The management of financial risks: the possible failure of an important tool

The growth of the Internet has forced companies to invest in the field of risk management. Several risk management tools, such as creating a risk culture, participatory management, categorization system, and monitoring unit, have been developed. However, it is essential to understand how risk management has evolved in recent years and how to carry out effective risk management. This essay aims to answer important questions related to the nature of risks faced by firms, their analysis and measurement, the possibility of anticipating and preventing them, and the transformation of companies' management due to the evolution of risks. The advent of the Internet has had a profound impact on the business landscape, necessitating the adoption of robust risk management practices. To effectively manage risks, it is crucial to understand and analyze the various risks to which businesses are exposed. This involves developing a risk culture within the organization, implementing participatory management approaches, utilizing categorization systems, and establishing dedicated monitoring units. Anticipation and prevention play a crucial role in mitigating risks and ensuring the long-term sustainability of businesses. The transformation of business management is heavily influenced by the evolving nature of risks, calling for adaptability and proactive strategies. By integrating multidisciplinary theoretical frameworks into risk management practices, its effectiveness and comprehensiveness can be enhanced.   Paper Type: Theoretical Research JEL Classification: G32, D81, M10 Keywords: Risk management, Internet, risk culture, participatory management, categorization system, monitoring unit, risk governance.La croissance de l'Internet a obligé les entreprises à investir dans le domaine de la gestion des risques. Plusieurs outils de gestion des risques, tels que la culture du risque, la gestion participative, le système de catégorisation et l'unité de surveillance ont été développés. Cependant, il est essentiel de comprendre comment la gestion des risques a évolué ces dernières années et comment mener une gestion des risques efficace. Cet article vise à répondre à des questions majeures liées à la nature des risques auxquels les entreprises sont exposées, tout en les analysant, les mesurant et en examinant la possibilité de les anticiper et de les prévenir. Il sera également question d'appréhender la transformation de la gestion des entreprises en raison de l'évolution des risques. L'avènement d'Internet a eu un impact profond sur le paysage commercial, nécessitant l'adoption de pratiques solides de gestion des risques. Pour gérer efficacement les risques, il est essentiel de comprendre et d'analyser les différents risques auxquels les entreprises sont exposées. Cela implique de développer une culture du risque au sein de l'organisation, de mettre en œuvre des approches de gestion participative, d'utiliser des systèmes de catégorisation et de mettre en place des unités de contrôle spécialisées. L'anticipation et la prévention jouent un rôle crucial dans l'atténuation des risques et la viabilité à long terme des entreprises. La transformation de la gestion des entreprises est fortement influencée par la nature évolutive des risques, ce qui exige une capacité d'adaptation et des stratégies proactives. L'intégration de cadres théoriques pluridisciplinaires dans les pratiques de gestion des risques permet d'en améliorer l'efficacité et l'exhaustivité.   Type de papier : Article de recherche Classification JEL : G32, D81, M10 Mots-clés: Gestion des risques, Internet, culture du risque, gestion participative, système de catégorisation, cellule de veille, gouvernance des risques

La modélisation de la probabilité de défaut par la régression logistique et son impact sur les résultats bancaires.

Les techniques de modélisation de la probabilité de défaut sont multiples. De ce fait, dans cet article nous allons utiliser la régression logistique pour déterminer la relation entre le défaut et les caractéristiques des entreprises et la construction des outils de notation interne. La réglementation bancaire impose aux banques la constitution d’une provision pour risques et charges pour couvrir la perte de crédit attendue, et ce, en conformité avec les dispositions de la norme IFRS 9. De ce fait, les banques doivent utiliser leurs modèles internes que ce soit dans le cadre de l’approche IRB fondation ou avancée. Notre objectif est de proposer une démarche de construction des outils de notation basés sur la régression logistique et d’évaluer la provision pour risques et charges destinée à couvrir la perte attendue. De ce fait, nous allons modéliser la défaillance par la régression logistique, etnous allons utiliser l’approche IRB fondation pour déterminer la perte attendue

Vers un modèle théorique qui explique le mécanisme du système d’intelligence économique au sein des entreprises financières marocaines : Analyse descriptive à partir des données d’enquête

