A Paleontologia no Serviço Geológico do Brasil: CPRM

Abstrac

Automação do acervo Paleontológico da coleção do Museu de Ciências da Terra / DNPM-RJ e sua disponibilização na internet

Resum

A Coleção de Peixes Fósseis do Museu de Ciências da Terra, Rio de Janeiro

The fossil collection of the Museu de Ciências da Terra/RJ consists of six sub-collections (Microfossils, Paleoinvertebrates, Paleobotanics, Fish, Reptiles and Mammals) and has an invaluable historical importance. In addition, the great number of specimens of great representation of Brazilian sedimentary basins is fundamental to paleontologists and other research scientists. As the collection is organized by the number of the registry book, the analysis and correlations of basins without these numbers are difficult to perform. The aim of this paper is to present a quantitative analysis of the fossil fish collection of the Museu de Ciências da Terra, showing the representation of Brazilian sedimentary basins, with special attention to the Araripe basin because of its greatest number of specimens. Besides including foreign material, the collection of fossil fish represents 17 sedimentary basins. The Araripe Basin has 27,7% of the entire paleoictiological collection, with a total of 24 genera and one identified specimen only in the family taxonomic level. The organization of this data becomes essential to many Brazilian and foreign researchers that seek information about collection samples represented in Brazilian sedimentary basins. Thus, the BASE PALEO can enter the “Basin” field to make this informationavailable on the internet.O acervo de fósseis do Museu de Ciências da Terra (MCT), no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, é constituído por seis subcoleções (Microfósseis, Paleoinvertebrados, Paleobotânica, Peixes, Répteis e Mamíferos) e possui uma inestimável importância histórica. Além disso, é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de pesquisas do ramo da Paleontologia e áreas afins, em função do grande número de exemplares com grande representatividade das bacias sedimentares brasileiras. Como a organização do acervo é feita através do número de tombo, muitas vezes, trabalhos referentes à análise e correlação de bacias ficam mais difíceis de serem realizados sem o conhecimento prévio desses números. Com o objetivo de facilitar o atendimento a pesquisadores para a realização desse tipo de estudo, o presente trabalho mostra uma análise quantitativa do acervo de peixes fósseis do Museu de Ciências da Terra/RJ, destacando a sua representação nas bacias sedimentares brasileiras, com ênfase na Bacia do Araripe, visto que esta é a que apresenta maior número de exemplares. Além de possuir material estrangeiro, o acervo de peixes fósseis apresenta ocorrências em 17 bacias sedimentares brasileiras. A Bacia do Araripe apresenta 27,7% de todo acervo paleoictiológico, com o total de 24 gêneros e um espécime identificado apenas no nível taxonômico de família. A organização desses dados se torna essencial para muitos pesquisadores brasileiros e estrangeiros que procuram informações sobre a representatividade dos exemplares da coleção nas bacias sedimentares brasileiras. Dessa forma, a BASE PALEO poderá introduzir o campo “Bacia” para disponibilizar essas informações na internet

Goodbye Hartmann trial: a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study on the current use of a surgical procedure developed a century ago

Background: Literature suggests colonic resection and primary anastomosis (RPA) instead of Hartmann's procedure (HP) for the treatment of left-sided colonic emergencies. We aim to evaluate the surgical options globally used to treat patients with acute left-sided colonic emergencies and the factors that leading to the choice of treatment, comparing HP and RPA. Methods: This is a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. A total 1215 patients with left-sided colonic emergencies who required surgery were included from 204 centers during the period of March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. with a 1-year follow-up. Results: 564 patients (43.1%) were females. The mean age was 65.9 ± 15.6 years. HP was performed in 697 (57.3%) patients and RPA in 384 (31.6%) cases. Complicated acute diverticulitis was the most common cause of left-sided colonic emergencies (40.2%), followed by colorectal malignancy (36.6%). Severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3b) were higher in the HP group (P < 0.001). 30-day mortality was higher in HP patients (13.7%), especially in case of bowel perforation and diffused peritonitis. 1-year follow-up showed no differences on ostomy reversal rate between HP and RPA. (P = 0.127). A backward likelihood logistic regression model showed that RPA was preferred in younger patients, having low ASA score (≤ 3), in case of large bowel obstruction, absence of colonic ischemia, longer time from admission to surgery, operating early at the day working hours, by a surgeon who performed more than 50 colorectal resections. Conclusions: After 100 years since the first Hartmann's procedure, HP remains the most common treatment for left-sided colorectal emergencies. Treatment's choice depends on patient characteristics, the time of surgery and the experience of the surgeon. RPA should be considered as the gold standard for surgery, with HP being an exception

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Taking the pulse of Earth's tropical forests using networks of highly distributed plots

