A comparison between the APACHE II and Charlson Index Score for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risk adjustment and mortality prediction in studies of critical care are usually performed using acuity of illness scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), which emphasize physiological derangement. Common risk adjustment systems used in administrative datasets, like the Charlson index, are entirely based on the presence of co-morbid illnesses. The purpose of this study was to compare the discriminative ability of the Charlson index to the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in adult multisystem ICU patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a population-based cohort design. The study sample consisted of adult (>17 years of age) residents of the Calgary Health Region admitted to a multisystem ICU between April 2002 and March 2004. Clinical data were collected prospectively and linked to hospital outcome data. Multiple regression analyses were used to compare the performance of APACHE II and the Charlson index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Charlson index was a poor predictor of mortality (C = 0.626). There was minimal difference between a baseline model containing age, sex and acute physiology score (C = 0.74) and models containing either chronic health points (C = 0.76) or Charlson index variations (C = 0.75, 0.76, 0.77). No important improvement in prediction occurred when the Charlson index was added to the full APACHE II model (C = 0.808 to C = 0.813).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Charlson index does not perform as well as the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients. However, when acuity of illness scores are unavailable or are not recorded in a standard way, the Charlson index might be considered as an alternative method of risk adjustment and therefore facilitate comparisons between intensive care units.</p

Comparative study of in situ N2 rotational Raman spectroscopy methods for probing energy thermalisation processes during spin-exchange optical pumping

Spin-exchange optical pumping (SEOP) has been widely used to produce enhancements in nuclear spin polarisation for hyperpolarised noble gases. However, some key fundamental physical processes underlying SEOP remain poorly understood, particularly in regards to how pump laser energy absorbed during SEOP is thermalised, distributed and dissipated. This study uses in situ ultra-low frequency Raman spectroscopy to probe rotational temperatures of nitrogen buffer gas during optical pumping under conditions of high resonant laser flux and binary Xe/N2 gas mixtures. We compare two methods of collecting the Raman scattering signal from the SEOP cell: a conventional orthogonal arrangement combining intrinsic spatial filtering with the utilisation of the internal baffles of the Raman spectrometer, eliminating probe laser light and Rayleigh scattering, versus a new in-line modular design that uses ultra-narrowband notch filters to remove such unwanted contributions. We report a ~23-fold improvement in detection sensitivity using the in-line module, which leads to faster data acquisition and more accurate real-time monitoring of energy transport processes during optical pumping. The utility of this approach is demonstrated via measurements of the local internal gas temperature (which can greatly exceed the externally measured temperature) as a function of incident laser power and position within the cell

A Survey on the Krein-von Neumann Extension, the corresponding Abstract Buckling Problem, and Weyl-Type Spectral Asymptotics for Perturbed Krein Laplacians in Nonsmooth Domains

In the first (and abstract) part of this survey we prove the unitary equivalence of the inverse of the Krein--von Neumann extension (on the orthogonal complement of its kernel) of a densely defined, closed, strictly positive operator, $S\geq \varepsilon I_{\mathcal{H}}$ for some $\varepsilon >0$ in a Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}$ to an abstract buckling problem operator. This establishes the Krein extension as a natural object in elasticity theory (in analogy to the Friedrichs extension, which found natural applications in quantum mechanics, elasticity, etc.). In the second, and principal part of this survey, we study spectral properties for $H_{K,\Omega}$, the Krein--von Neumann extension of the perturbed Laplacian $-\Delta+V$ (in short, the perturbed Krein Laplacian) defined on $C^\infty_0(\Omega)$, where $V$ is measurable, bounded and nonnegative, in a bounded open set $\Omega\subset\mathbb{R}^n$ belonging to a class of nonsmooth domains which contains all convex domains, along with all domains of class $C^{1,r}$, $r>1/2$.Comment: 68 pages. arXiv admin note: extreme text overlap with arXiv:0907.144

Educational outreach in an integrated clinical management tool for nurse-led non-communicable chronic disease management in primary care in South Africa: pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: In many low-income countries, care for patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions is provided by nurses. The benefits of nurse substitution and supplementation in NCD care in high income settings are well recognised, but evidence from low- and middle-income countries is limited. Primary Care 101 (PC101) is a programme designed to support and expand nurses’ role in NCD care, comprising a clinical management tool with enhanced prescribing provisions for nurses, and educational outreach. We evaluated the effectiveness of the programme on primary care nurses’ capacity to manage NCDs (ISRCTN20283604). Methods and findings: In a cluster randomised controlled trial design, 38 public sector primary care clinics in the Western Cape province, South Africa, were randomised. Nurses in the intervention clinics were trained to use the PC101 management tool during educational outreach sessions delivered by health department trainers and authorised to prescribe an expanded range of drugs for several NCDs. Control clinics continued use of the Practical Approach to Lung Health and HIV /AIDS in South Africa (PALSA PLUS) management tool and usual training. Patients attending these clinics with one or more of hypertension (3227), diabetes (1842), chronic respiratory disease (1157) or screened positive for depression (2466), totalling 4393 patients, were enrolled between March 2011 and October 2011. Primary outcomes were treatment intensification for hypertension, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease cohorts, defined as the proportion of patients in whom treatment was escalated during follow-up over 14 months, and case detection in the depression cohort. Primary outcome data were analysed for 2110 (97%) intervention and 2170 (97%) control group patients. Treatment intensification rates in intervention clinics were not superior to those in the control group clinics [hypertension: 44% in the intervention group versus 40% in the controls, risk ratio (RR) 1.08 (95% CI: 0.94 to 1.24; p=0.252); diabetes: 57% v 50%, RR 1.10 (0.97 to 1.24;p=0.126); chronic respiratory disease: 14% v 12%, RR 1.08 (0.75 to 1.55; p=0.674); and case detection of depression: 18% v 24%, RR 0.76 (0.53 to 1.10; p=0.142)]. No adverse effects of the nurses’ expanded scope of practice were observed. Limitations of the study include dependence on self-reported diagnoses for inclusion in the patient cohorts, limited data on uptake of PC101 by users, reliance on process outcomes, and insufficient resources to measure important health outcomes, such as HbA1c, at follow-up. Conclusions: Educational outreach to primary care nurses through use of a management tool involving an expanded role in managing NCDs, is feasible and safe but was not associated with treatment intensification or case detection for index diseases. This notwithstanding, the intervention, with adjustments to improve its effectiveness, has been adopted for implementation in primary care clinics throughout South Africa

