A probabilistic patient scheduling model for reducing the number of no-shows

No-shows in medical centres cause under-utilisation of resources and increase waiting times in specialty health care services. Although this problem has been addressed in literature, behavioural issues associated with the patient's socio-demographic characteristics and diagnosis have not been widely studied. In this article, we propose a model that includes such behavioural issues in order to reduce impact of no-shows in medical services. The objective is maximising the health centre's expected revenue by using show-up probabilities estimated for each combination of patient and appointment slot. Additionally, the model considers the requirements imposed by both the health centre's management and the health authorities. An extension of the model allows overbooking in some appointment slots. Experimental results show that the proposed model can reduce the waiting list length by 13%, and to attain an increase of about 5% in revenue, when comparing to a model that assigns patients to the first available slot

Cognitive Principles of Schematisation for Wayfinding Assistance

People often need assistance to successfully perform wayfinding tasks in unfamiliar environments. Nowadays, a huge variety of wayfinding assistance systems exists. All these systems intend to present the needed information for a certain wayfinding situation in an adequate presentation. Some wayfinding assistance systems utilize findings for the field of cognitive sciences to develop and design cognitive ergonomic approaches. These approaches aim to be systems with which the users can effortless interact with and which present needed information in a way the user can acquire the information naturally. Therefore it is necessary to determinate the information needs of the user in a certain wayfinding task and to investigate how this information is processed and conceptualised by the wayfinder to be able to present it adequately. Cognitive motivated schematic maps are an example which employ this knowledge and emphasise relevant information and present it in an easily readable way. In my thesis I present a transfer approach to reuse the knowledge of well-grounded knowledge of schematisation techniques from one externalisation such as maps to another externalization such as virtual environments. A analysis of the informational need of the specific wayfinding task route following is done one the hand of a functional decomposition as well as a deep analysis of representation-theoretic consideration of the external representations maps and virtual environments. Concluding from these results, guidelines for transferring schematisation principles between different representation types are proposed. Specifically, this thesis chose the exemplary transfer of the schematisation technique wayfinding choremes from a map presentation into a virtual environment to present the theoretic requirements for a successful transfer. Wayfinding choremes are abstract mental concepts of turning action which are accessible as graphical externalisation integrated into route maps. These wayfinding choremes maps emphasis the turning action along the route by displaying the angular information as prototypes of 45° or 90°. This schematisation technique enhances wayfinding performance by supporting the matching processes between the map representation and the internal mental representation of the user. I embed the concept of wayfinding choremes into a virtual environment and present a study to test if the transferred schematisation technique also enhance the wayfinding performance. The empirical investigations present a successful transfer of the concept of the wayfinding choremes. Depending on the complexity of the route the embedded schematization enhance the wayfinding performance of participants who try to follow a route from memory. Participants who trained and recall the route in a schematised virtual environment make fewer errors than the participants of the unmodified virtual world. This thesis sets an example of the close research circle of cognitive behavioural studies to representation-theoretical considerations to applications of wayfinding assistance and their evaluations back to new conclusions in cognitive science. It contributes an interdisciplinary comprehensive inspection of the interplay of environmental factors and mental processes on the example of angular information and mental distortion of this information

K−K^--Nucleus Scattering at Low and Intermediate Energies

We calculate $K^-$-nucleus elastic differential, reaction and total cross sections for different nuclei ($^{12}$C,$^{40}$Ca and $^{208}$Pb) at several laboratory antikaon momenta, ranging from 127 MeV to 800 MeV. We use different antikaon-nucleus optical potentials, some of them fitted to kaonic atom data, and study the sensitivity of the cross sections to the considered antikaon-nucleus dynamics.Comment: Only 4 pages, Latex, 3 Figures. This version is much shorter than the previous one. Some details and references have been omitte

Accurate Prediction of Children's ADHD Severity Using Family Burden Information: A Neural Lasso Approach

