The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia.

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests

Goal-Driven Structured Argumentation for Patient Management in a Multimorbidity Setting

We use computational argumentation to both analyse and generate solutions for reasoning in multimorbidity about consistent recommendations, according to different patient-centric goals. Reasoning in this setting carries a complexity related to the multiple variables involved. These variables reflect the co-existing health conditions that should be considered when defining a proper therapy. However, current Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) are not equipped to deal with such a situation. They do not go beyond the straightforward application of the rules that build their knowledge base and simple interpretation of Computer-Interpretable Guidelines (CIGs). We provide a computational argumentation system equipped with goal-seeking mechanisms to combine independently generated recommendations, with the ability to resolve conflicts and generate explanations for its results. We also discuss its advantages over and relation to Multiple-criteria Decision-making (MCDM) in this particular setting.- (undefined

Spatial and temporal dimensions of landscape fragmentation across the Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon in the past decades has been suffering severe landscape alteration, mainly due to anthropogenic activities, such as road building and land clearing for agriculture. Using a high-resolution time series of land cover maps (classified as mature forest, non-forest, secondary forest) spanning from 1984 through 2011, and four uncorrelated fragmentation metrics (edge density, clumpiness index, area-weighted mean patch size and shape index), we examined the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest fragmentation in three study areas across the Brazilian Amazon (Manaus, Santarém and Machadinho d’Oeste), inside and outside conservation units. Moreover, we compared the impacts on the landscape of: (1) different land uses (e.g. cattle ranching, crop production), (2) occupation processes (spontaneous vs. planned settlements) and (3) implementation of conservation units. By 2010/2011, municipalities located along the Arc of Deforestation had more than 55% of the remaining mature forest strictly confined to conservation units. Further, the planned settlement showed a higher rate of forest loss, a more persistent increase in deforested areas and a higher relative incidence of deforestation inside conservation units. Distinct agricultural activities did not lead to significantly different landscape structures; the accessibility of the municipality showed greater influence in the degree of degradation of the landscapes. Even with a high proportion of the landscapes covered by conservation units, which showed a strong inhibitory effect on forest fragmentation, we show that dynamic agriculturally driven economic activities, in municipalities with extensive road development, led to more regularly shaped, heavily fragmented landscapes, with higher densities of forest edge

Does the Establishment of Sustainable Use Reserves Affect Fire Management in the Humid Tropics?

Tropical forests are experiencing a growing fire problem driven by climatic change, agricultural expansion and forest degradation. Protected areas are an important feature of forest protection strategies, and sustainable use reserves (SURs) may be reducing fire prevalence since they promote sustainable livelihoods and resource management. However, the use of fire in swidden agriculture, and other forms of land management, may be undermining the effectiveness of SURs in meeting their conservation and sustainable development goals. We analyse MODIS derived hot pixels, TRMM rainfall data, Terra-Class land cover data, socio-ecological data from the Brazilian agro-census and the spatial extent of rivers and roads to evaluate whether the designation of SURs reduces fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, we ask (1) a. Is SUR location (i.e., de facto) or (1) b. designation (i.e. de jure) the driving factor affecting performance in terms of the spatial density of fires?, and (2), Does SUR creation affect fire management (i.e., the timing of fires in relation to previous rainfall)? We demonstrate that pre-protection baselines are crucial for understanding reserve performance. We show that reserve creation had no discernible impact on fire density, and that fires were less prevalent in SURs due to their characteristics of sparser human settlement and remoteness, rather than their status de jure. In addition, the timing of fires in relation to rainfall, indicative of local fire management and adherence to environmental law, did not improve following SUR creation. These results challenge the notion that SURs promote environmentally sensitive fire-management, and suggest that SURs in Amazonia will require special attention if they are to curtail future accidental wildfires, particularly as plans to expand the road infrastructure throughout the region are realised. Greater investment to support improved fire management by farmers living in reserves, in addition to other fire users, will be necessary to help ameliorate these threats

