Guidance for Decision

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is preparing a "Handbook of Systems Analysis," which will appear in three volumes: Volume 1, "Overview," is aimed at a widely varied audience of producers and users of systems analysis; Volume 2, "Methods," is aimed at systems analysts who need basic knowledge of methods in which they are not expert; the volume contains introductory overviews of such methods; Volume 3, "Cases," contains descriptions of actual systems analyses that illustrate the methods and diversity of systems analysis. Volume 1 will have ten chapters: 1) The context, nature, and use of systems analysis; 2) Applied systems analysis: a genetic approach; 3) Examples of systems analysis; 4) The method of applied systems analysis: finding a solution; 5) Formulating problems for systems analysis; 6) Generating alternatives for systems analysis; 7) Estimating and predicting consequences; 8) Guidance for decision; 9) Implementation; 10) Principles of good practice. To these ten chapters will be added a glossary of systems analysis terms and a bibliography of basic books in the field. This Working Paper is the current draft of Chapter 8. A word about the format of this Working Paper. In order to make the text of each chapter easily amended, it has been entered into the IIASA computer, from which the current version can be reproduced in a few minute's time whenever needed. This Working Paper was produced from the version current on the date shown on each page

Handbook of Systems Analysis: Volume 1. Overview. Chapter 8. Guidance for Decision

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is preparing a Handbook of Systems Analysis, which will appear in three volumes: Volume 1: Overview is aimed at a widely varied audience of producers and users of systems analysis studies. Volume 2: Methods is aimed at systems analysts and other members of systems analysis teams who need basic knowledge of methods in which they are not expert; this volume contains introductory overviews of such methods. Volume 3: Cases contains descriptions of actual systems analyses that illustrate the diversity of the contexts and methods of systems analysis. Drafts of the material for Volume 1 are being widely circulated for comment and suggested improvement. This Working Paper is the current draft of Chapter 8. Correspondence is invited. Volume 1 will consist of the following ten chapters: 1. The context, nature, and use of systems analysis 2. The genesis of applied systems analysis; 3. Examples of applied systems analysis 4. The methods of applied systems analysis: An introduction and overview 5. Formulating problems for systems analysis 6. Objectives, constraints, and alternatives 7. Predicting the consequences: Models and modeling 8. Guidance for decision 9. Implementation 10. The practice of applied systems analysis To these ten chapters will be added a glossary of systems analysis terms and a bibliography of basic works in the field

Measurements of Atmospheric Antiprotons

We measured atmospheric antiproton spectra in the energy range 0.2 to 3.4 GeV, at sea level and at balloon altitude in the atmospheric depth range 4.5 to 26 g/cm^2. The observed energy spectra, including our previous measurements at mountain altitude, were compared with estimated spectra calculated on various assumptions regarding the energy distribution of antiprotons that interacted with air nuclei.Comment: Accepted for publication in PL

DNA defects, epigenetics, and gene expression in cancer-adjacent breast: A study from the cancer genome atlas

Recurrence rates after breast-conserving therapy may depend on genomic characteristics of cancer-adjacent, benign-appearing tissue. Studies have not evaluated recurrence in association with multiple genomic characteristics of cancer-adjacent breast tissue. To estimate the prevalence of DNA defects and RNA expression subtypes in cancer-adjacent, benign-appearing breast tissue at least 2 cm from the tumor margin, cancer-adjacent, pathologically well-characterized, benign-appearing breast tissue specimens from The Cancer Genome Atlas project were analyzed for DNA sequence, copy-number variation, DNA methylation, messenger RNA (mRNA) sequence, and mRNA/microRNA expression. Additional samples were also analyzed by at least one of these genomic data types and associations between genomic characteristics of normal tissue and overall survival were assessed. Approximately 40% of cancer-adjacent, benign-appearing tissues harbored genomic defects in DNA copy number, sequence, methylation, or in RNA sequence, although these defects did not significantly predict 10-year overall survival. Two mRNA/microRNA expression phenotypes were observed, including an active mRNA subtype that was identified in 40% of samples. Controlling for tumor characteristics and the presence of genomic defects, this active subtype was associated with significantly worse 10-year survival among estrogen receptor (ER)-positive cases. This multi-platform analysis of breast cancer-adjacent samples produced genomic findings consistent with current surgical margin guidelines, and provides evidence that extratumoral RNA expression patterns in cancer-adjacent tissue predict overall survival among patients with ER-positive disease

Measurement of CP observables in B± → D(⁎)K± and B± → D(⁎)π± decays

Measurements of CP observables in B ± →D (⁎) K ± and B ± →D (⁎) π ± decays are presented, where D (⁎) indicates a neutral D or D ⁎ meson that is an admixture of D (⁎)0 and D¯ (⁎)0 states. Decays of the D ⁎ meson to the Dπ 0 and Dγ final states are partially reconstructed without inclusion of the neutral pion or photon, resulting in distinctive shapes in the B candidate invariant mass distribution. Decays of the D meson are fully reconstructed in the K ± π ∓ , K + K − and π + π − final states. The analysis uses a sample of charged B mesons produced in pp collisions collected by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.0, 1.0 and 2.0 fb −1 taken at centre-of-mass energies of s=7, 8 and 13 TeV, respectively. The study of B ± →D ⁎ K ± and B ± →D ⁎ π ± decays using a partial reconstruction method is the first of its kind, while the measurement of B ± →DK ± and B ± →Dπ ± decays is an update of previous LHCb measurements. The B ± →DK ± results are the most precise to date

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele

Pileup mitigation at CMS in 13 TeV data

With increasing instantaneous luminosity at the LHC come additional reconstruction challenges. At high luminosity, many collisions occur simultaneously within one proton-proton bunch crossing. The isolation of an interesting collision from the additional "pileup" collisions is needed for effective physics performance. In the CMS Collaboration, several techniques capable of mitigating the impact of these pileup collisions have been developed. Such methods include charged-hadron subtraction, pileup jet identification, isospin-based neutral particle "δβ" correction, and, most recently, pileup per particle identification. This paper surveys the performance of these techniques for jet and missing transverse momentum reconstruction, as well as muon isolation. The analysis makes use of data corresponding to 35.9 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the CMS experiment in 2016 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The performance of each algorithm is discussed for up to 70 simultaneous collisions per bunch crossing. Significant improvements are found in the identification of pileup jets, the jet energy, mass, and angular resolution, missing transverse momentum resolution, and muon isolation when using pileup per particle identification

Identification of heavy, energetic, hadronically decaying particles using machine-learning techniques

Machine-learning (ML) techniques are explored to identify and classify hadronic decays of highly Lorentz-boosted W/Z/Higgs bosons and top quarks. Techniques without ML have also been evaluated and are included for comparison. The identification performances of a variety of algorithms are characterized in simulated events and directly compared with data. The algorithms are validated using proton-proton collision data at √s = 13TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. Systematic uncertainties are assessed by comparing the results obtained using simulation and collision data. The new techniques studied in this paper provide significant performance improvements over non-ML techniques, reducing the background rate by up to an order of magnitude at the same signal efficiency