsible for the approximate periodicity with which the clusters of particles arrange in the microscopic model. In addition, we consider the population when immersed in a fluid medium and analyze the influence of advection on global properties of the model.Comment: Some typos and some problems with the figures correcte

A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air

We present the first reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitude atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction from Greenland firn air. Firn air samples were collected at three deep ice core sites in Greenland (NGRIP in 2001, Summit in 2006 and NEEM in 2008). CO records from the three sites agree well with each other as well as with recent atmospheric measurements, indicating that CO is well preserved in the firn at these sites. CO atmospheric history was reconstructed back to the year 1950 from the measurements using a combination of two forward models of gas transport in firn and an inverse model. The reconstructed history suggests that Arctic CO in 1950 was 140–150 nmol mol-1, which is higher than today's values. CO mole fractions rose by 10–15 nmol mol-1 from 1950 to the 1970s and peaked in the 1970s or early 1980s, followed by a ˜ 30 nmol mol-1 decline to today's levels. We compare the CO history with the atmospheric histories of methane, light hydrocarbons, molecular hydrogen, CO stable isotopes and hydroxyl radicals (OH), as well as with published CO emission inventories and results of a historical run from a chemistry-transport model. We find that the reconstructed Greenland CO history cannot be reconciled with available emission inventories unless unrealistically large changes in OH are assumed. We argue that the available CO emission inventories strongly underestimate historical NH emissions, and fail to capture the emission decline starting in the late 1970s, which was most likely due to reduced emissions from road transportation in North America and Europe

Constraining N2O emissions since 1940 using firn air isotope measurements in both hemispheres

N2O is currently the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in terms of radiative forcing and its atmospheric mole fraction is rising steadily. To quantify the growth rate and its causes over the past decades, we performed a multi-site reconstruction of the atmospheric N2O mole fraction and isotopic composition using new and previously published firn air data collected from Greenland and Antarctica in combination with a firn diffusion and densification model. The multi-site reconstruction showed that while the global mean N2O mole fraction increased from (290±1)nmolmol-1 in 1940 to (322±1)nmolmol-1 in 2008, the isotopic composition of atmospheric N2O decreased by (-2.2±0.2)% for δ15Nav, (-1.0±0.3)% for δ18O, (-1.3±0.6)% for δ15Nα, and (-2.8±0.6)% for δ15Nβ over the same period. The detailed temporal evolution of the mole fraction and isotopic composition derived from the firn air model was then used in a two-box atmospheric model (comprising a stratospheric box and a tropospheric box) to infer changes in the isotopic source signature over time. The precise value of the source strength depends on the choice of the N2O lifetime, which we choose to fix at 123 years. The average isotopic composition over the investigated period is δ15Nav Combining double low line (-7.6±0.8)% (vs. air-N2), δ18O Combining double low line (32.2±0.2)% (vs. Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water-VSMOW) for δ18O, δ15Nα Combining double low line (-3.0±1.9)% and δ15Nβ Combining double low line (-11.7±2.3)%. δ15Nav, and δ15Nβ show some temporal variability, while for the other signatures the error bars of the reconstruction are too large to retrieve reliable temporal changes. Possible processes that may explain trends in 15N are discussed. The 15N site preference (Combining double low line δ15Nα-δ15Nβ) provides evidence of a shift in emissions from denitrification to nitrification, although the uncertainty envelopes are large

A revised 1000 year atmospheric δ\u3csup\u3e13\u3c/sup\u3e C-CO2 record from Law Dome and South Pole, Antarctica

We present new measurements of δ13C of CO2 extracted from a high-resolution ice core from Law Dome (East Antarctica), together with firn measurements performed at Law Dome and South Pole, covering the last 150 years. Our analysis is motivated by the need to better understand the role and feedback of the carbon (C) cycle in climate change, by advances in measurement methods, and by apparent anomalies when comparing ice core and firn air δ13C records from Law Dome and South Pole. We demonstrate improved consistency between Law Dome ice, South Pole firn, and the Cape Grim (Tasmania) atmospheric δ13C data, providing evidence that our new record reliably extends direct atmospheric measurements back in time. We also show a revised version of early δ13C measurements covering the last 1000 years, with a mean preindustrial level of -6.50‰. Finally, we use a Kalman Filter Double Deconvolution to infer net natural CO2 fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and land, which cause small δ13C deviations from the predominant anthropogenically induced δ13C decrease. The main features found from the previous δ13C record are confirmed, including the ocean as the dominant cause for the 1940 A.D. CO2 leveling. Our new record provides a solid basis for future investigation of the causes of decadal to centennial variations of the preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. Those causes are of potential significance for predicting future CO2 levels and when attempting atmospheric verification of recent and future global carbon emission mitigation measures through Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Models. Key Points New and revised, firn and ice δ13C-CO2 measurements from Antarctica Improve consistency between ice and firn δ13C-CO2 measurements Net natural CO2 fluxes between atmosphere, ocean and land inferred ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere 1950–2010 atmospheric non-methane hydrocarbons

