Modeling of crisis periods in stock markets

We exploit a recent computational framework to model and detect financial crises in stock markets, as well as shock events in cryptocurrency markets, which are characterized by a sudden or severe drop in prices. Our method manages to detect all past crises in the French industrial stock market starting with the crash of 1929, including financial crises after 1990 (e.g. dot-com bubble burst of 2000, stock market downturn of 2002), and all past crashes in the cryptocurrency market, namely in 2018, and also in 2020 due to covid-19. We leverage copulae clustering, based on the distance between probability distributions, in order to validate the reliability of the framework; we show that clusters contain copulae from similar market states such as normal states, or crises. Moreover, we propose a novel regression model that can detect successfully all past events using less than 10% of the information that the previous framework requires. We train our model by historical data on the industry assets, and we are able to detect all past shock events in the cryptocurrency market. Our tools provide the essential components of our software framework that offers fast and reliable detection, or even prediction, of shock events in stock and cryptocurrency markets of hundreds of assets.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 1 tabl

Inhibition of G-protein signalling in cardiac dysfunction of intellectual developmental disorder with cardiac arrhythmia (IDDCA) syndrome

BACKGROUND: Pathogenic variants of GNB5 encoding the β5 subunit of the guanine nucleotide-binding protein cause IDDCA syndrome, an autosomal recessive neurodevelopmental disorder associated with cognitive disability and cardiac arrhythmia, particularly severe bradycardia. METHODS: We used echocardiography and telemetric ECG recordings to investigate consequences of Gnb5 loss in mouse. RESULTS: We delineated a key role of Gnb5 in heart sinus conduction and showed that Gnb5-inhibitory signalling is essential for parasympathetic control of heart rate (HR) and maintenance of the sympathovagal balance. Gnb5-/- mice were smaller and had a smaller heart than Gnb5+/+ and Gnb5+/- , but exhibited better cardiac function. Lower autonomic nervous system modulation through diminished parasympathetic control and greater sympathetic regulation resulted in a higher baseline HR in Gnb5-/- mice. In contrast, Gnb5-/- mice exhibited profound bradycardia on treatment with carbachol, while sympathetic modulation of the cardiac stimulation was not altered. Concordantly, transcriptome study pinpointed altered expression of genes involved in cardiac muscle contractility in atria and ventricles of knocked-out mice. Homozygous Gnb5 loss resulted in significantly higher frequencies of sinus arrhythmias. Moreover, we described 13 affected individuals, increasing the IDDCA cohort to 44 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that loss of negative regulation of the inhibitory G-protein signalling causes HR perturbations in Gnb5-/- mice, an effect mainly driven by impaired parasympathetic activity. We anticipate that unravelling the mechanism of Gnb5 signalling in the autonomic control of the heart will pave the way for future drug screening

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of contingency management for cannabis use in early psychosis: the CIRCLE randomised clinical trial

Background Cannabis is the most commonly used illicit substance among people with psychosis. Continued cannabis use following the onset of psychosis is associated with poorer functional and clinical outcomes. However, finding effective ways of intervening has been very challenging. We examined the clinical and cost-effectiveness of adjunctive contingency management (CM), which involves incentives for abstinence from cannabis use, in people with a recent diagnosis of psychosis. Methods CIRCLE was a pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial. Participants were recruited via Early Intervention in Psychosis (EIP) services across the Midlands and South East of England. They had had at last one episode of clinically diagnosed psychosis (affective or non-affective); were aged 18 to 36; reported cannabis use in at least 12 out of the previous 24 weeks; and were not currently receiving treatment for cannabis misuse, or subject to a legal requirement for cannabis testing. Participants were randomised via a secure web-based service 1:1 to either an experimental arm, involving 12 weeks of CM plus a six-session psychoeducation package, or a control arm receiving the psychoeducation package only. The total potential voucher reward in the CM intervention was £240. The primary outcome was time to acute psychiatric care, operationalised as admission to an acute mental health service (including community alternatives to admission). Primary outcome data were collected from patient records at 18 months post-consent by assessors masked to allocation. The trial was registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN33576045. Results: 551 participants were recruited between June 2012 and April 2016. Primary outcome data were obtained for 272 (98%) in the CM (experimental) group and 259 (95%) in the control group. There was no statistically significant difference in time to acute psychiatric care (the primary outcome) (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.76, 1.40) between groups. By 18 months, 90 (33%) of participants in the CM group, and 85 (30%) of the control groups had been admitted at least once to an acute psychiatric service. Amongst those who had experienced an acute psychiatric admission, the median time to admission was 196 days (IQR 82, 364) in the CM group and 245 days (IQR 99,382) in the control group. Cost-effectiveness analyses suggest that there is an 81% likelihood that the intervention was cost-effective, mainly resulting from higher mean inpatient costs for the control group compared with the CM group, however the cost difference between groups was not statistically significant. There were 58 adverse events, 27 in the CM group and 31 in the control group. Conclusions Overall, these results suggest that CM is not an effective intervention for improving the time to acute psychiatric admission or reducing cannabis use in psychosis, at least at the level of voucher reward offered