Tropical forests are the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. While better understanding of these forests is critical for our collective future, until quite recently efforts to measure and monitor them have been largely disconnected. Networking is essential to discover the answers to questions that transcend borders and the horizons of funding agencies. Here we show how a global community is responding to the challenges of tropical ecosystem research with diverse teams measuring forests tree-by-tree in thousands of long-term plots. We review the major scientific discoveries of this work and show how this process is changing tropical forest science. Our core approach involves linking long-term grassroots initiatives with standardized protocols and data management to generate robust scaled-up results. By connecting tropical researchers and elevating their status, our Social Research Network model recognises the key role of the data originator in scientific discovery. Conceived in 1999 with RAINFOR (South America), our permanent plot networks have been adapted to Africa (AfriTRON) and Southeast Asia (T-FORCES) and widely emulated worldwide. Now these multiple initiatives are integrated via ForestPlots.net cyber-infrastructure, linking colleagues from 54 countries across 24 plot networks. Collectively these are transforming understanding of tropical forests and their biospheric role. Together we have discovered how, where and why forest carbon and biodiversity are responding to climate change, and how they feedback on it. This long-term pan-tropical collaboration has revealed a large long-term carbon sink and its trends, as well as making clear which drivers are most important, which forest processes are affected, where they are changing, what the lags are, and the likely future responses of tropical forests as the climate continues to change. By leveraging a remarkably old technology, plot networks are sparking a very modern revolution in tropical forest science. In the future, humanity can benefit greatly by nurturing the grassroots communities now collectively capable of generating unique, long-term understanding of Earth's most precious forests.Additional co-authors: Susan Laurance, William Laurance, Francoise Yoko Ishida, Andrew Marshall, Catherine Waite, Hannsjoerg Woell, Jean-Francois Bastin, Marijn Bauters, Hans Beeckman, Pfascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Charles De Canniere, Thales de Haulleville, Jean-Louis Doucet, Olivier Hardy, Wannes Hubau, Elizabeth Kearsley, Hans Verbeeck, Jason Vleminckx, Steven W. Brewer, Alfredo Alarcón, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Ezequiel Chavez, Todd Fredericksen, René Guillén Villaroel, Gloria Gutierrez Sibauty, Timothy Killeen, Juan Carlos Licona, John Lleigue, Casimiro Mendoza, Samaria Murakami, Alexander Parada Gutierrez, Guido Pardo, Marielos Peña-Claros, Lourens Poorter, Marisol Toledo, Jeanneth Villalobos Cayo, Laura Jessica Viscarra, Vincent Vos, Jorge Ahumada, Everton Almeida, Jarcilene Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Wesley Alves da Cruz, Atila Alves de Oliveira, Fabrício Alvim Carvalho, Flávio Amorim Obermuller, Ana Andrade, Fernanda Antunes Carvalho, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Ana Carla Aquino, Luiz Aragão, Ana Claudia Araújo, Marco Antonio Assis, Jose Ataliba Mantelli Aboin Gomes, Fabrício Baccaro, Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, Paulo Barni, Jorcely Barroso, Luis Carlos Bernacci, Kauane Bordin, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Igor Broggio, José Luís Camargo, Domingos Cardoso, Maria Antonia Carniello, Andre Luis Casarin Rochelle, Carolina Castilho, Antonio Alberto Jorge Farias Castro, Wendeson Castro, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Flávia Costa, Rodrigo Costa de Oliveira, Italo Coutinho, John Cunha, Lola da Costa, Lucia da Costa Ferreira, Richarlly da Costa Silva, Marta da Graça Zacarias Simbine, Vitor de Andrade Kamimura, Haroldo Cavalcante de Lima, Lia de Oliveira Melo, Luciano de Queiroz, José Romualdo de Sousa Lima, Mário do Espírito Santo, Tomas Domingues, Nayane Cristina dos Santos Prestes, Steffan Eduardo Silva Carneiro, Fernando Elias, Gabriel Eliseu, Thaise Emilio, Camila Laís Farrapo, Letícia Fernandes, Gustavo Ferreira, Joice Ferreira, Leandro Ferreira, Socorro