The short-chain non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) are mostly emitted into the atmosphere by anthropogenic processes. Recent studies have pointed out a tight linkage between the atmospheric mole fractions of the NMHC ethane and the atmospheric growth rate of methane. Consequently, atmospheric NMHC are valuable indicators for tracking changes in anthropogenic emissions, photochemical ozone production, and greenhouse gases. This study investigates the 1950–2010 Northern Hemisphere atmospheric C₂–C₅ NMHC ethane, propane, <i>i</i>-butane, <i>n</i>-butane, <i>i</i>-pentane, and <i>n</i>-pentane by (a) reconstructing atmospheric mole fractions of these trace gases using firn air extracted from three boreholes in 2008 and 2009 at the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) site and applying state-of-the-art models of trace gas transport in firn, and by (b) considering eight years of ambient NMHC monitoring data from five Arctic sites within the NOAA Global Monitoring Division (GMD) Cooperative Air Sampling Network. Results indicate that these NMHC increased by ~40–120% after 1950, peaked around 1980 (with the exception of ethane, which peaked approximately 10 yr earlier), and have since dramatically decreased to be now back close to 1950 levels. The earlier peak time of ethane vs. the C₃–C₅ NMHC suggests that different processes and emissions mitigation measures contributed to the decline in these NMHC. The 60 yr record also illustrates notable increases in the ratios of the isomeric <i>iso-/n</i>-butane and <i>iso-/n</i>-pentane ratios. Comparison of the reconstructed NMHC histories with 1950–2000 volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions data and with other recently published ethane trend analyses from ambient air Pacific transect data showed (a) better agreement with North America and Western Europe emissions than with total Northern Hemisphere emissions data, and (b) better agreement with other Greenland firn air data NMHC history reconstructions than with the Pacific region trends. These analyses emphasize that for NMHC, having atmospheric lifetimes on the order of < 2 months, the Greenland firn air records are primarily a representation of Western Europe and North America emission histories

Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia patients with multiple genetic variants in the PACES CPVT Registry.

BACKGROUND: Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) is often a life-threatening arrhythmia disorder with variable penetrance and expressivity. Little is known about the incidence or outcomes of CPVT patients with ≥2 variants. METHODS: The phenotypes, genotypes and outcomes of patients in the Pediatric and Congenital Electrophysiology Society CPVT Registry with ≥2 variants in genes linked to CPVT were ascertained. The American College of Medical Genetics & Genomics (ACMG) criteria and structural mapping were used to predict the pathogenicity of variants (3D model of pig RyR2 in open-state). RESULTS: Among 237 CPVT subjects, 193 (81%) had genetic testing. Fifteen patients (8%) with a median age of 9 years (IQR 5-12) had ≥2 variants. Sudden cardiac arrest occurred in 11 children (73%), although none died during a median follow-up of 4.3 years (IQR 2.5-6.1). Thirteen patients (80%) had at least two RYR2 variants, while the remaining two patients had RYR2 variants plus variants in other CPVT-linked genes. Among all variants identified, re-classification of the commercial laboratory interpretation using ACMG criteria led to the upgrade from variant of unknown significance (VUS) to pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) for 5 variants, and downgrade from P/LP to VUS for 6 variants. For RYR2 variants, 3D mapping using the RyR2 model suggested that 2 VUS by ACMG criteria were P/LP, while 2 variants were downgraded to likely benign. CONCLUSIONS: This severely affected cohort demonstrates that a minority of CPVT cases are related to ≥2 variants, which may have implications on family-based genetic counselling. While multi-variant CPVT patients were at high-risk for sudden cardiac arrest, there are insufficient data to conclude that this genetic phenomenon has prognostic implications at present. Further research is needed to determine the significance and generalizability of this observation. This study also shows that a rigorous approach to variant re-classification using the ACMG criteria and 3D mapping is important in reaching an accurate diagnosis, especially in the multi-variant population

Rising atmospheric methane: 2007-2014 growth and isotopic shift

From 2007 to 2013, the globally averaged mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere increased by 5.7±1.2ppb yr$^{-1}$. Simultaneously, $\delta^{13}$C$_\text{CH4}$ (a measure of the $^{13}$C/$^{12}$C isotope ratio in methane) has shifted to significantly more negative values since 2007. Growth was extreme in 2014, at 12.5±0.4ppb, with a further shift to more negative values being observed at most latitudes. The isotopic evidence presented here suggests that the methane rise was dominated by significant increases in biogenic methane emissions, particularly in the tropics, for example, from expansion of tropical wetlands in years with strongly positive rainfall anomalies or emissions from increased agricultural sources such as ruminants and rice paddies. Changes in the removal rate of methane by the OH radical have not been seen in other tracers of atmospheric chemistry and do not appear to explain short-term variations in methane. Fossil fuel emissions may also have grown, but the sustained shift to more $^{13}$C-depleted values and its significant interannual variability, and the tropical and Southern Hemisphere loci of post-2007 growth, both indicate that fossil fuel emissions have not been the dominant factor driving the increase. A major cause of increased tropical wetland and tropical agricultural methane emissions, the likely major contributors to growth, may be their responses to meteorological change.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council projects NE/N016211/1 The Global Methane Budget, NE/M005836/1 Methane at the edge, NE/K006045/1 The Southern Methane Anomaly and NE/I028874/1 MAMM. We thank the UK Meteorological Office for flask collection and hosting the continuous measurement at Ascension, the Ascension Island Government for essential support, and Thumeka Mkololo for flask collection in Cape Tow

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800 000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3 ppm, CH4 at 808.2 ppb and N2O at 273.0 ppb. The data are available at https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality)