The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels

Swimming like algae: biomimetic soft artificial cilia

Cilia are used effectively in a wide variety of biological systems from fluid transport to thrust generation. Here, we present the design and implemen- tation of artificial cilia, based on a biomimetic planar actuator using soft- smart materials. This actuator is modelled on the cilia movement of the alga Volvox, and represents the cilium as a piecewise constant-curvature robotic actuator that enables the subsequent direct translation of natural articulation into a multi-segment ionic polymer metal composite actuator. It is demonstrated how the combination of optimal segmentation pattern and biologically derived per-segment driving signals reproduce natural cili- ary motion. The amenability of the artificial cilia to scaling is also demonstrated through the comparison of the Reynolds number achieved with that of natural cilia

Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry‐climate models

The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMVal‐2 chemistry‐climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the models’ annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a well‐simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability

Promoting Functional Health in Midlife and Old Age: Long-Term Protective Effects of Control Beliefs, Social Support, and Physical Exercise

Previous studies have examined physical risk factors in relation to functional health, but less work has focused on the protective role of psychological and social factors. We examined the individual and joint protective contribution of control beliefs, social support and physical exercise to changes in functional health, beyond the influence of health status and physical risk factors in middle-aged and older adults. Given that functional health typically declines throughout adulthood, it is important to identify modifiable factors that can be implemented to maintain functioning, improve quality of life, and reduce disability.We conducted a national longitudinal study, Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), with assessments in 1995-1996 and 2004-2006, and 3,626 community-residing adults, aged 32 to 84, were included in the analyses. Functional health (Physical Functioning subscale of the SF-36) and protective factors were measured at both occasions. While controlling for socio-demographic, health status, and physical risk factors (large waist circumference, smoking, and alcohol or drug problems), a composite of the three protective variables (control beliefs, social support, and physical exercise) at Time 1 was significantly related to functional health change. The more of these factors at Time 1, the better the health maintenance over 10 years. Among middle-aged and older adults, declines in health were significantly reduced with an increased number of protective factors.Age-related declines in health were reduced among those with more protective factors up to a decade earlier in life. Modifiable psychological, social, and physical protective factors, individually and in the aggregate, are associated with maintenance of functional health, beyond the damaging effects of physical risk factors. The results are encouraging for the prospect of developing interventions to promote functional health and for reducing public health expenditures for physical disability in later life

Stratospheric Injection of Brominated Very Short‐Lived Substances: Aircraft Observations in the Western Pacific and Representation in Global Models

We quantify the stratospheric injection of brominated very short‐lived substances (VSLS) based on aircraft observations acquired in winter 2014 above the Tropical Western Pacific during the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) campaigns. The overall contribution of VSLS to stratospheric bromine was determined to be 5.0 ± 2.1 ppt, in agreement with the 5 ± 3 ppt estimate provided in the 2014 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment report (WMO 2014), but with lower uncertainty. Measurements of organic bromine compounds, including VSLS, were analyzed using CFC‐11 as a reference stratospheric tracer. From this analysis, 2.9 ± 0.6 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via organic source gas injection of VSLS. This value is two times the mean bromine content of VSLS measured at the tropical tropopause, for regions outside of the Tropical Western Pacific, summarized in WMO 2014. A photochemical box model, constrained to CONTRAST observations, was used to estimate inorganic bromine from measurements of BrO collected by two instruments. The analysis indicates that 2.1 ± 2.1 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via inorganic product gas injection. We also examine the representation of brominated VSLS within 14 global models that participated in the Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative. The representation of stratospheric bromine in these models generally lies within the range of our empirical estimate. Models that include explicit representations of VSLS compare better with bromine observations in the lower stratosphere than models that utilize longer‐lived chemicals as a surrogate for VSLS

Consequences of ignoring group association in spatial capture–recapture analysis

publishedVersio

Evolutionary approach for path following optimal control of multibody systems

An approach to the determination of approximate solutions of path following optimal control problems by exploiting evolutionary optimization techniques is proposed. Such an approach enables modeling and solution of a wide class of path following optimal control problems, arising in engineering practice, within a unified framework of constrained optimization techniques, including: implementation of genetic algorithms for global optimization and multiobjective control, and utilization of parallel processing to alleviate the computational burden in high dimensional optimal control problems. Computer realization of the proposed method is mainly based on MATLAB simulation programs for constrained optimization and genetic algorithms

Optimal damping of vibrations in multibody systems through equivalent friction control laws

This work considers the modeling and optimization of friction laws and energy exchange processes in multibody systems. It is proposed to control the vibration level of such systems by introducing equivalent frictional forces. The corresponding optimal vibration control problem is formulated and reduced to a constrained optimization one in order to determine the optimal friction laws dissipating the oscillating energy. Additionally, an approach is proposed to solve general control problems for optimal vibration damping. The proposed approach is illustrated using two examples

Complexity-based analysis of microvascular blood flow in human skin

The maintenance of an adequate microvascular perfusion sufficient to meet the metabolic demands of the tissue is dependent on neural, humoral and local vaso-mechanisms that determine vascular tone and blood flow patterns within a microvascular network. It has been argued that attenuation of these flow patterns may be a major contributor to disease risk. Thus, quantitative information on the in vivo spatio-temporal behaviour of microvascular perfusion is important if we are to understand network functionality and flexibility in cardiovascular disease. Time and frequency-domain analysis has been extensively used to describe the dynamic characteristics of Laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) signals obtained from superficial microvascular networks such as that of the skin. However, neither approach has provided definitive and consistent information on the relative contribution of the oscillatory components of flowmotion (endothelial, neurogenic, myogenic, respiratory and cardiac) to a sustained and adequate microvascular perfusion; nor advance our understanding of how such processes are collectively modified in disease. More recently, non-linear complexity-based approaches have begun to yield evidence of a declining adaptability of microvascular flow patterns as disease severity increases. In this chapter we review the utility and application of these approaches for the quantitative, mechanistic exploration of microvascular (dys)function.</p