Ferreira, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, Maria Aparecida Freitas, Queila S. García, Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Paulo Graça, Frederico Guilherme, Eduardo Hase, Niro Higuchi, Mariana Iguatemy, Reinaldo Imbrozio Barbosa, Margarita Jaramillo, Carlos Joly, Joice Klipel, Iêda Leão do Amaral, Carolina Levis, Antonio S. Lima, Maurício Lima Dan, Aline Lopes, Herison Madeiros, William E. Magnusson, Rubens Manoel dos Santos, Beatriz Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Roberta Marotti Martelletti Grillo, Luiz Martinelli, Simone Matias Reis, Salomão Medeiros, Milton Meira-Junior, Thiago Metzker, Paulo Morandi, Natanael Moreira do Nascimento, Magna Moura, Sandra Cristina Müller, Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, Marcelo Nascimento, Adriano Nogueira Lima, Raimunda Oliveira de Araújo, Jhonathan Oliveira Silva, Marcelo Pansonato, Gabriel Pavan Sabino, Karla Maria Pedra de Abreu, Pablo José Francisco Pena Rodrigues, Maria Piedade, Domingos Rodrigues, José Roberto Rodrigues Pinto, Carlos Quesada, Eliana Ramos, Rafael Ramos, Priscyla Rodrigues, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Rafael Salomão, Flávia Santana, Marcos Scaranello, Rodrigo Scarton Bergamin, Juliana Schietti, Jochen Schöngart, Gustavo Schwartz, Natalino Silva, Marcos Silveira, Cristiana Simão Seixas, Marta Simbine, Ana Claudia Souza, Priscila Souza, Rodolfo Souza, Tereza Sposito, Edson Stefani Junior, Julio Daniel do Vale, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Dora Villela, Marcos Vital, Haron Xaud, Katia Zanini, Charles Eugene Zartman, Nur Khalish Hafizhah Ideris, Faizah binti Hj Metali, Kamariah Abu Salim, Muhd Shahruney Saparudin, Rafizah Mat Serudin, Rahayu Sukmaria Sukri, Serge Begne, George Chuyong, Marie Noel Djuikouo, Christelle Gonmadje, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Bonaventure Sonké, Hermann Taedoumg, Lise Zemagho, Sean Thomas, Fidèle Baya, Gustavo Saiz, Javier Silva Espejo, Dexiang Chen, Alan Hamilton, Yide Li, Tushou Luo, Shukui Niu, Han Xu, Zhang Zhou, Esteban Álvarez-Dávila, Juan Carlos Andrés Escobar, Henry Arellano-Peña, Jaime Cabezas Duarte, Jhon Calderón, Lina Maria Corrales Bravo, Borish Cuadrado, Hermes Cuadros, Alvaro Duque, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Sandra Milena Espinosa, Rebeca Franke-Ante, Hernando García, Alejandro Gómez, Roy González-M., Álvaro Idárraga-Piedrahíta, Eliana Jimenez, Rubén Jurado, Wilmar López Oviedo, René López-Camacho, Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz, Irina Mendoza Polo, Edwin Paky, Karen Pérez, Angel Pijachi, Camila Pizano, Adriana Prieto, Laura Ramos, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, James Richardson, Elkin Rodríguez, Gina M. Rodriguez M., Agustín Rudas, Pablo Stevenson, Markéta Chudomelová, Martin Dancak, Radim Hédl, Stanislav Lhota, Martin Svatek, Jacques Mukinzi, Corneille Ewango, Terese Hart, Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Janvier Lisingo, Jean-Remy Makana, Faustin Mbayu, Benjamin Toirambe, John Tshibamba Mukendi, Lars Kvist, Gustav Nebel, Selene Báez, Carlos Céron, Daniel M. Griffith, Juan Ernesto Guevara Andino, David Neill, Walter Palacios, Maria Cristina Peñuela-Mora, Gonzalo Rivas-Torres, Gorky Villa, Sheleme Demissie, Tadesse Gole, Techane Gonfa, Kalle Ruokolainen, Michel Baisie, Fabrice Bénédet, Wemo Betian, Vincent Bezard, Damien Bonal, Jerôme Chave, Vincent Droissart, Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury, Annette Hladik, Nicolas Labrière, Pétrus Naisso, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Plinio Sist, Lilian Blanc, Benoit Burban, Géraldine Derroire, Aurélie Dourdain, Clement Stahl, Natacha Nssi Bengone, Eric Chezeaux, Fidèle Evouna Ondo, Vincent Medjibe, Vianet Mihindou, Lee White, Heike Culmsee, Cristabel Durán Rangel, Viviana Horna, Florian Wittmann, Stephen Adu-Bredu, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Ernest Foli, Michael Balinga, Anand Roopsind, James Singh, Raquel Thomas, Roderick Zagt, Indu K. Murthy, Kuswata Kartawinata, Edi Mirmanto, Hari Priyadi, Ismayadi Samsoedin, Terry Sunderland, Ishak Yassir, Francesco Rovero, Barbara Vinceti, Bruno Hérault, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Kanehiro Kitayama, Armandu Daniels, Darlington Tuagben, John T. Woods, Muhammad Fitriadi, Alexander Karolus, Kho Lip Khoon, Noreen Majalap, Colin Maycock, Reuben Nilus, Sylvester Tan, Almeida Sitoe, Indiana Coronado G., Lucas Ojo, Rafael de Assis, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Douglas Sheil, Karen Arévalo Pezo, Hans Buttgenbach Verde, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jimmy Cesar Cordova Oroche, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Jano de Rutte Corzo, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Luis Freitas, Darcy Galiano Cabrera, Roosevelt García Villacorta, Karina Garcia Cabrera, Diego García Soria, Leticia Gatica Saboya, Julio Miguel Grandez Rios, Gabriel Hidalgo Pizango, Eurídice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Yuri Tomas Huillca Aedo, Jose Luis Marcelo Peña, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Vanesa Moreano Rodriguez, Percy Núñez Vargas, Sonia Cesarina Palacios Ramos, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Antonio Peña Cruz, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, José Reyna Huaymacari, Carlos Reynel Rodriguez, Marcos Antonio Ríos Paredes, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Rocio del Pilar Rojas Gonzales, Maria Elena Rojas Peña, Norma Salinas Revilla, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Raul Tupayachi Trujillo, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Jim Vega Arenas, Christian Amani, Suspense Averti Ifo, Yannick Bocko, Patrick Boundja, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Mireille Hockemba, Donatien Nzala, Alusine Fofanah, David Taylor, Guillermo Bañares-de Dios, Luis Cayuela, Íñigo Granzow-de la Cerda, Manuel Macía, Juliana Stropp, Maureen Playfair, Verginia Wortel, Toby Gardner, Robert Muscarella, Hari Priyadi, Ervan Rutishauser, Kuo-Jung Chao, Pantaleo Munishi, Olaf Bánki, Frans Bongers, Rene Boot, Gabriella Fredriksson, Jan Reitsma, Hans ter Steege, Tinde van Andel, Peter van de Meer, Peter van der Hout, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Bert van Ulft, Elmar Veenendaal, Ronald Vernimmen, Pieter Zuidema, Joeri Zwerts, Perpetra Akite, Robert Bitariho, Colin Chapman, Eilu Gerald, Miguel Leal, Patrick Mucunguzi, Miguel Alexiades, Timothy R. Baker, Karina Banda, Lindsay Banin, Jos Barlow, Amy Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Neil M. Bird, George A. Blackburn, Francis Brearley, Roel Brienen, David Burslem, Lidiany Carvalho, Percival Cho, Fernanda Coelho, Murray Collins, David Coomes, Aida Cuni-Sanchez, Greta Dargie, Kyle Dexter, Mat Disney, Freddie Draper, Muying Duan, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Robert Ewers, Belen Fadrique, Sophie Fauset, Ted R. Feldpausch, Filipe França, David Galbraith, Martin Gilpin, Emanuel Gloor, John Grace, Keith Hamer, David Harris, Tommaso Jucker, Michelle Kalamandeen, Bente Klitgaard, Aurora Levesley, Simon L. Lewis, Jeremy Lindsell, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Jon Lovett, Yadvinder Malhi, Toby Marthews, Emma McIntosh, Karina Melgaço, William Milliken, Edward Mitchard, Peter Moonlight, Sam Moore, Alexandra Morel, Julie Peacock, Kelvin Peh, Colin Pendry, R. Toby Pennington, Luciana de Oliveira Pereira, Carlos Peres, Oliver L. Phillips, Georgia Pickavance, Thomas Pugh, Lan Qie, Terhi Riutta, Katherine Roucoux, Casey Ryan, Tiina Sarkinen, Camila Silva Valeria, Dominick Spracklen, Suzanne Stas, Martin Sullivan, Michael Swaine, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, Geertje van der Heijden, Laura Vedovato, Simon Willcock, Mathew Williams, Luciana Alves, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Gabriel Arellano, Cheryl Asa, Peter Ashton, Gregory Asner, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Robyn Burnham, Connie Clark, James Comiskey, Gabriel Damasco, Stuart Davies, Tony Di Fiore, Terry Erwin, William Farfan-Rios, Jefferson Hall, David Kenfack, Thomas Lovejoy, Roberta Martin, Olga Martha Montiel, John Pipoly, Nigel Pitman, John Poulsen, Richard Primack, Miles Silman, Marc Steininger, Varun Swamy, John Terborgh, Duncan Thomas, Peter Umunay, Maria Uriarte, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Ophelia Wang, Kenneth Young, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Lionel Hernández, Rafael Herrera Fernández, Hirma Ramírez-Angulo, Pedro Salcedo, Elio Sanoja, Julio Serrano, Armando Torres-Lezama, Tinh Cong Le, Trai Trong Le, Hieu Dang Tra

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

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