A statistical analysis of well production rates from UK oil and gas fields – Implications for carbon capture and storage

The number of wells required to dispose of global CO2 emissions by injection into geological formations is of interest as a key indicator of feasible deployment rate, scale and cost. Estimates have largely been driven by forecasts of sustainable injection rate from mathematical modelling of the CO2 injection process. Recorded fluid production rates from oil and gas fields can be considered an observable analogue in this respect. The article presents statistics concerning Cumulative average Bulk fluid Production (CBP) rates per well for 104 oil and gas fields from the UK offshore region. The term bulk fluid production is used here to describe the composite volume of oil, gas and water produced at reservoir conditions. Overall, the following key findings are asserted: (1) CBP statistics for UK offshore oil and gas fields are similar to those observed for CO2 injection projects worldwide. (2) 50% probability of non-exceedance (PNE) for CBP for oil and gas fields without water flood is around 0.35 Mt/yr/well of CO2 equivalent. (3) There is negligible correlation between reservoir transmissivity and CBP. (4) Study of net and gross CBP for water flood fields suggest a 50% PNE that brine co-production during CO2 injection could lead to a 20% reduction in the number of wells required

Bayesian system identification of dynamical systems using highly informative training data

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian system identification of structural dynamical systems using experimentally obtained training data. It is motivated by situations where, from a large quantity of training data, one must select a subset to infer probabilistic models. To that end, using concepts from information theory, expressions are derived which allow one to approximate the effect that a set of training data will have on parameter uncertainty as well as the plausibility of candidate model structures. The usefulness of this concept is then demonstrated through the system identification of several dynamical systems using both physics-based and emulator models. The result is a rigorous scientific framework which can be used to select 'highly informative' subsets from large quantities of training data

Pulse Dynamics in a Chain of Granules With Friction

We study the dynamics of a pulse in a chain of granules with friction. We present theories for chains of cylindrical granules (Hertz potential with exponent $n=2$) and of granules with other geometries ($n>2$). Our results are supported via numerical simulations for cylindrical and for spherical granules ($n=5/2$).Comment: Submitted to PR

Adaptive cluster expansion for the inverse Ising problem: convergence, algorithm and tests

We present a procedure to solve the inverse Ising problem, that is to find the interactions between a set of binary variables from the measure of their equilibrium correlations. The method consists in constructing and selecting specific clusters of variables, based on their contributions to the cross-entropy of the Ising model. Small contributions are discarded to avoid overfitting and to make the computation tractable. The properties of the cluster expansion and its performances on synthetic data are studied. To make the implementation easier we give the pseudo-code of the algorithm.Comment: Paper submitted to Journal of Statistical Physic

Collinear helium under periodic driving: stabilization of the asymmetric stretch orbit

The collinear eZe configuration of helium, with the electrons on opposite sides of the nucleus, is studied in the presence of an external electromagnetic (laser or microwave) field. We show that the classically unstable "asymmetric stretch" orbit, on which doubly excited intrashell states of helium with maximum interelectronic angle are anchored, can be stabilized by means of a resonant driving where the frequency of the electromagnetic field equals the frequency of Kepler-like oscillations along the orbit. A static magnetic field, oriented parallel to the oscillating electric field of the driving, can be used to enforce the stability of the configuration with respect to deviations from collinearity. Quantum Floquet calculations within a collinear model of the driven two-electron atom reveal the existence of nondispersive wave packets localized on the stabilized asymmetric stretch orbit, for double excitations corresponding to principal quantum numbers of the order of N > 10.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figure

Study protocol: Australasian Registry of Severe Cutaneous Adverse Reactions (AUS-SCAR)

Introduction Severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) are a group of T cell-mediated hypersensitivities associated with significant morbidity, mortality and hospital costs. Clinical phenotypes include Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS), toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) and acute generalised exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). In this Australasian, multicentre, prospective registry, we plan to examine the clinical presentation, drug causality, genomic predictors, potential diagnostic approaches, treatments and long-term outcomes of SCAR in Australia and New Zealand. Methods and analysis Adult and adolescent patients with SCAR including SJS, TEN, DRESS, AGEP and another T cell-mediated hypersensitivity, generalised bullous fixed drug eruption, will be prospectively recruited. A waiver of consent has been granted for some sites to retrospectively include cases which result in early mortality. DNA will be collected for all prospective cases. Blood, blister fluid and skin biopsy sampling is optional and subject to patient consent and site capacity. To develop culprit drug identification and prevention, genomic testing will be performed to confirm human leukocyte antigen (HLA) type and ex vivo testing will be performed via interferon-γ release enzyme linked immunospot assay using collected peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The long-term outcomes of SCAR will be investigated with a 12-month quality of life survey and examination of prescribing and mortality data. Ethics and dissemination This study was reviewed and approved by the Austin Health Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/50791/Austin-19). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant conferences

