Case studies

In this chapter, case studies are used as examples of how to gain a better understanding of the risks posed by extreme weather and climate-related events while identifying lessons and best practices from past responses to such occurrences. Using the information in Chapters 1 to 8, it was possible to focus on particular examples to reflect the needs of the whole Special Report. The chosen case studies are illustrative of an important range of disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation issues. They are grouped to examine representative types of extreme events, vulnerable regions, and methodological approaches

Bounding Helly numbers via Betti numbers

We show that very weak topological assumptions are enough to ensure the existence of a Helly-type theorem. More precisely, we show that for any non-negative integers $b$ and $d$ there exists an integer $h(b,d)$ such that the following holds. If $\mathcal F$ is a finite family of subsets of $\mathbb R^d$ such that $\tilde\beta_i\left(\bigcap\mathcal G\right) \le b$ for any $\mathcal G \subsetneq \mathcal F$ and every $0 \le i \le \lceil d/2 \rceil-1$ then $\mathcal F$ has Helly number at most $h(b,d)$. Here $\tilde\beta_i$ denotes the reduced $\mathbb Z_2$-Betti numbers (with singular homology). These topological conditions are sharp: not controlling any of these $\lceil d/2 \rceil$ first Betti numbers allow for families with unbounded Helly number. Our proofs combine homological non-embeddability results with a Ramsey-based approach to build, given an arbitrary simplicial complex $K$, some well-behaved chain map $C_*(K) \to C_*(\mathbb R^d)$.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe

Study of Z → llγ decays at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a study of Z → llγ decays with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis uses a proton–proton data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.2 fb−1 collected at a centre-ofmass energy √s = 8 TeV. Integrated fiducial cross-sections together with normalised differential fiducial cross-sections, sensitive to the kinematics of final-state QED radiation, are obtained. The results are found to be in agreement with stateof-the-art predictions for final-state QED radiation. First measurements of Z → llγ γ decays are also reported

Search for third-generation vector-like leptons in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for vector-like leptons in multilepton (two, three, or four-or-more electrons plus muons) final states with zero or more hadronic τ-lepton decays is presented. The search is performed using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. To maximize the separation of signal and background, a machine-learning classifier is used. No excess of events is observed beyond the Standard Model expectation. Using a doublet vector-like lepton model, vector-like leptons coupling to third-generation Standard Model leptons are excluded in the mass range from 130 GeV to 900 GeV at the 95% confidence level, while the highest excluded mass is expected to be 970 GeV

Search for leptoquark pair production decaying into te−te¯ + or tμ−t¯μ+ in multi-lepton final states in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for leptoquark pair production decaying into te−te¯ + or tμ−t¯μ+ in final states with multiple leptons is presented. The search is based on a dataset of pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Four signal regions, with the requirement of at least three light leptons (electron or muon) and at least two jets out of which at least one jet is identified as coming from a b-hadron, are considered based on the number of leptons of a given flavour. The main background processes are estimated using dedicated control regions in a simultaneous fit with the signal regions to data. No excess above the Standard Model background prediction is observed and 95% confidence level limits on the production cross section times branching ratio are derived as a function of the leptoquark mass. Under the assumption of exclusive decays into te− (tμ−), the corresponding lower limit on the scalar mixed-generation leptoquark mass mLQd mix is at 1.58 (1.59) TeV and on the vector leptoquark mass mU˜1 at 1.67 (1.67) TeV in the minimal coupling scenario and at 1.95 (1.95) TeV in the Yang–Mills scenario

Measurements of Zγ+jets differential cross sections in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Differential cross-section measurements of Zγ production in association with hadronic jets are presented, using the full 139 fb−1 dataset of s√ = 13 TeV proton–proton collisions collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC. Distributions are measured using events in which the Z boson decays leptonically and the photon is usually radiated from an initial-state quark. Measurements are made in both one and two observables, including those sensitive to the hard scattering in the event and others which probe additional soft and collinear radiation. Different Standard Model predictions, from both parton-shower Monte Carlo simulation and fixed-order QCD calculations, are compared with the measurements. In general, good agreement is observed between data and predictions from MATRIX and MiNNLOPS, as well as next-to-leading-order predictions from MADGRAPH5_AMC@NLO and SHERPA

Evidence for the charge asymmetry in pp → tt¯ production at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential measurements of the top–antitop (tt¯) charge asymmetry Att¯C and the leptonic asymmetry Aℓℓ¯C are presented in proton–proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement uses the complete Run 2 dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1, combines data in the single-lepton and dilepton channels, and employs reconstruction techniques adapted to both the resolved and boosted topologies. A Bayesian unfolding procedure is performed to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. The combined inclusive tt¯ charge asymmetry is measured to be Att¯C = 0.0068 ± 0.0015, which differs from zero by 4.7 standard deviations. Differential measurements are performed as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum and longitudinal boost of the tt¯ system. Both the inclusive and differential measurements are found to be compatible with the Standard Model predictions, at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The measurements are interpreted in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, placing competitive bounds on several Wilson coefficients

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in association with a photon with the ATLAS experiment

A measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair (tt¯) production in association with a photon is presented. The measurement is performed in the single-lepton tt¯ decay channel using proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN at a centre-of-massenergy of 13 TeV during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. The charge asymmetry is obtained from the distribution of the difference of the absolute rapidities of the top quark and antiquark using a profile likelihood unfolding approach. It is measured to be AC = −0.003 ± 0.029 in agreement with the Standard Model expectation

A search for new resonances in multiple final states with a high transverse momentum Z boson in s√ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A generic search for resonances is performed with events containing a Z boson with transverse momentum greater than 100 GeV, decaying into e+e− or μ+μ−. The analysed data collected with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider correspond to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Two invariant mass distributions are examined for a localised excess relative to the expected Standard Model background in six independent event categories (and their inclusive sum) to increase the sensitivity. No significant excess is observed. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are derived for two cases: a model-independent interpretation of Gaussian-shaped resonances with the mass width between 3% and 10% of the resonance mass, and a specific heavy vector triplet model with the decay mode W′ → ZW → ℓℓqq