A new approach to generating research-quality data through citizen science: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

Phenology is one of the most sensitive biological responses to climate change, and recent changes in phenology have the potential to shake up ecosystems. In some cases, it appears they already are. Thus, for ecological reasons it is critical that we improve our understanding of species’ phenologies and how these phenologies are responding to recent, rapid climate change. Phenological events like flowering and bird migrations are easy to observe, culturally important, and, at a fundamental level, naturally inspire human curiosity— thus providing an excellent opportunity to engage citizen scientists. The USA National Phenology Network has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change.

Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific dates at which individual phenological events are observed. The scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations could be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”), which makes it very appropriate for a citizen science audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for statistical analyses addressing questions such as how phenological events vary in time and space, and in response to global change. This new protocol is an important step forward, and its widespread adoption will increase the scientific value of data collected by citizen scientists.
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Climatic versus biotic constraints on carbon and water fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine ecosystems

We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE

Vertical zonation of testate amoebae in the Elatia Mires, northern Greece : palaeoecological evidence for a wetland response to recent climate change or autogenic processes?

The Elatia Mires of northern Greece are unique ecosystems of high conservation value. The mires are climatically marginal and may be sensitive to changing hydroclimate, while northern Greece has experienced a significant increase in aridity since the late twentieth century. To investigate the impact of recent climatic change on the hydrology of the mires, the palaeoecological record was investigated from three near-surface monoliths extracted from two sites. Testate amoebae were analysed as sensitive indicators of hydrology. Results were interpreted using transfer function models to provide quantitative reconstructions of changing water table depth and pH. AMS radiocarbon dates and 210Pb suggest the peats were deposited within the last c. 50 years, but do not allow a secure chronology to be established. Results from all three profiles show a distinct shift towards a more xerophilic community particularly noted by increases in Euglypha species. Transfer function results infer a distinct lowering of water tables in this period. A hydrological response to recent climate change is a tenable hypothesis to explain this change; however other possible explanations include selective test decay, vertical zonation of living amoebae, ombrotrophication and local hydrological change. It is suggested that a peatland response to climatic change is the most probable hypothesis, showing the sensitivity of marginal peatlands to recent climatic change

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Eating disorders: from twin studies to candidate genes and beyond

Substantial effort has been put into the exploration of the biological background of eating disorders, through family, twin and molecular genetic studies. Family studies have shown that anorexia (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are strongly familial, and that familial etiologic factors appear to be shared by both disorders. Twin studies often focus on broader phenotypes or subthreshold eating disorders. These studies consistently yielded moderate to substantial heritabilities. In addition, there has been a proliferation of molecular genetic studies that focused on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; DSM-IV; American Psychiatric Association, 1994) AN and BN. Seven linkage regions have been identified in genome-wide screens. Many genetic association studies have been performed, but no consistent association between a candidate gene and AN or BN has been reported. Larger genetic association studies and collaborations are needed to examine the involvement of several candidate genes and biological pathways in eating disorders. In addition, twin studies should be designed to assist the molecular work by further exploring genetic determinants of endophenotypes, evaluating the magnitude of contribution to liability of measured genotypes as well as environmental risk factors related to eating disorders. In this manner twin and molecular studies can move the field forward in a mutually informative way

Facilitation or Competition? Tree Effects on Grass Biomass across a Precipitation Gradient

Savanna ecosystems are dominated by two distinct plant life forms, grasses and trees, but the interactions between them are poorly understood. Here, we quantified the effects of isolated savanna trees on grass biomass as a function of distance from the base of the tree and tree height, across a precipitation gradient in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results suggest that mean annual precipitation (MAP) mediates the nature of tree-grass interactions in these ecosystems, with the impact of trees on grass biomass shifting qualitatively between 550 and 737 mm MAP. Tree effects on grass biomass were facilitative in drier sites (MAP≤550 mm), with higher grass biomass observed beneath tree canopies than outside. In contrast, at the wettest site (MAP = 737 mm), grass biomass did not differ significantly beneath and outside tree canopies. Within this overall precipitation-driven pattern, tree height had positive effect on sub-canopy grass biomass at some sites, but these effects were weak and not consistent across the rainfall gradient. For a more synthetic understanding of tree-grass interactions in savannas, future studies should focus on isolating the different mechanisms by which trees influence grass biomass, both positively and negatively, and elucidate how their relative strengths change over broad environmental gradients. © 2013 Moustakas et al