Physics of Solar Prominences: I - Spectral Diagnostics and Non-LTE Modelling

This review paper outlines background information and covers recent advances made via the analysis of spectra and images of prominence plasma and the increased sophistication of non-LTE (ie when there is a departure from Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium) radiative transfer models. We first describe the spectral inversion techniques that have been used to infer the plasma parameters important for the general properties of the prominence plasma in both its cool core and the hotter prominence-corona transition region. We also review studies devoted to the observation of bulk motions of the prominence plasma and to the determination of prominence mass. However, a simple inversion of spectroscopic data usually fails when the lines become optically thick at certain wavelengths. Therefore, complex non-LTE models become necessary. We thus present the basics of non-LTE radiative transfer theory and the associated multi-level radiative transfer problems. The main results of one- and two-dimensional models of the prominences and their fine-structures are presented. We then discuss the energy balance in various prominence models. Finally, we outline the outstanding observational and theoretical questions, and the directions for future progress in our understanding of solar prominences.Comment: 96 pages, 37 figures, Space Science Reviews. Some figures may have a better resolution in the published version. New version reflects minor changes brought after proof editin

Probabilistic active learning : an online framework for structural health monitoring

A novel, probabilistic framework for the classification, investigation and labelling of data is suggested as an online strategy for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). A critical issue for data-based SHM is a lack of descriptive labels (for measured data), which correspond to the condition of the monitored system. For many applications, these labels are costly and/or impractical to obtain, and as a result, conventional supervised learning is not feasible. This fact forces a dependence on outlier analysis, or one-class classifiers, in practical applications, as a means of damage detection. The model suggested in this work, however, allows for the definition of a multi-class classifier, to aid both damage detection and identification, while using a limited number of the most informative labelled data. The algorithm is applied to three datasets in the online setting; the Z24 bridge data, a machining (acoustic emission) dataset, and measurements from ground vibration aircraft tests. In the experiments, active learning is shown to improve the online classification performance for damage detection and classification

Prognostic refinement of NSMP high-risk endometrial cancers using oestrogen receptor immunohistochemistry

Background: Risk-assessment of endometrial cancer (EC) is based on clinicopathological factors and molecular subgroup. It is unclear whether adding hormone receptor expression, L1CAM expression or CTNNB1 status yields prognostic refinement. Methods: Paraffin-embedded tumour samples of women with high-risk EC (HR-EC) from the PORTEC-3 trial (n = 424), and a Dutch prospective clinical cohort called MST (n = 256), were used. All cases were molecularly classified. Expression of L1CAM, ER and PR were analysed by whole-slide immunohistochemistry and CTNNB1 mutations were assessed with a next-generation sequencing. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests and Cox's proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis. Results: In total, 648 HR-EC were included. No independent prognostic value of ER, PR, L1CAM, and CTNNB1 was found, while age, stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy had an independent impact on risk of recurrence. Subgroup-analysis showed that only in NSMP HR-EC, ER-positivity was independently associated with a reduced risk of recurrence (HR 0.33, 95%CI 0.15-0.75). Conclusions: We confirmed the prognostic impact of the molecular classification, age, stage, and adjuvant CTRT in a large cohort of high-risk EC. ER-positivity is a strong favourable prognostic factor in NSMP HR-EC and identifies a homogeneous subgroup of NSMP tumours. Assessment of ER status in high-risk NSMP EC is feasible in clinical practice and could improve risk stratification and treatment.Biological, physical and clinical aspects of cancer treatment with ionising radiatio

Looking forward through the past: identification of 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology

1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance. 2. To date, there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology, which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on time-scales from decades to millions of years. 3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners. 4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection. 5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human–environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long time-scales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology. 6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management