Incidence of Schizophrenia and Other Psychoses in England, 1950–2009: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Background We conducted a systematic review of incidence rates in England over a sixty-year period to determine the extent to which rates varied along accepted (age, sex) and less-accepted epidemiological gradients (ethnicity, migration and place of birth and upbringing, time). Objectives To determine variation in incidence of several psychotic disorders as above. Data Sources Published and grey literature searches (MEDLINE, PSycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, ASSIA, HMIC), and identification of unpublished data through bibliographic searches and author communication. Study Eligibility Criteria Published 1950–2009; conducted wholly or partially in England; original data on incidence of non-organic adult-onset psychosis or one or more factor(s) pertaining to incidence. Participants People, 16–64 years, with first -onset psychosis, including non-affective psychoses, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, psychotic depression and substance-induced psychosis. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods Title, abstract and full-text review by two independent raters to identify suitable citations. Data were extracted to a standardized extraction form. Descriptive appraisals of variation in rates, including tables and forest plots, and where suitable, random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions to test specific hypotheses; rate heterogeneity was assessed by the I2-statistic. Results 83 citations met inclusion. Pooled incidence of all psychoses (N = 9) was 31.7 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 24.6–40.9), 23.2 (95%CI: 18.3–29.5) for non-affective psychoses (N = 8), 15.2 (95%CI: 11.9–19.5) for schizophrenia (N = 15) and 12.4 (95%CI: 9.0–17.1) for affective psychoses (N = 7). This masked rate heterogeneity (I2: 0.54–0.97), possibly explained by socio-environmental factors; our review confirmed (via meta-regression) the typical age-sex interaction in psychosis risk, including secondary peak onset in women after 45 years. Rates of most disorders were elevated in several ethnic minority groups compared with the white (British) population. For example, for schizophrenia: black Caribbean (pooled RR: 5.6; 95%CI: 3.4–9.2; N = 5), black African (pooled RR: 4.7; 95%CI: 3.3–6.8; N = 5) and South Asian groups in England (pooled RR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.3–4.5; N = 3). We found no evidence to support an overall change in the incidence of psychotic disorder over time, though diagnostic shifts (away from schizophrenia) were reported. Limitations Incidence studies were predominantly cross-sectional, limiting causal inference. Heterogeneity, while evidencing important variation, suggested pooled estimates require interpretation alongside our descriptive systematic results. Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings Incidence of psychotic disorders varied markedly by age, sex, place and migration status/ethnicity. Stable incidence over time, together with a robust socio-environmental epidemiology, provides a platform for developing prediction models for health service planning

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.This work was primarily supported by grant no. OPP1132415 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Co-authors used by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (E.G.P. and R.R.3) provided feedback on initial maps and drafts of this manuscript. L.G.A. has received support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Brasil (CAPES), Código de Financiamento 001 and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) (grant nos. 404710/2018-2 and 310797/2019-5). O.O.Adetokunboh acknowledges the National Research Foundation, Department of Science and Innovation and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis. M.Ausloos, A.Pana and C.H. are partially supported by a grant from the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project no. PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. P.C.B. would like to acknowledge the support of F. Alam and A. Hussain. T.W.B. was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. K.Deribe is supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant no. 201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his international intermediate fellowship. C.H. and A.Pana are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project no. PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351. B.Hwang is partially supported by China Medical University (CMU109-MF-63), Taichung, Taiwan. M.Khan acknowledges Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University for their support. A.M.K. acknowledges the other collaborators and the corresponding author. Y.K. was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia (grant no. XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITM/0004). K.Krishan is supported by a DST PURSE grant and UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II) awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M.Kumar would like to acknowledge FIC/NIH K43 TW010716-03. I.L. is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), Panamá. M.L. was supported by China Medical University, Taiwan (CMU109-N-22 and CMU109-MF-118). W.M. is currently a programme analyst in Population and Development at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Country Office in Peru, which does not necessarily endorses this study. D.E.N. acknowledges Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council. G.C.P. is supported by an NHMRC research fellowship. P.Rathi acknowledges support from Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India. Ramu Rawat acknowledges the support of the GBD Secretariat for supporting the reviewing and collaboration of this paper. B.R. acknowledges support from Manipal College of Health Professions, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. A.Ribeiro was supported by National Funds through FCT, under the programme of ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment—Individual Support’ within the contract no. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND 2018/CEECIND/02386/2018/CP1538/CT0001/PT. S.Sajadi acknowledges colleagues at Global Burden of Diseases and Local Burden of Disease. A.M.S. acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. F.S. was supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (grant no. KQTD20190929172835662). A.Sheikh is supported by Health Data Research UK. B.K.S. acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for all the academic support. B.U. acknowledges support from Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. C.S.W. is supported by the South African Medical Research Council. Y.Z. was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant no. Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle-aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant no. T2020003). The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. All maps presented in this study are generated by the authors and no permissions are required to publish them

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe