GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems

This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.</p

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections. Plain Language Summary Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge are complex, fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, ESMs are expensive to run and no single ESM can easily produce responses which represent the full range of uncertainties. Instead, for some applications, computationally efficient reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) are used in a probabilistic setup. An example of these applications is estimating the likelihood that an emissions scenario will stay below a certain global-mean temperature change. Here we present a study (referred to as the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) Phase 2) which investigates the extent to which different RCMs can be probabilistically calibrated to reproduce knowledge from specialized research communities. We find that the agreement between each RCM and the benchmarks varies, although the best performing models show good agreement across the majority of benchmarks. Under a very-low-emissions scenario median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, assuming historical warming of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Investigating new ways to reduce these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to limit warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term

Dirty and 40 days in the wilderness: Eliciting childbirth and postnatal cultural practices and beliefs in Nepal.

Background: Pregnancy and childbirth are socio-cultural events that carry varying meanings across different societies and cultures. These are often translated into social expectations of what a particular society expects women to do (or not to do) during pregnancy, birth and/or the postnatal period. This paper reports a study exploring beliefs around childbirth in Nepal, a low-income country with a largely Hindu population. The paper then sets these findings in the context of the wider global literature around issues such as periods where women are viewed as polluted (or dirty even) after childbirth. Methods: A qualitative study comprising five in-depth face-to-face interviews and 14 focus group discussions with mainly women, but also men and health service providers. The qualitative findings in Nepal were compared and contrasted with the literature on practices and cultural beliefs related to the pregnancy and childbirth period across the globe and at different times in history. Results: The themes that emerged from the analysis included: (a) cord cutting & placenta rituals; (b) rest & seclusion; (c) purification, naming & weaning ceremonies and (d) nutrition and breastfeeding. Physiological changes in mother and baby may underpin the various beliefs, ritual and practices in the postnatal period. These practices often mean women do not access postnatal health services. Conclusions: The cultural practices, taboos and beliefs during pregnancy and around childbirth found in Nepal largely resonate with those reported across the globe. This paper stresses that local people’s beliefs and practices offer both opportunities and barriers to health service providers. Maternity care providers need to be aware of local values, beliefs and traditions to anticipate and meet the needs of women, gain their trust and work with them

Measurement of charged jet suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN \sqrt{{{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}}} = 2.76 TeV

A measurement of the transverse momentum spectra of jets in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76TeV is reported. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles using the anti-k T jet algorithm with jet resolution parameters R of 0.2 and 0.3 in pseudo-rapidity |η| < 0.5. The transverse momentum p T of charged particles is measured down to 0.15 GeV/c which gives access to the low p T fragments of the jet. Jets found in heavy-ion collisions are corrected event-by-event for average background density and on an inclusive basis (via unfolding) for residual background fluctuations and detector effects. A strong suppression of jet production in central events with respect to peripheral events is observed. The suppression is found to be similar to the suppression of charged hadrons, which suggests that substantial energy is radiated at angles larger than the jet resolution parameter R = 0.3 considered in the analysis. The fragmentation bias introduced by selecting jets with a high p T leading particle, which rejects jets with a soft fragmentation pattern, has a similar effect on the jet yield for central and peripheral events. The ratio of jet spectra with R = 0.2 and R = 0.3 is found to be similar in Pb-Pb and simulated PYTHIA pp events, indicating no strong broadening of the radial jet structure in the reconstructed jets with R < 0.3

90-річчя члена-кореспондента НАН України Г.К. Степанковської

The p(T)-differential production cross section of electrons from semileptonic decays of heavy-flavor hadrons has been measured at midrapidity in proton-proton collisions at root s = 2.76 TeV in the transverse momentum range 0.5 < p(T) < 12 GeV/c with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The analysis was performed using minimum bias events and events triggered by the electromagnetic calorimeter. Predictions from perturbative QCD calculations agree with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties

Loss of cholinergic innervation differentially affects eNOS-mediated blood flow, drainage of Aβ and cerebral amyloid angiopathy in the cortex and hippocampus of adult mice

Vascular dysregulation and cholinergic basal forebrain degeneration are both early pathological events in the development of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Acetylcholine contributes to localised arterial dilatation and increased cerebral blood flow (CBF) during neurovascular coupling via activation of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS). Decreased vascular reactivity is suggested to contribute to impaired clearance of β-amyloid (Aβ) along intramural periarterial drainage (IPAD) pathways of the brain, leading to the development of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). However, the possible relationship between loss of cholinergic innervation, impaired vasoreactivity and reduced clearance of Aβ from the brain has not been previously investigated. In the present study, intracerebroventricular administration of mu-saporin resulted in significant death of cholinergic neurons and fibres in the medial septum, cortex and hippocampus of C57BL/6 mice. Arterial spin labelling MRI revealed a loss of CBF response to stimulation of eNOS by the Rho-kinase inhibitor fasudil hydrochloride in the cortex of denervated mice. By contrast, the hippocampus remained responsive to drug treatment, in association with altered eNOS expression. Fasudil hydrochloride significantly increased IPAD in the hippocampus of both control and saporin-treated mice, while increased clearance from the cortex was only observed in control animals. Administration of mu-saporin in the TetOAPPSweInd mouse model of AD was associated with a significant and selective increase in Aβ40-positive CAA. These findings support the importance of the interrelationship between cholinergic innervation and vascular function in the aetiology and/or progression of CAA and suggest that combined eNOS/cholinergic therapies may improve the efficiency of Aβ removal from the brain and reduce its deposition as CAA