Modelling Neglected Tropical Diseases diagnostics: the sensitivity of skin snips for Onchocerca volvulus in near elimination and surveillance settings.

BACKGROUND: The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has proposed provisional thresholds for the prevalence of microfilariae in humans and of L3 larvae in blackflies, below which mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin can be stopped and surveillance started. Skin snips are currently the gold standard test for detecting patent Onchocerca volvulus infection, and the World Health Organization recommends their use to monitor progress of treatment programmes (but not to verify elimination). However, if they are used (in transition and in parallel to Ov-16 serology), sampling protocols should be designed to demonstrate that programmatic goals have been reached. The sensitivity of skin snips is key to the design of such protocols. METHODS: We develop a mathematical model for the number of microfilariae in a skin snip and parameterise it using data from Guatemala, Venezuela, Ghana and Cameroon collected before the start of ivermectin treatment programmes. We use the model to estimate sensitivity as a function of time since last treatment, number of snips taken, microfilarial aggregation and female worm fertility after exposure to 10 annual rounds of ivermectin treatment. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the skin snip method increases with time after treatment, with most of the increase occurring between 0 and 5 years. One year after the last treatment, the sensitivity of two skin snips taken from an individual infected with a single fertile female worm is 31 % if there is no permanent effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on fertility; 18 % if there is a 7 % reduction per treatment, and 0.6 % if there is a 35 % reduction. At 5 years, the corresponding sensitivities are 76 %, 62 % and 4.7 %. The sensitivity improves significantly if 4 skin snips are taken: in the absence of a permanent effect of ivermectin, the sensitivity of 4 skin snips is 53 % 1 year and 94 % 5 years after the last treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our model supports the timelines proposed by APOC for post-MDA follow-up and surveillance surveys every 3-5 years. Two skin snips from the iliac region have reasonable sensitivity to detect residual infection, but the sensitivity can be significantly improved by taking 4 snips. The costs and benefits of using four versus two snips should be evaluated

Response to the Letter to the Editor by Eberhard et al.

In a Letter to the Editor, Eberhard et al. question the validity of our model of skin snip sensitivity and argue against the use of skin snips to evaluate onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration. Here we discuss their arguments and compare model predictions with observed data to assess the validity of our model

Effect of 18F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography on the management of patients with recurrence of prostate cancer: Results from the FALCON Trial

Purpose: Early and accurate localization of lesions in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer may guide salvage therapy decisions. The present study, 18F-Fluciclovine PET/CT in biochemicAL reCurrence Of Prostate caNcer (FALCON; NCT02578940), aimed to evaluate the effect of 18F-fluciclovine on management of men with BCR of prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Men with a first episode of BCR after curative-intent primary therapy were enrolled at 6 UK sites. Patients underwent 18F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) according to standardized procedures. Clinicians documented management plans before and after scanning, recording changes to treatment modality as major and changes within a modality as other. The primary outcome measure was record of a revised management plan postscan. Secondary endpoints were evaluation of optimal prostate specific antigen (PSA) threshold for detection, salvage treatment outcome assessment based on 18F-fluciclovine-involvement, and safety. Results: 18F-Fluciclovine was well tolerated in the 104 scanned patients (median PSA = 0.79 ng/mL). Lesions were detected in 58 out of 104 (56%) patients. Detection was broadly proportional to PSA level; ≤1 ng/mL, 1 out of 3 of scans were positive, and 93% scans were positive at PSA >2.0 ng/mL. Sixty-six (64%) patients had a postscan management change (80% after a positive result). Major changes (43 out of 66; 65%) were salvage or systemic therapy to watchful waiting (16 out of 66; 24%); salvage therapy to systemic therapy (16 out of 66; 24%); and alternative changes to treatment modality (11 out of 66, 17%). The remaining 23 out of 66 (35%) management changes were modifications of the prescan plan: most (22 out of 66; 33%) were adjustments to planned brachytherapy/radiation therapy to include a 18F-fluciclovine-guided boost. Where 18F-fluciclovine guided salvage therapy, the PSA response rate was higher than when 18F-fluciclovine was not involved (15 out of 17 [88%] vs 28 out of 39 [72%]). Conclusions: 18F-Fluciclovine PET/CT located recurrence in the majority of men with BCR, frequently resulting in major management plan changes. Incorporating 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT into treatment planning may optimize targeting of recurrence sites and avoid futile salvage therapy

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

The Laws of Image-nation: Brazilian racial tropes and the shadows of the slave quarters

CAPES Foundation, Proc. N. 09912-1; Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, Birkbeck Law School and the Law and Image Reading Group funded and organized the ‘Law and Image Symposium’