The effect of temperature on growth and competition between Sphagnum species

Peat bogs play a large role in the global sequestration of C, and are often dominated by different Sphagnum species. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how Sphagnum vegetation in peat bogs will respond to global warming. We performed a greenhouse experiment to study the effect of four temperature treatments (11.2, 14.7, 18.0 and 21.4°C) on the growth of four Sphagnum species: S. fuscum and S. balticum from a site in northern Sweden and S. magellanicum and S. cuspidatum from a site in southern Sweden. In addition, three combinations of these species were made to study the effect of temperature on competition. We found that all species increased their height increment and biomass production with an increase in temperature, while bulk densities were lower at higher temperatures. The hollow species S. cuspidatum was the least responsive species, whereas the hummock species S. fuscum increased biomass production 13-fold from the lowest to the highest temperature treatment in monocultures. Nutrient concentrations were higher at higher temperatures, especially N concentrations of S. fuscum and S. balticum increased compared to field values. Competition between S. cuspidatum and S. magellanicum was not influenced by temperature. The mixtures of S. balticum with S. fuscum and S. balticum with S. magellanicum showed that S. balticum was the stronger competitor, but it lost competitive advantage in the highest temperature treatment. These findings suggest that species abundances will shift in response to global warming, particularly at northern sites where hollow species will lose competitive strength relative to hummock species and southern species

Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

Changes in the structure of plant communities may have much more impact on ecosystem carbon (C) cycling than any phenotypic responses to environmental changes. We studied these impacts via the response of plant litter quality, at the level of species and community, to persistent water-level (WL) drawdown in peatlands. We studied three sites with different nutrient regimes, and water-level manipulations at two time scales. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), Klason lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C and several nutrients. The litters formed four chemically distinct groups: non-graminoid foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. Direct effects of WL drawdown on litter quality at the species level were overruled by indirect effects via changes in litter type composition. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litters. Short-term (years) responses of the litter inputs to WL drawdown were small. In longterm (decades), total litter inputs increased, due to increased tree litter inputs. Simultaneously, the litter type composition and its chemical quality at the community level greatly changed. The changes that we documented will strongly affect soil properties and C cycle of peatlands.Peer reviewe

Climatic predictors of species distributions neglect biophysiologically meaningful variables

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) have played a pivotal role in predicting how species might respond to climate change. To generate reliable and realistic predictions from these models requires the use of climate variables that adequately capture physiological responses of species to climate and therefore provide a proximal link between climate and their distributions. Here, we examine whether the climate variables used in plant SDMs are different from those known to influence directly plant physiology. Location: Global. Methods: We carry out an extensive, systematic review of the climate variables used to model the distributions of plant species and provide comparison to the climate variables identified as important in the plant physiology literature. We calculate the top ten SDM and physiology variables at 2.5 degree spatial resolution for the globe and use principal component analyses and multiple regression to assess similarity between the climatic variation described by both variable sets. Results: We find that the most commonly used SDM variables do not reflect the most important physiological variables and differ in two main ways: (i) SDM variables rely on seasonal or annual rainfall as simple proxies of water available to plants and neglect more direct measures such as soil water content; and (ii) SDM variables are typically averaged across seasons or years and overlook the importance of climatic events within the critical growth period of plants. We identify notable differences in their spatial gradients globally and show where distal variables may be less reliable proxies for the variables to which species are known to respond. Main conclusions: There is a growing need for the development of accessible, fine-resolution global climate surfaces of physiological variables. This would provide a means to improve the reliability of future range predictions from SDMs and support efforts to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate