A global framework for linking alpine-treeline ecotone patterns to underlying processes

Globally, treeline ecotones vary from abrupt lines to extended zones of increasingly small, stunted and/or dispersed trees. These spatial patterns contain information about the processes that control treeline dynamics. Describing these patterns consistently along ecologically meaningful dimensions is needed for generalizing hypotheses and knowledge about controlling processes and expected treeline shifts globally. However, existing spatial categorizations of treelines are very loosely defined, leading to ambiguities in their use and interpretation. To help better understand treeline-forming processes, we present a new framework for describing alpine treeline ecotones, focusing on hillside-scale patterns, using pattern dimensions with distinct indicative values: 1) the spatial pattern in the x-y plane: a) decline in tree cover, and b) change in the level of clustering. Variation along these dimensions results in more or less 'discrete' or 'diffuse' treelines with or without islands. These patterns mainly indicate demographic processes: establishment and mortality. 2) Changes in tree stature: a) decline in tree height, and b) change in tree shape. Variation along these dimensions results in more or less 'abrupt' or 'gradual' treelines with or without the formation of environmental krummholz. These patterns mainly indicate growth and dieback processes.Additionally, tree population structure can help distinguish alternative hypotheses about pattern formation, while analysing the functional composition of the ecotonal vegetation is essential to understand community-level processes, controlled by species-specific demographic processes.Our graphical representation of this framework can be used to place any treeline pattern in the proposed multi-dimensional space to guide hypotheses on underlying processes and associated dynamics. To quantify the dimensions and facilitate comparative research, we advocate a joint effort in gathering and analysing spatial patterns from treelines globally. The improved recognition of treeline patterns should allow more effective comparative research and monitoring and advance our understanding of treeline-forming processes and vegetation dynamics in response to climate warming

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions

Reproduction as a bottleneck to treeline advance across the circumarctic forest tundra ecotone

Published versionThe fundamental niche of many species is shifting with climate change, especially in sub-arctic ecosystems with pronounced recent warming. Ongoing warming in sub-arctic regions should lessen environmental constraints on tree growth and reproduction, leading to increased success of trees colonizing tundra. Nevertheless, variable responses of treeline ecotones have been documented in association with warming temperatures. One explanation for time lags between increasingly favourable environmental conditions and treeline ecotone movement is reproductive limitations caused by low seed availability. Our objective was to assess the reproductive constraints of the dominant tree species at the treeline ecotone in the circumpolar north. We sampled reproductive structures of trees (cones and catkins) and stand attributes across circumarctic treeline ecotones. We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate the sensitivity of seed production and the availability of viable seed to regional climate, stand structure, and species-specific characteristics. Both seed production and viability of available seed were strongly driven by specific, sequential seasonal climatic conditions, but in different ways. Seed production was greatest when growing seasons with more growing degree days coincided with years with high precipitation. Two consecutive years with more growing degree days and low precipitation resulted in low seed production. Seasonal climate effects on the viability of available seed depended on the physical characteristics of the reproductive structures. Large-coned and -seeded species take more time to develop mature embryos and were therefore more sensitive to increases in growing degree days in the year of flowering and embryo development. Our findings suggest that both moisture stress and abbreviated growing seasons can have a notable negative influence on the production and viability of available seed at treeline. Our synthesis revealed that constraints on pre-dispersal reproduction within the treeline ecotone might create a considerable time lag for range expansion of tree populations into tundra ecosystems

p16 Mutation Spectrum in the Premalignant Condition Barrett's Esophagus

Background: Mutation, promoter hypermethylation and loss of heterozygosity involving the tumor suppressor gene p16 (CDKN2a/INK4a) have been detected in a wide variety of human cancers, but much less is known concerning the frequency and spectrum of p16 mutations in premalignant conditions. Methods and Findings: We have determined the p16 mutation spectrum for a cohort of 304 patients with Barrett’s esophagus, a premalignant condition that predisposes to the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Forty seven mutations were detected by sequencing of p16 exon 2 in 44 BE patients (14.5%) with a mutation spectrum consistent with that caused by oxidative damage and chronic inflammation. The percentage of patients with p16 mutations increased with increasing histologic grade. In addition, samples from 3 out of 19 patients (15.8%) who underwent esophagectomy were found to have mutations. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest the environment of the esophagus in BE patients can both generate an

Maternal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and the secondary sex ratio: an occupational cohort study

Though commercial production of polychlorinated biphenyls was banned in the United States in 1977, exposure continues due to their environmental persistence. Several studies have examined the association between environmental polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and modulations of the secondary sex ratio, with conflicting results. Our objective was to evaluate the association between maternal preconceptional occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and the secondary sex ratio. We examined primipara singleton births of 2595 women, who worked in three capacitor plants at least one year during the period polychlorinated biphenyls were used. Cumulative estimated maternal occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure at the time of the infant's conception was calculated from plant-specific job-exposure matrices. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between maternal polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and male sex at birth (yes/no). Maternal body mass index at age 20, smoking status, and race did not vary between those occupationally exposed and those unexposed before the child's conception. Polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed mothers were, however, more likely to have used oral contraceptives and to have been older at the birth of their first child than non-occupationally exposed women. Among 1506 infants liveborn to polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed primiparous women, 49.8% were male; compared to 49.9% among those not exposed (n = 1089). Multivariate analyses controlling for mother's age and year of birth found no significant association between the odds of a male birth and mother's cumulative estimated polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to time of conception. Based on these data, we find no evidence of altered sex ratio among children born to primiparous polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed female workers

Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years

NSAIDs Modulate CDKN2A, TP53, and DNA Content Risk for Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND: Somatic genetic CDKN2A, TP53, and DNA content abnormalities are common in many human cancers and their precursors, including esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett's esophagus (BE), conditions for which aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been proposed as possible chemopreventive agents; however, little is known about the ability of a biomarker panel to predict progression to cancer nor how NSAID use may modulate progression. We aimed to evaluate somatic genetic abnormalities with NSAIDs as predictors of EA in a prospective cohort study of patients with BE. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Esophageal biopsies from 243 patients with BE were evaluated at baseline for TP53 and CDKN2A (p16) alterations, tetraploidy, and aneuploidy using sequencing; loss of heterozygosity (LOH); methylation-specific PCR; and flow cytometry. At 10 y, all abnormalities, except CDKN2A mutation and methylation, contributed to EA risk significantly by univariate analysis, ranging from 17p LOH (relative risk [RR] = 10.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2–21.3, p < 0.001) to 9p LOH (RR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.1–6.0, p = 0.03). A panel of abnormalities including 17p LOH, DNA content tetraploidy and aneuploidy, and 9p LOH was the best predictor of EA (RR = 38.7; 95% CI 10.8–138.5, p < 0.001). Patients with no baseline abnormality had a 12% 10-y cumulative EA incidence, whereas patients with 17p LOH, DNA content abnormalities, and 9p LOH had at least a 79.1% 10-y EA incidence. In patients with zero, one, two, or three baseline panel abnormalities, there was a significant trend toward EA risk reduction among NSAID users compared to nonusers (p = 0.01). The strongest protective effect was seen in participants with multiple genetic abnormalities, with NSAID nonusers having an observed 10-y EA risk of 79%, compared to 30% for NSAID users (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of 17p LOH, 9p LOH, and DNA content abnormalities provided better EA risk prediction than any single TP53, CDKN2A, or DNA content lesion alone. NSAIDs are associated with reduced EA risk, especially in patients with multiple high-risk molecular abnormalities