Occupational advice for Patients undergoing Arthroplasty of the Lower limb: An intervention development and feasibility study (The OPAL Study)

Background Hip and knee replacements are regularly performed for patients who work. There is little evidence about these patients’ needs and the factors influencing their return to work. There is a paucity of guidance to help patients return to work after surgery and a need for structured occupational advice to enable them to return to work safely and effectively. Objective(s) To develop an occupational advice intervention to support early recovery to usual activities including work which is tailored to the requirements of patients undergoing hip and knee replacements. To test the acceptability, practicality and feasibility of this intervention within current care frameworks Design An intervention mapping (IM) approach was used to develop the intervention. The research methods employed were: rapid evidence synthesis; qualitative interviews with patients and stakeholders; prospective cohort study; survey of clinical practice; modified Delphi consensus process. The developed intervention was implemented and assessed during the final feasibility stage of the IM process. Setting Orthopaedic departments within NHS secondary care. Participants Patients in work, and intending to return to work following primary elective hip and knee replacement surgery; healthcare professionals and employers. Interventions Occupational advice intervention. Main outcome measures Development of an occupational advice intervention. Fidelity of the developed intervention when delivered in a clinical setting. Patient and clinician perspectives of the intervention. Preliminary assessments of intervention effectiveness and cost. Results A cohort study (154 patients), 110 stakeholder interviews, survey of practice (152 respondents) and evidence synthesis provided the necessary information to develop the intervention. The intervention included information resources, personalized return to work plan and co-ordination from the healthcare team to support the delivery of 13 patient and 20 staff performance objectives (POs). To support delivery, a range of tools (e.g. occupational checklists, patient workbooks, employer information), roles (e.g. return-to-work coordinator) and training resources were created. Feasibility was assessed in 21 of the 26 patients recruited from 3 NHS trusts. Adherence with the defined performance objectives was 75% for patient POs and 74% for staff POs. The intervention was generally well received although the short timeframe available for implementation and concurrent research evaluation led to some confusion amongst patients and those delivering the intervention regarding its purpose and the roles and responsibilities of key staff. Limitations Implementation and uptake of the intervention was not standardized and was limited by the study timeframe. Evaluation of the intervention involved a small number of patients which limited the ability to assess it. Conclusions The developed occupational advice intervention supports best practice. Evaluation demonstrated good rates of adherence against defined performance objectives. However, a number of operational and implementation issues require further attention Future work The intervention warrants a randomised controlled trial to assess its clinical and cost effectiveness to improve rates and timing of sustained return to work after surgery. This research should include the development of a robust implementation strategy to ensure adoption is sustained. Funding This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme (project number 15/28/02) Trial Registrations International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number Trial ID: ISRCTN27426982 International prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) Registration: CRD4201604523

Rehabilitation versus surgical reconstruction for non-acute anterior cruciate ligament injury (ACL SNNAP): a pragmatic randomised controlled trial

BackgroundAnterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is a common debilitating injury that can cause instability of the knee. We aimed to investigate the best management strategy between reconstructive surgery and non-surgical treatment for patients with a non-acute ACL injury and persistent symptoms of instability.MethodsWe did a pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial in 29 secondary care National Health Service orthopaedic units in the UK. Patients with symptomatic knee problems (instability) consistent with an ACL injury were eligible. We excluded patients with meniscal pathology with characteristics that indicate immediate surgery. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by computer to either surgery (reconstruction) or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment), stratified by site and baseline Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score—4 domain version (KOOS4). This management design represented normal practice. The primary outcome was KOOS4 at 18 months after randomisation. The principal analyses were intention-to-treat based, with KOOS4 results analysed using linear regression. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN10110685, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02980367.FindingsBetween Feb 1, 2017, and April 12, 2020, we recruited 316 patients. 156 (49%) participants were randomly assigned to the surgical reconstruction group and 160 (51%) to the rehabilitation group. Mean KOOS4 at 18 months was 73·0 (SD 18·3) in the surgical group and 64·6 (21·6) in the rehabilitation group. The adjusted mean difference was 7·9 (95% CI 2·5–13·2; p=0·0053) in favour of surgical management. 65 (41%) of 160 patients allocated to rehabilitation underwent subsequent surgery according to protocol within 18 months. 43 (28%) of 156 patients allocated to surgery did not receive their allocated treatment. We found no differences between groups in the proportion of intervention-related complications.InterpretationSurgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with non-acute ACL injury with persistent symptoms of instability was clinically superior and more cost-effective in comparison with rehabilitation management

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme