Establishing a follow-up of the Swiss MONICA participants (1984-1993): record linkage with census and mortality data

BACKGROUND: To assess the feasibility and quality of an anonymous linkage of 1) MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovscular disease, three waves between 1984 and 1993) data with 2) census and mortality records of the Swiss National Cohort in order to establish a mortality follow-up until 2008. Many countries feature the defect of lacking general population cohorts because they have missed to provide for follow-up information of health surveys. METHODS: Record linkage procedures were used in a multi-step approach. Kaplan-Meier curves from our data were contrasted with the survival probabilities expected from life tables for the general population, age-standardized mortality rates from our data with those derived from official cross-sectional mortality data. Cox regression models were fit to investigate the influence of covariates on survival. RESULTS: 97.8% of the eligible 10,160 participants (25-74y at baseline) could be linked to a census (1990: 9,737; 2000: 8,749), mortality (1,526, 1984-2008) and/or emigration record (320, 1990-2008). Linkage success did not differ by any key study characteristic. Results of survival analyses were robust to linkage step or certainty of a correct link. Loss to follow-up between 1990 and 2000 amounted to 4.7%. MONICA participants had lower mortality than the general population, but similar mortality patterns, (e.g. variation by educational level, marital status or region). CONCLUSIONS: Using anonymized census and death records allowed an almost complete mortality follow-up of MONICA study participants of up to 25 years. Lower mortality compared to the general population was in line with a presumable 'healthy participant' selection in the original MONICA study. Apart from that, the derived data set reproduced known mortality patterns and showed only negligible potential for selection bias introduced by the linkage process. Anonymous record linkage was feasible and provided robust results. It can thus provide valuable information, when no cohort study is available

Evaluation of biospheric components in earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: The state-of-the-art

PublishedJournal ArticleEarth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process-and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes. © 2013 Author(s).This paper emerged from the GREENCYCLESII mini-conference “Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations” held at Clare College, Cambridge, UK, in September 2012. We would like to thank the Marie Curie FP7 Research and Training Network GREENCYCLESII for providing funding which made this meeting possible. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. The work of C. D. Jones was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). N. R. Edwards acknowledges support from FP7 grant no. 265170 (ERMITAGE). N. Vázquez Riveiros acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund and the Newton Trust

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) – levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases – as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result – which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 – leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data

Conducting Health Research in Korean American Churches: Perspectives from Church Leaders

Korean Americans experience many challenges to obtaining adequate health care coverage and access to needed services. Because a large proportion of Korean Americans attend churches on a regular basis, churches may be a promising venue where health programs can be delivered. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of Korean American churches with respect to conducting future health intervention research, we conducted exploratory interviews and focus groups with 58 leaders from 23 Korean American churches and three community organizations. From these interviews and focus groups, we found that Korean churches and church leaders seek to meet a variety of social and health needs of their congregation and their surrounding community. Several leaders have stated that assisting with social and medical needs of their members is an important component of their current ministry. They described profound health needs of their congregations and have suggested various ways in which the university can partner with the local churches to help address these needs through research. Additionally, they described various resources churches can provide to researchers such as: their personal assistance, church volunteer base, church facility, and church network and contacts. Our findings suggest that Korean churches have a high potential to serve an important role in the health of Korean Americans. On the basis of the promising results of the present study, we are planning to conduct a cross sectional survey of Korean church leaders and members in Los Angeles County to substantiate our findings in a larger representative sample

Short-Lived Trace Gases in the Surface Ocean and the Atmosphere

The two-way exchange of trace gases between the ocean and the atmosphere is important for both the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, including the global cycling of elements. Here we review these exchanges and their importance for a range of gases whose lifetimes are generally short compared to the main greenhouse gases and which are, in most cases, more reactive than them. Gases considered include sulphur and related compounds, organohalogens, non-methane hydrocarbons, ozone, ammonia and related compounds, hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Finally, we stress the interactivity of the system, the importance of process understanding for modeling, the need for more extensive field measurements and their better seasonal coverage, the importance of inter-calibration exercises and finally the need to show the importance of air-sea exchanges for global cycling and how the field fits into the broader context of Earth System Science

The Smart City Active Mobile Phone Intervention (SCAMPI) study to promote physical activity through active transportation in healthy adults: a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background The global pandemic of physical inactivity represents a considerable public health challenge. Active transportation (i.e., walking or cycling for transport) can contribute to greater total physical activity levels. Mobile phone-based programs can promote behaviour change, but no study has evaluated whether such a program can promote active transportation in adults. This study protocol presents the design and methodology of The Smart City Active Mobile Phone Intervention (SCAMPI), a randomised controlled trial to promote active transportation via a smartphone application (app) with the aim to increase physical activity. Methods/design A two-arm parallel randomised controlled trial will be conducted in Stockholm County, Sweden. Two hundred fifty adults aged 20–65 years will be randomised to either monitoring of active transport via the TRavelVU app (control), or to a 3-month evidence-based behaviour change program to promote active transport and monitoring of active travel via the TRavelVU Plus app (intervention). The primary outcome is moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA in minutes/day) (ActiGraph wGT3x-BT) measured post intervention. Secondary outcomes include: time spent in active transportation measured via the TRavelVU app, perceptions about active transportation (the Transport and Physical Activity Questionnaire (TPAQ)) and health related quality of life (RAND-36). Assessments are conducted at baseline, after the completed intervention (after 3 months) and 6 months post randomisation. Discussion SCAMPI will determine the effectiveness of a smartphone app to promote active transportation and physical activity in an adult population. If effective, the app has potential to be a low-cost intervention that can be delivered at scale. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03086837; 22 March, 2017

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

A partially supervised physical activity program for adult and adolescent survivors of childhood cancer (SURfit): study design of a randomized controlled trial [NCT02730767].

BACKGROUND Beyond survival of nowadays >80%, modern childhood cancer treatment strives to preserve long-term health and quality of life. However, the majority of today's survivors suffer from short- and long-term adverse effects such as cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, obesity, osteoporosis, fatigue, depression, and reduced physical fitness and quality of life. Regular exercise can play a major role to mitigate or prevent such late-effects. Despite this, there are no data on the effects of regular exercise in childhood cancer survivors from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Primary outcome of the current RCT is therefore the effect of a 12-months exercise program on a composite cardiovascular disease risk score in childhood cancer survivors. Secondary outcomes are single cardiovascular disease risk factors, glycaemic control, bone health, body composition, physical fitness, physical activity, quality of life, mental health, fatigue and adverse events (safety). METHODS A total of 150 childhood cancer survivors aged ≥16 years and diagnosed ≥5 years prior to the study are recruited from Swiss paediatric oncology clinics. Following the baseline assessments patients are randomized 1:1 into an intervention and control group. Thereafter, they are seen at month 3, 6 and 12 for follow-up assessments. The intervention group is asked to add ≥2.5 h of intense physical activity/week, including 30 min of strength building and 2 h of aerobic exercises. In addition, they are told to reduce screen time by 25%. Regular consulting by physiotherapists, individual web-based activity diaries, and pedometer devices are used as motivational tools for the intervention group. The control group is asked to keep their physical activity levels constant. DISCUSSION The results of this study will show whether a partially supervised exercise intervention can improve cardiovascular disease risk factors, bone health, body composition, physical activity and fitness, fatigue, mental health and quality of life in childhood cancer survivors. If the program will be effective, all relevant information of the SURfit physical activity intervention will be made available to interested clinics that treat and follow-up childhood cancer patients to promote exercise in their patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION Prospectively registered in clinicaltrials.gov [ NCT02730767 ], registration date: 10.12.2015