Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Twenty-Two Years of Warming, Fertilisation and Shading of Subarctic Heath Shrubs Promote Secondary Growth and Plasticity but Not Primary Growth

Most manipulation experiments simulating global change in tundra were short-term or did not measure plant growth directly. Here, we assessed the growth of three shrubs (Cassiope tetragona, Empetrum hermaphroditum and Betula nana) at a subarctic heath in Abisko (Northern Sweden) after 22 years of warming (passive greenhouses), fertilisation (nutrients addition) and shading (hessian fabric), and compare this to observations from the first decade of treatment. We assessed the growth rate of current-year leaves and apical stem (primary growth) and cambial growth (secondary growth), and integrated growth rates with morphological measurements and species coverage. Primary- and total growth of Cassiope and Empetrum were unaffected by manipulations, whereas growth was substantially reduced under fertilisation and shading (but not warming) for Betula. Overall, shrub height and length tended to increase under fertilisation and warming, whereas branching increased mostly in shaded Cassiope. Morphological changes were coupled to increased secondary growth under fertilisation. The species coverage showed a remarkable increase in graminoids in fertilised plots. Shrub response to fertilisation was positive in the short-term but changed over time, likely because of an increased competition with graminoids. More erected postures and large, canopies (requiring enhanced secondary growth for stem reinforcement) likely compensated for the increased light competition in Empetrum and Cassiope but did not avoid growth reduction in the shade intolerant Betula. The impact of warming and shading on shrub growth was more conservative. The lack of growth enhancement under warming suggests the absence of long-term acclimation for processes limiting biomass production. The lack of negative effects of shading on Cassiope was linked to morphological changes increasing the photosynthetic surface. Overall, tundra shrubs showed developmental plasticity over the longer term. However, such plasticity was associated clearly with growth rate trends only in fertilised plots

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Isotopic (δ18 O, δ2 H, d-excess) Traits of Pan-Arctic Summer Rainfall Events

Arctic sea-ice loss is emblematic of an amplified Arctic water cycle and has critical feedback implications for global climate. Stable isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) are valuable tracers for constraining water cycle and climate processes through space and time. Yet, the paucity of well-resolved Arctic isotope data preclude an empirically derived understanding of the hydrologic changes occurring today, in the deep (geologic) past, and in the future. To address this knowledge gap, the Pan-Arctic Precipitation Isotope Network (PAPIN) was established in 2018 to coordinate precipitation sampling at 19 stations across key tundra, subarctic, maritime, and continental climate zones. Here, we present a first assessment of rainfall samples collected in summer 2018 (n = 281) and combine new isotope and meteorological data with sea ice observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations. Data collectively establish a summer Arctic Meteoric Water Line where δ2H = 7.6⋅δ18O–1.8 (r2 = 0.96, p < 0.01). Mean amount-weighted δ18O, δ2H, and d-excess values were −12.3, −93.5, and 4.9‰, respectively, with the lowest summer mean δ18O value observed in northwest Greenland (−19.9‰) and the highest in Iceland (−7.3‰). Southern Alaska recorded the lowest mean d-excess (−8.2%) and northern Russia the highest (9.9‰). We identify a range of δ18O-temperature coefficients from 0.31‰/°C (Alaska) to 0.93‰/°C (Russia). The steepest regression slopes (>0.75‰/°C) were observed at continental sites, while statistically significant temperature relations were generally absent at coastal stations. Model outputs indicate that 68% of the summer precipitating air masses were transported into the Arctic from mid-latitudes and were characterized by relatively high δ18O values. Yet 32% of precipitation events, characterized by lower δ18O and high d-excess values, derived from northerly air masses transported from the Arctic Ocean and/or its marginal seas, highlighting key emergent oceanic moisture sources as sea ice cover declines. Resolving these processes across broader spatial-temporal scales is an ongoing research priority, and will be key to quantifying the past, present, and future feedbacks of an amplified Arctic water cycle on the global climate system. © Copyright © 2021 Mellat, Bailey, Mustonen, Marttila, Klein, Gribanov, Bret-Harte, Chupakov, Divine, Else, Filippov, Hyöky, Jones, Kirpotin, Kroon, Markussen, Nielsen, Olsen, Paavola, Pokrovsky, Prokushkin, Rasch, Raundrup, Suominen, Syvänperä, Vignisson, Zarov and Welker.We gratefully acknowledge all participating PAPIN stations. Tarja T?rm?nen and Aino Erkinaro assisted with sample analysis at the Stable Isotope Laboratory, University of Oulu. Shawn Marriott, Patrick Duke and Polar Knowledge Canada are acknowledged for their support with the Canadian High Arctic Research Station. Sergey Serikov and Aleksandr Sokolov assisted with Russian precipitation sampling. The NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) is gratefully acknowledged for provision of the HYSPLIT transport model used in this study. NCEP/NCAR data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory?s (ESRL) Physical Sciences Laboratory database. Funding. The Pan-Arctic Precipitation Isotope Network (PAPIN) received funding from the European Union?s Horizon 2020 Project INTERACT, under Grant Agreement No.730938 (JW PI). An Academy of Finland Grant (316014-JW PI). Support was also provided by a University of the Arctic Research Chairship to JW that funded isotope analyses and provided postdoctoral support for HB and K-RM and postgraduate research support for MM. A Russian Science Foundation Grant (No. 18-11-00024) to KG funded isotope analyses. SK was thankful to Russian Science Foundation (No. 20-67-46018). Russian Foundation for Basic Research (BFBR) supported isotopic analyses conducted by AP (#18-05-60203-Arktika)

ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5 degrees grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (V-cmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r(2) = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r(2) = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r(2) = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r(2) = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r(2) values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r(2) values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r(2) <0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized V-cmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average V-cmax value.Peer reviewe

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Isotopic (δ18 O, δ2 H, d-excess) Traits of Pan-Arctic Summer Rainfall Events

Arctic sea-ice loss is emblematic of an amplified Arctic water cycle and has critical feedback implications for global climate. Stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta H-2, d-excess) are valuable tracers for constraining water cycle and climate processes through space and time. Yet, the paucity of well-resolved Arctic isotope data preclude an empirically derived understanding of the hydrologic changes occurring today, in the deep (geologic) past, and in the future. To address this knowledge gap, the Pan-Arctic Precipitation Isotope Network (PAPIN) was established in 2018 to coordinate precipitation sampling at 19 stations across key tundra, subarctic, maritime, and continental climate zones. Here, we present a first assessment of rainfall samples collected in summer 2018 (n = 281) and combine new isotope and meteorological data with sea ice observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations. Data collectively establish a summer Arctic Meteoric Water Line where delta H-2 = 7.6.delta O-18-1.8 (r(2) = 0.96, p 0.75 parts per thousand/degrees C) were observed at continental sites, while statistically significant temperature relations were generally absent at coastal stations. Model outputs indicate that 68% of the summer precipitating air masses were transported into the Arctic from mid-latitudes and were characterized by relatively high delta O-18 values. Yet 32% of precipitation events, characterized by lower delta O-18 and high d-excess values, derived from northerly air masses transported from the Arctic Ocean and/or its marginal seas, highlighting key emergent oceanic moisture sources as sea ice cover declines. Resolving these processes across broader spatial-temporal scales is an ongoing research priority, and will be key to quantifying the past, present, and future feedbacks of an amplified Arctic water cycle on the global climate system