This work aims to propose a model that explains the mechanism of the evaluation of the economic intelligence system within Moroccan financial companies. This model is based on an "action research" paradigm that emphasizes the measurement of skills related to the economic intelligence system. In fact, three dimensions have been identified, in particular technological, organizational and decision-making skills. The context chosen to conduct this research is that of Moroccan financial companies. Indeed, the Moroccan financial system is known for its far-reaching reforms, structural changes linked to capital markets, and fundamental modernization inspired by prudential rules where it was essential to ensure a new model in terms of processing information specific to companies and those affecting the sector as a whole. In a completely random framework, a sample of 44 financial companies with equity securities was selected. The finding aid is based on a questionnaire survey. The first results show that the data collected is characterized by a certain uniformity compared to the model chosen. It turns out that the problem of data homogeneity is maintained and the statistics of dispersion and central tendency reflect characteristics common to all Moroccan financial companies. In addition, the research therefore concludes that the model chosen and fully adapted to the context of Moroccan financial companies.   Classification JEL: C10, C83, Y10 Paper type: Empirical researchCe travail a pour objectif de proposer un modèle qui explique le mécanisme de l’évaluation du système d’intelligence économique au sein des entreprises financières marocaines. Ce modèle est basé sur un paradigme « recherche-action » qui met l’accent sur la mesure des aptitudes liées au système d’intelligence économique. En effet, trois dimensions ont été identifiées notamment les aptitudes technologiques, organisationnelles et décisionnelles. Le contexte choisi pour mener cette recherche est celui des entreprises financières marocaines. En effet, le système financier marocain est connu par ses réformes profondes, par des changements structurels liés aux marchés de capitaux, et une modernisation fondamentale qui s’inspirent des règles prudentielles où il a été primordial d’assurer un nouveau modèle en matière de traitement des informations propres aux entreprises et celles qui touchent le secteur dans sa globalité. Dans un cadre totalement aléatoire, un échantillon de 44 entreprises financières possédant des titres de participations a été sélectionné. L’instrument de recherche est basé sur une enquête par questionnaire. Les premiers résultats montrent que les données collectées se caractérisent par une certaine uniformité par rapport au modèle choisi. Il se trouve que la problématique de l’homogénéité des données est maintenue et les statistiques de dispersion et de tendance centrale reflètent des caractéristiques communes à toutes les entreprises financières marocaines. En plus, la recherche conclue en conséquence que le modèle choisit et tout à fait adapté au contexte des entreprises financières marocaines.   Classification JEL: C10, C83, Y10 Type de l’article : Recherche appliqué

Gouvernance des compétences et dynamique des organisations publiques marocaines

This article briefly discusses the evolution of the human factor within Moroccan public organizations and the difficulties these organizations face. We used the qualitative method through the hypothetical-deductive approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted on a sample of administrative agents and various categories of civil servants, which resulted in a total number of 139 individuals, while knowing that the survey began from July 2019 to February 2020, we carried out this survey on the actors of the Moroccan public administration: the agents (recruitment, training, promotion, evaluation, etc.) and discovered how their competences are managed. This critical perception of the current state of skills governance sheds light on the field of research in Morocco by taking stock of the decisions taken in terms of skills management and the conditions required for its revitalization, bringing out this organization. of his lethargy faced for several decades. Another survey focused on 124 individuals (users) benefiting from the services offered by public organizations in order to analyze their attitudes and satisfaction with regard to the services offered to them by the public administration, and therefore know the economic and social impact of the reforms implemented. All the suggestions of the people interviewed make us notice a certain parallelism and analogy between the proposals concerning the Moroccan administration and its agents, the two converge on an essential point which is that of the motivation of the agents, the sanitation of the administration and its modernization to bring it out of its lethargy.   JEL Classification :  M12 Paper type : Empirical researchCet article traite brièvement de l’évolution de facteur humain au sein des organisations publiques marocaines et des difficultés auxquelles ces organisations sont confrontées. Nous avons utilisé la méthode qualitative à travers la démarche hypothético-déductive. Des entretiens semi-directifs ont été menés sur un échantillon d’agents administratifs et diverses catégories de fonctionnaires, ce qui a abouti à un effectif total de 139 individus, tout en sachant que l’enquête a débuté de juillet 2019 à février 2020.Nous avons mené cette enquête sur les acteurs de l’administration publique marocaine : les agents (recrutement, formation, promotion, évaluation, etc.) et avons décelé comment leurs compétences sont gérées. Cette perception critique de l’état actuel de la gouvernance des compétences éclaire le champ des recherches au Maroc en faisant l’état des lieux sur les décisions prises en matière de gestion des compétences et des conditions requises pour sa redynamisation, afin de faire sortir cette organisation de sa léthargie confrontée depuis plusieurs décennies. Une autre enquête a porté sur 124 individus (usagers) bénéficiaires des services offerts par les organisations publiques en vue d’analyser leurs attitudes et leur satisfaction à l’égard des services qui leurs sont offerts par l’administration publique, et du coup savoir les retombées économiques et sociales des réformes mises en œuvre. L’ensemble des suggestions des personnes interviewées nous fait remarquer un certain parallélisme et analogie entre les propositions concernant l’administration marocaine et ses agents, les deux convergent vers un point essentiel qui est celui de la motivation des agents, de l’assainissement de l’administration et de sa modernisation pour la faire ressortir de sa léthargie.     Classification JEL : M12  Type de l’article : Recherche appliqué

External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. Results Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. Conclusions The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. (c) 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Peer reviewe

Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10 years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37 years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| < 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.