Water Availability Is the Main Climate Driver of Neotropical Tree Growth

• Climate models for the coming century predict rainfall reduction in the Amazonian region, including change in water availability for tropical rainforests. Here, we test the extent to which climate variables related to water regime, temperature and irradiance shape the growth trajectories of neotropical trees. • We developed a diameter growth model explicitly designed to work with asynchronous climate and growth data. Growth trajectories of 205 individual trees from 54 neotropical species censused every 2 months over a 4-year period were used to rank 9 climate variables and find the best predictive model. • About 9% of the individual variation in tree growth was imputable to the seasonal variation of climate. Relative extractable water was the main predictor and alone explained more than 60% of the climate effect on tree growth, i.e. 5.4% of the individual variation in tree growth. Furthermore, the global annual tree growth was more dependent on the diameter increment at the onset of the rain season than on the duration of dry season. • The best predictive model included 3 climate variables: relative extractable water, minimum temperature and irradiance. The root mean squared error of prediction (0.035 mm.d–1) was slightly above the mean value of the growth (0.026 mm.d–1). • Amongst climate variables, we highlight the predominant role of water availability in determining seasonal variation in tree growth of neotropical forest trees and the need to include these relationships in forest simulators to test, in silico, the impact of different climate scenarios on the future dynamics of the rainforest

Cork oak vulnerability to fire: the role of bark harvesting, tree characteristics and abiotic factors

Forest ecosystems where periodical tree bark harvesting is a major economic activity may be particularly vulnerable to disturbances such as fire, since debarking usually reduces tree vigour and protection against external agents. In this paper we asked how cork oak Quercus suber trees respond after wildfires and, in particular, how bark harvesting affects post-fire tree survival and resprouting. We gathered data from 22 wildfires (4585 trees) that occurred in three southern European countries (Portugal, Spain and France), covering a wide range of conditions characteristic of Q. suber ecosystems. Post-fire tree responses (tree mortality, stem mortality and crown resprouting) were examined in relation to management and ecological factors using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results showed that bark thickness and bark harvesting are major factors affecting resistance of Q. suber to fire. Fire vulnerability was higher for trees with thin bark (young or recently debarked individuals) and decreased with increasing bark thickness until cork was 3–4 cm thick. This bark thickness corresponds to the moment when exploited trees are debarked again, meaning that exploited trees are vulnerable to fire during a longer period. Exploited trees were also more likely to be top-killed than unexploited trees, even for the same bark thickness. Additionally, vulnerability to fire increased with burn severity and with tree diameter, and was higher in trees burned in early summer or located in drier south-facing aspects. We provided tree response models useful to help estimating the impact of fire and to support management decisions. The results suggested that an appropriate management of surface fuels and changes in the bark harvesting regime (e.g. debarking coexisting trees in different years or increasing the harvesting cycle) would decrease vulnerability to fire and contribute to the conservation of cork oak ecosystemsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Rare Species Support Vulnerable Functions in High-Diversity Ecosystems

Around the world, the human-induced collapses of populations and species have triggered a sixth mass extinction crisis, with rare species often being the first to disappear. Although the role of species diversity in the maintenance of ecosystem processes has been widely investigated, the role of rare species remains controversial. A critical issue is whether common species insure against the loss of functions supported by rare species. This issue is even more critical in species-rich ecosystems where high functional redundancy among species is likely and where it is thus often assumed that ecosystem functioning is buffered against species loss. Here, using extensive datasets of species occurrences and functional traits from three highly diverse ecosystems (846 coral reef fishes, 2,979 alpine plants, and 662 tropical trees), we demonstrate that the most distinct combinations of traits are supported predominantly by rare species both in terms of local abundance and regional occupancy. Moreover, species that have low functional redundancy and are likely to support the most vulnerable functions, with no other species carrying similar combinations of traits, are rarer than expected by chance in all three ecosystems. For instance, 63% and 98% of fish species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions in coral reef ecosystems are locally and regionally rare, respectively. For alpine plants, 32% and 89% of such species are locally and regionally rare, respectively. Remarkably, 47% of fish species and 55% of tropical tree species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions have only one individual per sample on average. Our results emphasize the importance of rare species conservation, even in highly diverse ecosystems, which are thought to exhibit high functional redundancy. Rare species offer more than aesthetic, cultural, or taxonomic diversity value; they disproportionately increase the potential breadth of functions provided by ecosystems across spatial scales. As such, they are likely to insure against future uncertainty arising from climate change and the ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. Our results call for a more detailed understanding of the role of rarity and functional vulnerability in ecosystem functioning

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report

This is the final version. Available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record

The response of tropical rainforests to drought : lessons from recent research and future prospects

Key message: we review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. - Context: tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex.- Aims: herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. - Results: this review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. - Conclusion: the numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance