Deterring to Lead? Nuclear Crises, Non-State Proxies, and India's Regional Leadership

Why is India unable to maintain regional leadership in a nuclearized South Asia? In this paper, we explore the impediments to India's regional leadership by examining Delhi's foreign policy behavior within the nuclearized rivalry with Pakistan since 1998. Based on a comparison of Indian foreign policy elites' responses to a set of dyadic crises since overt nuclearisation in 1998, we argue that structural parameters of South Asia's current security environment undermine the prospects of coercing or influencing the behavior of India's most potent contender. More specifically, we argue that Delhi's failure to develop an effective strategy to deter armed resistance is largely due to the combined presence of militant groups and inadequate deterrence strategies. Recurrent, undeterred militant attacks have thus become a symbol of resistance against India's predominance in the region

Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental setup also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote-sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modeling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to producing high levels of atmospheric pollutants or intense biomass burning events in the region. However, numerous mineral dust plumes were observed during the campaign, with the main sources located in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, leading to aerosol optical depth (AOD) values ranging between 0.2 and 0.6 (at 440 nm) over the western and central Mediterranean basins. One important point of this experiment concerns the direct observations of aerosol extinction onboard the ATR-42, using the CAPS system, showing local maxima reaching up to 150Mm(-1) within the dust plume. Non-negligible aerosol extinction (about 50Mm(-1)) has also been observed within the marine boundary layer (MBL). By combining the ATR- 42 extinction coefficient observations with absorption and scattering measurements, we performed a complete optical closure revealing excellent agreement with estimated optical properties. This additional information on extinction properties has allowed calculation of the dust single scattering albedo (SSA) with a high level of confidence over the western Mediterranean. Our results show a moderate variability from 0.90 to 1.00 (at 530 nm) for all flights studied compared to that reported in the literature on this optical parameter. Our results underline also a relatively low difference in SSA with values derived near dust sources. In parallel, active remote-sensing observations from the surface and onboard the F-20 aircraft suggest a complex vertical structure of particles and distinct aerosol layers with sea spray and pollution located within the MBL, and mineral dust and/or aged North American smoke particles located above (up to 6–7 km in altitude). Aircraft and balloon-borne observations allow one to investigate the vertical structure of the aerosol size distribution showing particles characterized by a large size (> 10 μm in diameter) within dust plumes. In most of cases, a coarse mode characterized by an effective diameter ranging between 5 and 10 μm, has been detected above the MBL. In terms of shortwave (SW) direct forcing, in situ surface and aircraft observations have been merged and used as inputs in 1-D radiative transfer codes for calculating the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF). Results show significant surface SW instantaneous forcing (up to (-90)Wm(-2) at noon). Aircraft observations provide also original estimates of the vertical structure of SW and LW radiative heating revealing significant instantaneous values of about 5 K per day in the solar spectrum (for a solar angle of 30 ) within the dust layer. Associated 3-D modeling studies from regional climate (RCM) and chemistry transport (CTM) models indicate a relatively good agreement for simulated AOD compared with observations from the AERONET/PHOTONS network and satellite data, especially for long-range dust transport. Calculations of the 3-D SW (clear-sky) surface DRF indicate an average of about -10 to -20Wm(-2) (for the whole period) over the Mediterranean Sea together with maxima (-50Wm(-2)) over northern Africa. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) DRF is shown to be highly variable within the domain, due to moderate absorbing properties of dust and changes in the surface albedo. Indeed, 3-D simulations indicate negative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe and positive forcing over northern Africa. Finally, a multiyear simulation, performed for the 2003 to 2009 period and including an ocean–atmosphere (O–A) coupling, underlines the impact of the aerosol direct radiative forcing on the sea surface temperature, O–A fluxes and the hydrological cycle over the Mediterranean.French National Research Agency (ANR) ANR-11-BS56-0006ADEMEFrench Atomic Energy CommissionCNRS-INSU and Meteo-France through the multidisciplinary programme MISTRALS (Mediterranean Integrated Studies aT Regional And Local Scales)CORSiCA project - Collectivite Territoriale de Corse through Fonds Europeen de Developpement Regional of the European Operational ProgramContrat de Plan Etat-RegionEuropean Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program 654169Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity TEC2012-34575Science and Innovation UNPC10-4E-442European Union (EU)Department of Economy and Knowledge of the Catalan Autonomous Government SGR 583Andalusian Regional Government P12-RNM-2409Spanish Government CGL2013-45410-R 26225

Altimetry for the future: Building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

Altimetry for the future: building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the “Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

India: the next superpower?: India's soft power: from potential to reality?

Over the last decade, many scholars and analysts have tried to assess India’s emergence as a major actor in the global arena by looking at such material indicators as economic growth, military expansion or demographic evolution. As a consequence, these accounts have mainly overlooked New Delhi’s increased emphasis on developing its ‘soft power’ credentials by using the attractiveness of Indian culture, values and policies. Indian diplomats like Sashi Tharoor have recently argued that if India is now perceived as a superpower, it was not just through trade and politics but also through its ability to share its culture with the world through food, music, technology and Bollywood. However, it is difficult to determine India’s actual soft power resources, or which of these resources have actually helped strengthen India’s global status. With such a difficult concept to define and measure, is it possible to monitor the evolution of India’s soft power over the last decade? Most saliently, can we compare India’s efforts with those of another emerging Asian power, China

Assessing US Influence over India–Israel Relations: A Difficult Equation to Balance?

As India’s Israel policy evolved over time, the US involvement in this bilateral relationship has been constant, albeit neither consistent nor direct. Breaking with traditional state-centric approaches, this article focuses on the key role played in shaping the nature of India–Israel ties by non-state and sub-state actors such as specific political personalities, for example Congressmen Emmanuel Celler in the 1940s and Stephen Solarz in the 1980s, as well as of pro-Israel interest groups based in the US, like the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and the American Jewish Committee (AJC). The article shows that the US factor in India–Israel relations has evolved over time depending on the personalities, political constellations in power in India and regional developments in West Asia. Finally, while India, Israel and US interests seem to have converged at some crucial junctures, the article argues that their policies and strategies have rarely aligned over the long term.The Institutions of Politics; Design, Workings, and implications ( do not use, ended 1-1-2020

Kafala and Social Reproduction: Migration Governance Regimes and Labour Relations in the Gulf

With its roots in a system of imperial labour governance that ‘delegated responsibility over the conduct of individuals to other parties’ (AlShehabi 2019), kafala has often been understood as a policy by which states in the Gulf regulate, police, and exploit migrant labour. This chapter instead works to develop a concept of kafala as a migration governance regime, a way for states to integrate citizens as actors in the migration governance complex and, in doing so, obfuscate questions of accountability, transparency, and regulation. This is most keenly seen in the case of domestic workers who stand to benefit the least from recent reforms to kafala across the region. By focusing on the ways that kafala integrates individual households into the migration governance complex, this chapter aims to foreground the importance of the socially reproductive work done by migrant labourers to the Gulf, and attempts to explain the mechanisms through which their work sits outside the purview of the state’s governance of migrant labourers to the Gulf. The chapter attempts to explain the mechanisms through which domestic work is often excluded from wider considerations regarding migrant labour, even as domestic work is the most common form that migrant labour takes

Evaluation of the Performances of Radar and Lidar Altimetry Missions for Water Level Retrievals in Mountainous Environment: The Case of the Swiss Lakes

International audienceRadar altimetry is now commonly used to provide long-term monitoring of inland water levels in complement to or for replacing disappearing in situ networks of gauge stations. Recent improvements in tracking and acquisition modes improved the quality the water retrievals. The newly implemented Open Loop mode is likely to increase the number of monitored water bodies owing to the use of an a priori elevation, especially in hilly and mountainous areas. The novelty of this study is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the performances of the past and current radar altimetry missions according to their acquisition (Low Resolution Mode or Synthetic Aperture Radar) and tracking (close or open loop) modes, and acquisition frequency (Ku or Ka) in a mountainous area where tracking losses of the signal are likely to occur, as well as of the recently launched ICESat-2 and GEDI lidar missions. To do so, we evaluate the quality of water level retrievals from most radar altimetry missions launched after 1995 over eight lakes in Switzerland, using the recently developed ALtimetry Time Series software, to compare the performances of the new tracking and acquisition modes and also the impact of the frequency used. The combination of the Open Loop tracking mode with the Synthetic Aperture Radar acquisition mode on SENTINEL-3A and B missions outperforms the classical Low Resolution Mode of the other missions with a lake observability greater than 95%, an almost constant bias of (-0.17 +/- 0.04) m, a RMSE generally lower than 0.07 m and a R most of the times higher than 0.85 when compared to in situ gauge records. To increase the number of lakes that can be monitored and the temporal sampling of the water level retrievals, data acquired by lidar altimetry missions were also considered. Very accurate results were also obtained with ICESat-2 data with RMSE lower than 0.06 and R higher than 0.95 when compared to in situ water levels. An almost constant bias (0.42 +/- 0.03) m was also observed. More contrasted results were obtained using GEDI. As these data were available on a shorter time period, more analyses are necessary to determine their potential for retrieving water levels

India: the next superpower?

When Hillary Clinton visited India in 2009, the US Secretary of State's verdict was unequivocal: 'I consider India not just a regional power, but a global power.' Following the success of economic liberalisation in the 1990s, which generated growth rates in excess of 8% and a rising middle class, expectations have grown that India might become a superpower, particularly in a West that sees in India's democratic heritage the potential for strategic partnership. However, there remain deep and pervasive fault-lines within Indian society. Crony capitalism, the collapse of public health systems, a rising Maoist insurgency, and rampant environmental degradation all call into doubt India's superpower aspirations. Rather than seek to expand its influence abroad, India would do well to focus on the fissures within