Perceived economic self‑sufficiency: a countryand generation‑comparative approach

We thank Michael Camasso and Radha Jagannathan as well as Asimina Christoforou, Gerbert Kraaykamp, Fay Makantasi, Tiziana Nazio, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Jacqueline O’Reilly and Jan van Deth for their contribution to the CUPESSE project (Seventh Framework Programme; Grant Agreement No. 61325). CUPESSE received additional funding from the Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) and the Field of Focus 4 “Self-Regulation and Regulation: Individuals and Organisations” at Heidelberg University. We further acknowledge helpful comments on this article by two anonymous reviewers. Julian Rossello provided valuable research assistance.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1057/ s4130 4-018-0186-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Existing datasets provided by statistical agencies (e.g. Eurostat) show that the economic and financial crisis that unfolded in 2008 significantly impacted the lives and livelihoods of young people across Europe. Taking these official statistics as a starting point, the collaborative research project “Cultural Pathways to Economic Self-Sufficiency and Entrepreneurship in Europe” (CUPESSE) generated new survey data on the economic and social situation of young Europeans (18–35 years). The CUPESSE dataset allows for country-comparative assessments of young people’s perceptions about their socio-economic situation. Furthermore, the dataset includes a variety of indicators examining the socio-economic situation of both young adults and their parents. In this data article, we introduce the CUPESSE dataset to political and social scientists in an attempt to spark a debate on the measurements, patterns and mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of economic self-sufficiency as well as its political implications.CUPESSE project (Seventh Framework Programme; Grant Agreement No. 61325

Enhanced Proliferation of Monolayer Cultures of Embryonic Stem (ES) Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes Following Acute Loss of Retinoblastoma

Background: Cardiomyocyte (CM) cell cycle analysis has been impeded because of a reliance on primary neonatal cultures of poorly proliferating cells or chronic transgenic animal models with innate compensatory mechanisms. Methodology/Principal Findings: We describe an in vitro model consisting of monolayer cultures of highly proliferative embryonic stem (ES) cell-derived CM. Following induction with ascorbate and selection with puromycin, early CM cultures are.98 % pure, and at least 85 % of the cells actively proliferate. During the proliferative stage, cells express high levels of E2F3a, B-Myb and phosphorylated forms of retinoblastoma (Rb), but with continued cultivation, cells stop dividing and mature functionally. This developmental transition is characterized by a switch from slow skeletal to cardiac TnI, an increase in binucleation, cardiac calsequestrin and hypophosphorylated Rb, a decrease in E2F3, B-Myb and atrial natriuretic factor, and the establishment of a more negative resting membrane potential. Although previous publications suggested that Rb was not necessary for cell cycle control in heart, we find following acute knockdown of Rb that this factor actively regulates progression through the G1 checkpoint and that its loss promotes proliferation at the expense of CM maturation. Conclusions/Significance: We have established a unique model system for studying cardiac cell cycle progression, and show in contrast to previous reports that Rb actively regulates both cell cycle progression through the G1 checkpoint an

Inhibition of G-protein signalling in cardiac dysfunction of intellectual developmental disorder with cardiac arrhythmia (IDDCA) syndrome

Background: Pathogenic variants of GNB5 encoding the β5 subunit of the guanine nucleotide-binding protein cause IDDCA syndrome, an autosomal recessive neurodevelopmental disorder associated with cognitive disability and cardiac arrhythmia, particularly severe bradycardia. Methods: We used echocardiography and telemetric ECG recordings to investigate consequences of Gnb5 loss in mouse. Results: We delineated a key role of Gnb5 in heart sinus conduction and showed that Gnb5-inhibitory signalling is essential for parasympathetic control of heart rate (HR) and maintenance of the sympathovagal balance. Gnb5-/- mice were smaller and had a smaller heart than Gnb5+/+ and Gnb5+/-, but exhibited better cardiac function. Lower autonomic nervous system modulation through diminished parasympathetic control and greater sympathetic regulation resulted in a higher baseline HR in Gnb5-/- mice. In contrast, Gnb5-/- mice exhibited profound bradycardia on treatment with carbachol, while sympathetic modulation of the cardiac stimulation was not altered. Concordantly, transcriptome study pinpointed altered expression of genes involved in cardiac muscle contractility in atria and ventricles of knocked-out mice. Homozygous Gnb5 loss resulted in significantly higher frequencies of sinus arrhythmias. Moreover, we described 13 affected individuals, increasing the IDDCA cohort to 44 patients. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate that loss of negative regulation of the inhibitory G-protein signalling causes HR perturbations in Gnb5-/- mice, an effect mainly driven by impaired parasympathetic activity. We anticipate that unravelling the mechanism of Gnb5 signalling in the autonomic control of the heart will pave the way for future drug screening

Proteomics profiling of interactome dynamics by colocalisation analysis (COLA)

Localisation and protein function are intimately linked in eukaryotes, as proteins are localised to specific compartments where they come into proximity of other functionally relevant proteins. Significant co-localisation of two proteins can therefore be indicative of their functional association. We here present COLA, a proteomics based strategy coupled with a bioinformatics framework to detect protein–protein co-localisations on a global scale. COLA reveals functional interactions by matching proteins with significant similarity in their subcellular localisation signatures. The rapid nature of COLA allows mapping of interactome dynamics across different conditions or treatments with high precision.Cancer Research UK; BBSRC

GWAS meta-analysis reveals novel loci and genetic correlates for general cognitive function : a report from the COGENT consortium

CORRIGENDUM Molecular Psychiatry (2017) 22, 1651–1652 http://www.nature.com/articles/mp2017197.pdfThe complex nature of human cognition has resulted in cognitive genomics lagging behind many other fields in terms of gene discovery using genome-wide association study (GWAS) methods. In an attempt to overcome these barriers, the current study utilized GWAS meta-analysis to examine the association of common genetic variation (similar to 8M single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with minor allele frequency >= 1%) to general cognitive function in a sample of 35 298 healthy individuals of European ancestry across 24 cohorts in the Cognitive Genomics Consortium (COGENT). In addition, we utilized individual SNP lookups and polygenic score analyses to identify genetic overlap with other relevant neurobehavioral phenotypes. Our primary GWAS meta-analysis identified two novel SNP loci (top SNPs: rs76114856 in the CENPO gene on chromosome 2 and rs6669072 near LOC105378853 on chromosome 1) associated with cognitive performance at the genome-wide significance level (PPeer reviewe

Genome-wide association meta-analysis in 269,867 individuals identifies new genetic and functional links to intelligence

Intelligence is highly heritable(1) and a major determinant of human health and well-being(2). Recent genome-wide meta-analyses have identified 24 genomic loci linked to variation in intelligence3-7, but much about its genetic underpinnings remains to be discovered. Here, we present a large-scale genetic association study of intelligence (n = 269,867), identifying 205 associated genomic loci (190 new) and 1,016 genes (939 new) via positional mapping, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) mapping, chromatin interaction mapping, and gene-based association analysis. We find enrichment of genetic effects in conserved and coding regions and associations with 146 nonsynonymous exonic variants. Associated genes are strongly expressed in the brain, specifically in striatal medium spiny neurons and hippocampal pyramidal neurons. Gene set analyses implicate pathways related to nervous system development and synaptic structure. We confirm previous strong genetic correlations with multiple health-related outcomes, and Mendelian randomization analysis results suggest protective effects of intelligence for Alzheimer's disease and ADHD and bidirectional causation with pleiotropic effects for schizophrenia. These results are a major step forward in understanding the neurobiology of cognitive function as well as genetically related neurological and psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe

Search for invisible decays of the Higgs boson produced via vector boson fusion in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A search for invisible decays of the Higgs boson produced via vector boson fusion (VBF) has been performed with 101  fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions delivered by the LHC at $\sqrt{s}$ =13  TeV and collected by the CMS detector in 2017 and 2018. The sensitivity to the VBF production mechanism is enhanced by constructing two analysis categories, one based on missing transverse momentum and a second based on the properties of jets. In addition to control regions with Z and W boson candidate events, a highly populated control region, based on the production of a photon in association with jets, is used to constrain the dominant irreducible background from the invisible decay of a Z boson produced in association with jets. The results of this search are combined with all previous measurements in the VBF topology, based on data collected in 2012 (at $\sqrt{s}$ =8  TeV), 2015, and 2016, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 19.7, 2.3, and 36.3  fb$^{-1}$, respectively. The observed (expected) upper limit on the invisible branching fraction of the Higgs boson is found to be 0.18 (0.10) at the 95% confidence level, assuming the standard model production cross section. The results are also interpreted in the context of Higgs-portal models