The impact of methodological decisions on climate reconstructions using WA-PLS

Most techniques for pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction use modern assemblages as a reference data set. We examine the implication of methodological choices in the selection and treatment of the reference data set for climate reconstructions using Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) regression, using records of the last glacial period from Europe. We show that the training data set used is important, because it determines the climate space sampled. The range and continuity of sampling along the climate gradient is more important than sampling density. Reconstruction uncertainties are generally reduced when more taxa are included, but combining related taxa that are poorly sampled in the data set to a higher taxonomic level provides more stable reconstructions. Excluding taxa that are climatically insensitive, or systematically over-represented in fossil pollen assemblages because of known biases in pollen production or transport, makes no significant difference to the reconstructions. However, the exclusion of taxa over-represented because of preservation issues does produce an improvement. These findings are relevant not only for WA-PLS reconstructions but also for similar approaches using modern assemblage reference data. There is no universal solution to these issues, but we propose a number of checks to evaluate the robustness of pollen-based reconstructions

Coherent vertical electron transport and interface roughness effects in AlGaN/GaN intersubband devices

We investigate electron transport in epitaxially-grown nitride-based resonant tunneling diodes (RTDs) and superlattice sequential tunneling devices. A density-matrix model is developed, and shown to reproduce the experimentally measured features of the current–voltage curves, with its dephasing terms calculated from semi-classical scattering rates. Lifetime broadening effects are shown to have a significant influence in the experimental data. Additionally, it is shown that the interface roughness geometry has a large effect on current magnitude, peak-to-valley ratios and misalignment features; in some cases eliminating negative differential resistance entirely in RTDs. Sequential tunneling device characteristics are dominated by a parasitic current that is most likely to be caused by dislocations, however excellent agreement between the simulated and experimentally measured tunneling current magnitude and alignment bias is demonstrated. This analysis of the effects of scattering lifetimes, contact doping and growth quality on electron transport highlights critical optimization parameters for the development of III-nitride unipolar electronic and optoelectronic devices

Decaying Dark Matter in the Supersymmetric Standard Model with Freeze-in and Seesaw mechanims

Inspired by the decaying dark matter (DM) which can explain cosmic ray anomalies naturally, we consider the supersymmetric Standard Model with three right-handed neutrinos (RHNs) and R-parity, and introduce a TeV-scale DM sector with two fields \phi_{1,2} and a $Z_3$ discrete symmetry. The DM sector only interacts with the RHNs via a very heavy field exchange and then we can explain the cosmic ray anomalies. With the second right-handed neutrino N_2 dominant seesaw mechanism at the low scale around 10^4 GeV, we show that \phi_{1,2} can obtain the vacuum expectation values around the TeV scale, and then the lightest state from \phi_{1,2} is the decay DM with lifetime around \sim 10^{26}s. In particular, the DM very long lifetime is related to the tiny neutrino masses, and the dominant DM decay channels to \mu and \tau are related to the approximate \mu-\tau symmetry. Furthermore, the correct DM relic density can be obtained via the freeze-in mechanism, the small-scale problem for power spectrum can be solved due to the decays of the R-parity odd meta-stable states in the DM sector, and the baryon asymmetry can be generated via the soft leptogensis.Comment: 24 pages,3 figure

On occurrence of spectral edges for periodic operators inside the Brillouin zone

The article discusses the following frequently arising question on the spectral structure of periodic operators of mathematical physics (e.g., Schroedinger, Maxwell, waveguide operators, etc.). Is it true that one can obtain the correct spectrum by using the values of the quasimomentum running over the boundary of the (reduced) Brillouin zone only, rather than the whole zone? Or, do the edges of the spectrum occur necessarily at the set of ``corner'' high symmetry points? This is known to be true in 1D, while no apparent reasons exist for this to be happening in higher dimensions. In many practical cases, though, this appears to be correct, which sometimes leads to the claims that this is always true. There seems to be no definite answer in the literature, and one encounters different opinions about this problem in the community. In this paper, starting with simple discrete graph operators, we construct a variety of convincing multiply-periodic examples showing that the spectral edges might occur deeply inside the Brillouin zone. On the other hand, it is also shown that in a ``generic'' case, the situation of spectral edges appearing at high symmetry points is stable under small perturbations. This explains to some degree why in many (maybe even most) practical cases the statement still holds.Comment: 25 pages, 10 EPS figures. Typos corrected and a reference added in the new versio

Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: An ecological perspective

© 2021 The Author(s).Recent extreme wildfire seasons in several regions have been associated with exceptionally hot, dry conditions, made more probable by climate change. Much research has focused on extreme fire weather and its drivers, but natural wildfire regimes—and their interactions with human activities—are far from being comprehensively understood. There is a lack of clarity about the 'causes' of wildfire, and about how ecosystems could be managed for the co-existence of wildfire and people. We present evidence supporting an ecosystem-centred framework for improved understanding and modelling of wildfire. Wildfire has a long geological history and is a pervasive natural process in contemporary plant communities. In some biomes, wildfire would be more frequent without human settlement; in others they would be unchanged or less frequent. A world without fire would have greater forest cover, especially in present-day savannas. Many species would be missing, because fire regimes have co-evolved with plant traits that resist, adapt to or promote wildfire. Certain plant traits are favoured by different fire frequencies, and may be missing in ecosystems that are normally fire-free. For example, post-fire resprouting is more common among woody plants in high-frequency fire regimes than where fire is infrequent. The impact of habitat fragmentation on wildfire crucially depends on whether the ecosystem is fire-adapted. In normally fire-free ecosystems, fragmentation facilitates wildfire starts and is detrimental to biodiversity. In fire-adapted ecosystems, fragmentation inhibits fires from spreading and fire suppression is detrimental to biodiversity. This interpretation explains observed, counterintuitive patterns of spatial correlation between wildfire and potential ignition sources. Lightning correlates positively with burnt area only in open ecosystems with frequent fire. Human population correlates positively with burnt area only in densely forested regions. Models for vegetation-fire interactions must be informed by insights from fire ecology to make credible future projections in a changing climate.We gratefully acknowledge support from the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, who organized the virtual mini-workshop which initiated the writing of this paper. RKN is supported by the Leverhulme Centre. SPH and YS acknowledge support from the ERC-funded project GC2.0 (Global Change 2.0: Unlocking the past for a clearer future, Grant Number 694481). ICP, KJB and ND acknowledge support from the ERC-funded project REALM (Re-inventing Ecosystem And Land-surface Models, Grant Number 787203). JCH acknowledges funding from the ERC project SCATAPNUT (Grant Number 681885). This work is a contribution to the LEMONTREE (Land Ecosystem Models based On New Theory, obseRvations and ExperimEnts) project, funded through the generosity of Eric and Wendy Schmidt by recommendation of the Schmidt Futures program (SPH, YS and ICP)

Multiwavelength Observations of LS I +61 303 with VERITAS, Swift and RXTE

We present results from a long-term monitoring campaign on the TeV binary LSI +61 303 with VERITAS at energies above 500 GeV, and in the 2-10 keV hard X-ray bands with RXTE and Swift, sampling nine 26.5 day orbital cycles between September 2006 and February 2008. The binary was observed by VERITAS to be variable, with all integrated observations resulting in a detection at the 8.8 sigma (2006/2007) and 7.3 sigma (2007/2008) significance level for emission above 500 GeV. The source was detected during active periods with flux values ranging from 5 to 20% of the Crab Nebula, varying over the course of a single orbital cycle. Additionally, the observations conducted in the 2007-2008 observing season show marginal evidence (at the 3.6 sigma significance level) for TeV emission outside of the apastron passage of the compact object around the Be star. Contemporaneous hard X-ray observations with RXTE and Swift show large variability with flux values typically varying between 0.5 and 3.0*10^-11 ergs cm^-2 s^-1 over a single orbital cycle. The contemporaneous X-ray and TeV data are examined and it is shown that the TeV sampling is not dense enough to detect a correlation between the two bands.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures, 2 table, Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

The transformation of the business angel market: empirical evidence and research implications

Business angel investing – a key source of finance for entrepreneurial businesses – is rapidly evolving from a fragmented and largely anonymous activity dominated by individuals investing on their own to one that is increasingly characterised by groups of investors investing together through managed angel groups. The implications of this change have been largely ignored by scholars. The paper examines the investment activity and operation of angel groups in Scotland to highlight the implications of this change for the nature of angel investing. It goes on to argue that this transformation challenges both the ongoing relevance of prior research on business angels and current methodological practices, and raises a set of new research questions

Multi-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group-based cognitive behavioural approach to managing fatigue in people with multiple sclerosis

Abstract (provisional) Background Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported and debilitating symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS); approximately two-thirds of people with MS consider it to be one of their three most troubling symptoms. It may limit or prevent participation in everyday activities, work, leisure, and social pursuits, reduce psychological well-being and is one of the key precipitants of early retirement. Energy effectiveness approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing MS-fatigue, increasing self-efficacy and improving quality of life. Cognitive behavioural approaches have been found to be effective for managing fatigue in other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, and more recently, in MS. The aim of this pragmatic trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a recently developed group-based fatigue management intervention (that blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches) compared with current local practice. Methods This is a multi-centre parallel arm block-randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a six session group-based fatigue management intervention, delivered by health professionals, compared with current local practice. 180 consenting adults with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and significant fatigue levels, recruited via secondary/primary care or newsletters/websites, will be randomised to receive the fatigue management intervention or current local practice. An economic evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Primary outcomes are fatigue severity, self-efficacy and disease-specific quality of life. Secondary outcomes include fatigue impact, general quality of life, mood, activity patterns, and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes in those receiving the fatigue management intervention will be measured 1 week prior to, and 1, 4, and 12 months after the intervention (and at equivalent times in those receiving current local practice). A qualitative component will examine what aspects of the fatigue management intervention participants found helpful/unhelpful and barriers to change. Discussion This trial is the fourth stage of a research programme that has followed the Medical Research Council guidance for developing and evaluating complex interventions. What makes the intervention unique is that it blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches. A potential strength of the intervention is that it could be integrated into existing service delivery models as it has been designed to be delivered by staff already working with people with MS. Service users will be involved throughout this research. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN7651747

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

This is the final version of the article. Available from European Geosciences Union / Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record.The discussion paper version of this article was published in Biogeosciences Discussions on 25 January 2016 and is in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34451Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.Stijn Hantson and Almut Arneth acknowledge support by the EU FP7 projects BACCHUS (grant agreement no. 603445) and LUC4C (grant agreement no. 603542). This work was supported, in part, by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), through the Helmholtz Association and its research programme ATMO, and the HGF Impulse and Networking fund. The MC-FIRE model development was supported by the global change research programmes of the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey (CA 12681901,112-), the US Department of Energy (LWT-6212306509), the US Forest Service (PNW96–5I0 9 -2-CA), and funds from the Joint Fire Science Program. I. Colin Prentice is supported by the AXA Research Fund under the Chair Programme in Biosphere and Climate Impacts, part of the Imperial College initiative Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment. Fang Li was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation (grant agreement no. 41475099 and no. 2010CB951801). Jed O. Kaplan was supported by the European Research Council (COEVOLVE 313797). Sam S. Rabin was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, as well as by the Carbon Mitigation Initiative. Allan Spessa acknowledges funding support provided by the Open University Research Investment Fellowship scheme. FireMIP is a non-funded community initiative and participation is open to all. For more information, contact Stijn Hantson ([email protected])