Are Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise?

Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. Working Paper 07-2

Lesions mimicking lacrimal gland pleomorphic adenoma

Aim: To report a series of patients with lacrimal gland lesions simulating the clinicoradiological features of lacrimal gland pleomorphic adenoma (LGPA). Methods: Multicentre retrospective, interventional case series. Clinical records of all patients with lesions mimicking LGPA seen in five orbital units were reviewed. Results: The study included 14 patients (seven men and seven women) with a mean age of 50.9 years. The diagnosis of LGPA was made in all cases by experienced orbital surgeons, based on clinicoradiological features, and lacrimal gland excision was performed. Postoperative histology revealed lymphoma (four patients), chronic dacryoadenitis (three patients), adenoid cystic carcinoma (two patients), Sjogren's syndrome (two patients), cavernous haemangioma (one patient), benign lymphoid hyperplasia (one patient) and granulomatous dacryoadenitis (one patient). Comparison with the total number of histologically confirmed LGPA cases seen during the study period revealed that 22.6% of cases of suspected LGPA were misdiagnosed based on clinicoradiological criteria. Conclusions: Many different lesions may mimic the clinicoradiological features of LGPA. The accepted clinicoradiological criteria used for the diagnosis of LGPA have a high false-positive rate, even in experienced hands. Based on this study, the authors believe that fine-needle aspiration biopsy or intraoperative biopsy and frozen section diagnosis may help reduce unnecessary lacrimal gland excision.Venkatesh C Prabhakaran, Paul S Cannon, Alan McNab, Garry Davis, Brett O’Donnell, Peter J Dolman, Raf Ghabrial, Dinesh Selv

Study of B−→DK−π+π−B^{-}\to DK^-\pi^+\pi^- and B−→Dπ−π+π−B^-\to D\pi^-\pi^+\pi^- decays and determination of the CKM angle γ\gamma

We report a study of the suppressed $B^-\to DK^-\pi^+\pi^-$ and favored $B^-\to D\pi^-\pi^+\pi^-$ decays, where the neutral $D$ meson is detected through its decays to the $K^{\mp}\pi^{\pm}$ and CP-even $K^+K^-$ and $\pi^+\pi^-$ final states. The measurement is carried out using a proton-proton collision data sample collected by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0~fb$^{-1}$. We observe the first significant signals in the CP-even final states of the $D$ meson for both the suppressed $B^-\to DK^-\pi^+\pi^-$ and favored $B^-\to D\pi^-\pi^+\pi^-$ modes, as well as in the doubly Cabibbo-suppressed $D\to K^+\pi^-$ final state of the $B^-\to D\pi^-\pi^+\pi^-$ decay. Evidence for the ADS suppressed decay $B^{-}\to DK^-\pi^+\pi^-$, with $D\to K^+\pi^-$, is also presented. From the observed yields in the $B^-\to DK^-\pi^+\pi^-$, $B^-\to D\pi^-\pi^+\pi^-$ and their charge conjugate decay modes, we measure the value of the weak phase to be $\gamma=(74^{+20}_{-19})^{\rm o}$. This is one of the most precise single-measurement determinations of $\gamma$ to date.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures; All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2015-020.htm

Differential branching fraction and angular analysis of Λb0→Λμ+μ−\Lambda^{0}_{b} \rightarrow \Lambda \mu^+\mu^- decays

The differential branching fraction of the rare decay $\Lambda^{0}_{b} \rightarrow \Lambda \mu^+\mu^-$ is measured as a function of $q^{2}$, the square of the dimuon invariant mass. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 \mbox{ fb}^{-1}, collected by the LHCb experiment. Evidence of signal is observed in the $q^2$ region below the square of the $J/\psi$ mass. Integrating over 15 < q^{2} < 20 \mbox{ GeV}^2/c^4 the branching fraction is measured as d\mathcal{B}(\Lambda^{0}_{b} \rightarrow \Lambda \mu^+\mu^-)/dq^2 = (1.18 ^{+ 0.09} _{-0.08} \pm 0.03 \pm 0.27) \times 10^{-7} ( \mbox{GeV}^{2}/c^{4})^{-1}, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and due to the normalisation mode, $\Lambda^{0}_{b} \rightarrow J/\psi \Lambda$, respectively. In the $q^2$ intervals where the signal is observed, angular distributions are studied and the forward-backward asymmetries in the dimuon ($A^{l}_{\rm FB}$) and hadron ($A^{h}_{\rm FB}$) systems are measured for the first time. In the range 15 < q^2 < 20 \mbox{ GeV}^2/c^4 they are found to be A^{l}_{\rm FB} = -0.05 \pm 0.09 \mbox{ (stat)} \pm 0.03 \mbox{ (syst)} and A^{h}_{\rm FB} = -0.29 \pm 0.07 \mbox{ (stat)} \pm 0.03 \mbox{ (syst)}.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures, Erratum adde

Altered thymic differentiation and modulation of arthritis by invariant NKT cells expressing mutant ZAP70

Various subsets of invariant natural killer T (iNKT) cells with different cytokine productions develop in the mouse thymus, but the factors driving their differentiation remain unclear. Here we show that hypomorphic alleles of Zap70 or chemical inhibition of Zap70 catalysis leads to an increase of IFN-gamma-producing iNKT cells (NKT1 cells), suggesting that NKT1 cells may require a lower TCR signal threshold. Zap70 mutant mice develop IL-17-dependent arthritis. In a mouse experimental arthritis model, NKT17 cells are increased as the disease progresses, while NKT1 numbers negatively correlates with disease severity, with this protective effect of NKT1 linked to their IFN-gamma expression. NKT1 cells are also present in the synovial fluid of arthritis patients. Our data therefore suggest that TCR signal strength during thymic differentiation may influence not only IFN-gamma production, but also the protective function of iNKT cells in arthritis

Measurement of the mass and lifetime of the Ωb−\Omega_b^- baryon

A proton-proton collision data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$ collected by LHCb at $\sqrt{s}=7$ and 8 TeV, is used to reconstruct $63\pm9$ $\Omega_b^-\to\Omega_c^0\pi^-$, $\Omega_c^0\to pK^-K^-\pi^+$ decays. Using the $\Xi_b^-\to\Xi_c^0\pi^-$, $\Xi_c^0\to pK^-K^-\pi^+$ decay mode for calibration, the lifetime ratio and absolute lifetime of the $\Omega_b^-$ baryon are measured to be \begin{align*} \frac{\tau_{\Omega_b^-}}{\tau_{\Xi_b^-}} &= 1.11\pm0.16\pm0.03, \\ \tau_{\Omega_b^-} &= 1.78\pm0.26\pm0.05\pm0.06~{\rm ps}, \end{align*} where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and from the calibration mode (for $\tau_{\Omega_b^-}$ only). A measurement is also made of the mass difference, $m_{\Omega_b^-}-m_{\Xi_b^-}$, and the corresponding $\Omega_b^-$ mass, which yields \begin{align*} m_{\Omega_b^-}-m_{\Xi_b^-} &= 247.4\pm3.2\pm0.5~{\rm MeV}/c^2, \\ m_{\Omega_b^-} &= 6045.1\pm3.2\pm 0.5\pm0.6~{\rm MeV}/c^2. \end{align*} These results are consistent with previous measurements.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-008.htm

Search for the rare decays B0→J/ψγB^{0}\to J/\psi \gamma and Bs0→J/ψγB^{0}_{s} \to J/\psi \gamma

A search for the rare decay of a $B^{0}$ or $B^{0}_{s}$ meson into the final state $J/\psi\gamma$ is performed, using data collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ and $8$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$. The observed number of signal candidates is consistent with a background-only hypothesis. Branching fraction values larger than $1.7\times 10^{-6}$ for the $B^{0}\to J/\psi\gamma$ decay mode are excluded at 90% confidence level. For the $B^{0}_{s}\to J/\psi\gamma$ decay mode, branching fraction values larger than $7.4\times 10^{-6}$ are excluded at 90% confidence level, this is the first branching fraction limit for this decay.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2015-044.htm

Model-independent evidence for J/ψpJ/\psi p contributions to Λb0→J/ψpK−\Lambda_b^0\to J/\psi p K^- decays

The data sample of $\Lambda_b^0\to J/\psi p K^-$ decays acquired with the LHCb detector from 7 and 8~TeV $pp$ collisions, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$, is inspected for the presence of $J/\psi p$ or $J/\psi K^-$ contributions with minimal assumptions about $K^- p$ contributions. It is demonstrated at more than 9 standard deviations that $\Lambda_b^0\to J/\psi p K^-$ decays cannot be described with $K^- p$ contributions alone, and that $J/\psi p$ contributions play a dominant role in this incompatibility. These model-independent results support the previously obtained model-dependent evidence for $P_c^+\to J/\psi p$ charmonium-pentaquark states in the same data sample.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures (including the supplemental section added at the end

A model-independent confirmation of the Z(4430)−Z(4430)^- state

The decay $B^0\to \psi(2S) K^+\pi^-$ is analyzed using $\rm 3~fb^{-1}$ of $pp$ collision data collected with the LHCb detector. A model-independent description of the $\psi(2S) \pi$ mass spectrum is obtained, using as input the $K\pi$ mass spectrum and angular distribution derived directly from data, without requiring a theoretical description of resonance shapes or their interference. The hypothesis that the $\psi(2S)\pi$ mass spectrum can be described in terms of $K\pi$ reflections alone is rejected with more than 8$\sigma$ significance. This provides confirmation, in a model-independent way, of the need for an additional resonant component in the mass region of the $Z(4430)^-$ exotic state.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2015-038.htm