The deep lasso algorithm (dlasso) is introduced as a neural version of the statistical linear lasso algorithm that holds benefits from both methodologies: feature selection and automatic optimization of the parameters (including the regularization parameter). This last property makes dlasso particularly attractive for feature selection on small samples. In the two first conducted experiments, it was observed that dlasso is capable of obtaining better performance than its non-neuronal version (traditional lasso), in terms of predictive error and correct variable selection. Once that dlasso performance has been assessed, it is used to determine whether it is possible to predict the severity of symptoms in children with ADHD from four scales that measure family burden, family functioning, parental satisfaction, and parental mental health. Results show that dlasso is able to predict parents' assessment of the severity of their children's inattention from only seven items from the previous scales. These items are related to parents' satisfaction and degree of parental burden

Chirally motivated K^- nuclear potentials

In-medium subthreshold KbarN scattering amplitudes calculated within a chirally motivated meson-baryon coupled-channel model are used self consistently to confront K^- atom data across the periodic table. Substantially deeper K^- nuclear potentials are obtained compared to the shallow potentials derived in some approaches from threshold amplitudes, with Re V_{chiral} = -(85+/-5) MeV at nuclear matter density. When KbarNN contributions are incorporated phenomenologically, a very deep K^- nuclear potential results, Re V_{chiral+phen.} = -(180+/-5) MeV, in agreement with density dependent potentials obtained in purely phenomenological fits to the data. Self consistent dynamical calculations of K^- nuclear quasibound states are reported and discussed.Comment: extended discussion, unchanged results and conclusions, accepted by PL

Can metacognitive interventions improve insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) tend to lack insight, which is linked to poor outcomes. The effect size of previous treatments on insight changes in SSD has been small. Metacognitive interventions may improve insight in SSD, although this remains unproved. Methods: We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to examine the effects of metacognitive interventions designed for SSD, namely Metacognitive Training (MCT) and Metacognitive Reflection and Insight Therapy (MERIT), on changes in cognitive and clinical insight at post-treatment and at follow-up. Results: Twelve RCTs, including 10 MCT RCTs (n = 717 participants) and two MERIT trials (n = 90), were selected, totalling N = 807 participants. Regarding cognitive insight six RCTs (n = 443) highlighted a medium effect of MCT on self-reflectiveness at post-treatment, d = 0.46, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.30, p < 0.01. There was a small effect of MCT on self-certainty at post-treatment, d = −0.23, p = 0.03, but not at follow-up. MCT was superior to controls on an overall Composite Index of cognitive insight at post-treatment, d = 1.11, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.86, p = 0.03, although we found evidence of heterogeneity. Of five MCT trials on clinical insight (n = 244 participants), which could not be meta-analysed, four of them favoured MCT compared v. control. The two MERIT trials reported conflicting results. Conclusions: Metacognitive interventions, particularly Metacognitive Training, appear to improve insight in patients with SSD, especially cognitive insight shortly after treatment. Further long-term RCTs are needed to establish whether these metacognitive interventions-related insight changes are sustained over a longer time period and result in better outcomes

Diverse responses of common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations to Late Glacial and Early Holocene climate changes – Evidence from ancient DNA

The harsh climatic conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period have been considered the cause of local extinctions and major faunal reorganizations that took place at the end of the Pleistocene. Recent studies have shown, however, that in addition many of these ecological events were associated with abrupt climate changes during the so-called Late Glacial and the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. Here we used ancient DNA to investigate the impact of those changes on European populations of temperate vole species (Microtus arvalis). The genetic diversity of modern populations and the fossil record suggests that the species may have survived cold episodes, like LGM, not only in the traditional Mediterranean glacial refugia but also at higher latitudes in cryptic northern refugia located in Central France, the northern Alps as well as the Carpathians. However, the details of the post-glacial recolonization and the impact of the Late Glacial and Early Holocene climate changes on the evolutionary history of the common vole remains unclear. To address this issue, we analysed mtDNA cytochrome b sequences from more than one hundred common vole specimens from 36 paleontological and archaeological sites scattered across Europe. Our data suggest that populations from the European mid- and high latitudes suffered a local population extinction and contraction as a result of Late Glacial and Early Holocene climate and environmental changes. The recolonization of earlier abandoned areas took place in the Mid- to Late Holocene. In contrast, at low latitudes, in Northern Spain there was a continuity of common vole populations. This indicates different responses of common vole populations to climate and environmental changes across Europe and corroborates the hypothesis that abrupt changes, like those associated with Younger Dryas and the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, had a significant impact on populations at the mid- and high latitudes of Europe

