La pertinence des données météo ouvertes pour les services de conseils agrométéorologiques [Éthiopie]

L'utilisation de données ouvertes dans le domaine de la météorologie pourrait répondre aux besoins d'information des systèmes de conseils agrométérologiques. Mais les données ouvertes sont-elles parfaitement adaptées ? Sont-elles fiables, pertinentes, actuelles et disponibles ? Le projet CommonSense en faveur des petits exploitants d'Éthiopie fournit des éléments de réponse à ces questions

Machine learning for regional crop yield forecasting in Europe

Crop yield forecasting at national level relies on predictors aggregated from smaller spatial units to larger ones according to harvested crop areas. Such crop areas come from land cover maps or reported statistics, both of which can have errors and uncertainties. Sub-national or regional crop yield forecasting minimizes the propagation of these errors to some extent. In addition, regional forecasts provide added value and insights to stakeholders on regional differences within a country, which would otherwise compensate each other at national level. We propose a crop yield forecasting approach for multiple spatial levels based on regional crop yield forecasts from machine learning. Machine learning, with its data-driven approach, can leverage larger data sizes and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and yield at regional level. We designed a generic machine learning workflow to demonstrate the benefits of regional crop yield forecasting in Europe. To evaluate the quality and usefulness of regional forecasts, we predicted crop yields for 35 case studies, including nine countries that are major producers of six crops (soft wheat, spring barley, sunflower, grain maize, sugar beets and potatoes). Machine learning models at regional level had lower normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSE) and uncertainty than a linear trend model, with Wilcoxon p-values of 3e-7 and 2e-7 for 60 days before harvest and end of season respectively. Similarly, regional machine learning forecasts aggregated to national level had lower NRMSEs than forecasts from an operational system in 18 out of 35 cases 60 days before harvest, with a Wilcoxon p-value of 0.95 indicating similar performance. Our models have room for improvement, especially during extreme years. Nevertheless, regional crop yield forecasts from machine learning and aggregated national forecasts provide a consistent forecasting method across spatial levels and insights from regional differences to support important policy decisions

Rapid viral rebound after analytical treatment interruption in patients with very small HIV reservoir and minimal on-going viral transcription

Introduction: Viral remission after analytical treatment interruption (ATI), termed post-treatment control, has been described in a small proportion of HIV-positive patients. This phenomenon has been separately associated to both low levels of HIV-1 proviral DNA as well as cell-associated RNA. We investigated whether the combination of both parameters could help predict delayed viral rebound after treatment interruption (TI). Methods: We conducted an open single-arm ATI study in four Belgian HIV reference centres from January 2016 to July 2018. Eligible participants were adults who had fewer than 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL for more than two years, more than 500 CD4 cells/mu L for more than three months, and were in general good health. Consenting participants who had fewer than 66 copies total HIV-1 DNA (t-DNA) and fewer than 10 copies cell-associated HIV-1 unspliced RNA (US-RNA) per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), interrupted therapy and were monitored closely. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was resumed after two consecutive viral loads exceeding 1000 copies or one exceeding 10,000 copies/mL. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with fewer than 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL 48 weeks after TI. Secondary outcomes were time to viral rebound, the frequency of serious adverse events (AEs) and evolution of t-DNA and US-RNA after TI. Results: All 16 consenting participants who interrupted therapy experienced rapid viral rebound two to eight weeks after TI. No serious AEs were observed. Levels of t-DNA and US-RNA increased after TI but returned to pre-ATI levels after treatment restart. None of the studied demographic, clinical and biological parameters were predictive of time of viral rebound. Conclusions: The combination of low levels of t-DNA and US-RNA in PBMCs, corresponding respectively to a small and transcriptionally silent viral reservoir, is not predictive of viral remission after TI in patients on ART

Increased yield stability of field-grown winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) varietal mixtures through ecological processes

Crop variety mixtures have the potential to increase yield stability in highly variable and unpredictable environments, yet knowledge of the specific mechanisms underlying enhanced yield stability has been limited. Ecological processes in genetically diverse crops were investigated by conducting field trials with winter barley varieties (Hordeum vulgare), grown as monocultures or as three-way mixtures in fungicide treated and untreated plots at three sites. Mixtures achieved yields comparable to the best performing monocultures whilst enhancing yield stability despite being subject to multiple predicted and unpredicted abiotic and biotic stresses including brown rust (Puccinia hordei) and lodging. There was compensation through competitive release because the most competitive variety overyielded in mixtures thereby compensating for less competitive varieties. Facilitation was also identified as an important ecological process within mixtures by reducing lodging. This study indicates that crop varietal mixtures have the capacity to stabilise productivity even when environmental conditions and stresses are not predicted in advance. Varietal mixtures provide a means of increasing crop genetic diversity without the need for extensive breeding efforts. They may confer enhanced resilience to environmental stresses and thus be a desirable component of future cropping systems for sustainable arable farming

The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset

The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives. © 2019, The Author(s)

TOWARD THE MINIMUM INNER EDGE DISTANCE OF THE HABITABLE ZONE

We explore the minimum distance from a host star where an exoplanet could potentially be habitable in order not to discard close-in rocky exoplanets for follow-up observations. We find that the inner edge of the Habitable Zone for hot desert worlds can be as close as 0.38 AU around a solar-like star, if the greenhouse effect is reduced (~1% relative humidity) and the surface albedo is increased. We consider a wide range of atmospheric and planetary parameters such as the mixing ratios of greenhouse gases (water vapor and CO[subscript 2]), surface albedo, pressure, and gravity. Intermediate surface pressure (~1-10 bars) is necessary to limit water loss and to simultaneously sustain an active water cycle. We additionally find that the water loss timescale is influenced by the atmospheric CO[subscript 2] level, because it indirectly influences the stratospheric water mixing ratio. If the CO[subscript 2] mixing ratio of dry planets at the inner edge is smaller than 10[superscript –4], the water loss timescale is ~1 billion years, which is considered here too short for life to evolve. We also show that the expected transmission spectra of hot desert worlds are similar to an Earth-like planet. Therefore, an instrument designed to identify biosignature gases in an Earth-like atmosphere can also identify similarly abundant gases in the atmospheres of dry planets. Our inner edge limit is closer to the host star than previous estimates. As a consequence, the occurrence rate of potentially habitable planets is larger than previously thought

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods: In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results: Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ¿10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001) Conclusion: Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods: In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results: Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ¿10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001) Conclusion: Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions

Efficacy, durability, and tolerability of bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide for the treatment of HIV in a real-world setting in Belgium.

peer reviewed[en] OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to evaluate the efficacy, durability, and tolerability of bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (BIC/FTC/TAF) in a real-world setting in Belgium. METHODS: This was a retrospective, multicentre cohort study involving adult treatment-naïve (TN) and treatment-experienced (TE) people living with HIV receiving BIC/FTC/TAF between 1 January 2019 and 30 September 2020. The primary outcome was rate of virological suppression (plasma HIV-1 viral load 200 copies/mL after being virologically suppressed) by week 48 and analysis of resistance-associated mutations at time of LVS; tolerability of BIC/FTC/TAF over the 48-week study period; and change in weight and proportion of participants reporting a >10% weight gain at week 48. RESULTS: Overall, 2001 participants were included. Through 48 weeks, overall rate of virological suppression was 93.5%, with similar results observed in the following subgroups: age ≥50 years (92.7%), women (92.8%), Black sub-Saharan African (91%), TN (94%), TE (93.2%), and non-suppressed at baseline (86.6%). LVS was observed in 0.7% (n = 14) of participants, with one participant developing resistance-associated mutations to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (184 V) and integrase strand transfer inhibitors (263KR). Of the 131 (6.5%) treatment discontinuations, the most common reason was an adverse event (2.4%), with the most frequent being central nervous system/psychiatric (0.4%) and gastrointestinal (0.4%) toxicity. Median weight gain at week 48 was 2 kg (interquartile range -1 to 5), and a >10% weight increase was observed in 11.6% of participants. CONCLUSION: In this large real-world cohort, BIC/FTC/TAF showed excellent virological efficacy in a diverse population of patients with HIV. Rare occurrence of emergent drug resistance was observed, and treatment was well tolerated