A pilot 1-year follow-up randomised controlled trial comparing metacognitive training to psychoeducation in schizophrenia: effects on insight

Poor insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) is linked with negative outcomes. This single-centre, assessor-blind, parallel-group 1-year follow-up randomised controlled trial (RCT) tested whether metacognitive training (MCT) (compared to psychoeducation) may improve insight and outcomes in outpatients with SSD assessed: at baseline (T0); after treatment (T1) and at 1-year follow-up (T2). Insight (primary outcome) was measured with (i) the Schedule for Assessment of Insight-Expanded version- (SAI-E), including illness recognition (IR), symptom relabelling (SR), treatment compliance (TC) and total insight scores (TIS); and (ii) the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale (BCIS). Between-group comparisons were nonsignificant, while within the MCT group (but not within controls) there was a significant medium effect size for improved TIS at T2 (d = 0.67, P = 0.02). Secondary outcomes included cognitive measures: Jumping to Conclusions (JTC), Theory of Mind (ToM), plus symptom severity and functioning. Compared to psychoeducation, MCT improved the PANSS excitement (d = 1.21, P = 0.01) and depressed (d = 0.76, P = 0.05) factors at T2; and a JTC task both at T1 (P = 0.016) and at T2 (P = 0.031). Participants in this RCT receiving MCT showed improved insight at 1-year follow-up, which was associated with better mood and reduced JTC cognitive bias. In this pilot study, no significant benefits on insight of MCT over psychoeducation were detected, which may have been due to insufficient power

Deformación transcurrente y cuaternaria asociada al sistema de falla Pachatusan-Cusco

El sistema de fallas Pachatusan está ubicado a 5 km de la ciudad de Cusco (Figura 1.b). Tiene una longitud aproximada de 25 km y consiste en segmentos sub-paralelos de dirección N130ºE a N140ºE. Los segmentos de fallas que componen todo este sistema afectan depósitos y morfologías de ambientes fluvio-glaciares y rocas volcánicas del Cuaternario. Cabrera (1988) describe desplazamientos verticales de morrenas posiblemente holocenas, además señala desplazamientos de hasta 10m. Benavente et. al. (2013) muestran un cartografiado más detallado y describen desplazamientos verticales mayores a 15m. En la actualidad existen nuevas herramientas que permiten identificar fallas activas con mayor precisión, estas herramientas permiten estimar deformación vertical y lateral. En este sentido, en base a trabajos de sensores remotos y de campo mostramos nuevas evidencias de deformación transcurrente en la zona noroeste del sistema de fallas Pachatusan, denominado Sector Huacoto, por su cercanía al poblado de Huacoto (Figura 1.c). Cabe resaltar que la información generada es importante para la caracterización del sistema de falla Pachatusan como fuente sismogénica, ya que las capacidades sismogénicas de una falla normal pura y una falla transcurrente son diferentes. En este sentido, estos primeros resultados nos permitirán hacer una evaluación sobre el peligro sísmico al que se encuentra expuesta la ciudad del Cusco

Discontinuous transitions in double exchange materials

It is shown that the double exchange Hamiltonian, with weak antiferromagnetic interactions, has a rich variety of first order transitions between phases with different electronic densities and/or magnetizations. For band fillings in the range $0.3 \le x \le 0.5$, and at finite temperatures, a discontinuous transition between phases with similar electronic densities but different magnetizations takes place. This sharp transition, which is not suppressed by electrostatic effects, and survives in the presence of an applied field, is consistent with the phenomenology of the doped manganites near the transition temperature.Comment: three more variational ansatzs considere