Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities

Antibiotic use among patients with febrile illness in a low malaria endemicity setting in Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Uganda embraced the World Health Organization guidelines that recommend a universal 'test and treat' strategy for malaria, mainly by use of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and microscopy. However, little is known how increased parasitological diagnosis for malaria influences antibiotic treatment among patients with febrile illness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data collection was carried out within a feasibility trial of presumptive diagnosis of malaria (control) and two diagnostic interventions (microscopy or RDT) in a district of low transmission intensity. Five primary level health centres (HCs) were randomized to each diagnostic arm (diagnostic method in a defined group of patients). All 52,116 outpatients (presumptive 16,971; microscopy 17,508; and RDT 17,638) aged 5 months to ninety five years presenting with fever (by statement or measured) were included. Information from outpatients and laboratory registers was extracted weekly from March 2010 to July 2011. The proportion of patients who were prescribed antibiotics was calculated among those not tested for malaria, those who tested positive and in those who tested negative.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seven thousand and forty (41.5%) patients in the presumptive arm were prescribed antibiotics. Of the patients not tested for malaria, 1,537 (23.9%) in microscopy arm and 810 (56.2%) in RDT arm were prescribed antibiotics. Among patients who tested positive for malaria, 845 (25.8%) were prescribed antibiotics in the RDT and 273(17.6%) in the microscopy arm. Among patients who tested negative for malaria, 7809 (61.4%) were prescribed antibiotics in the RDT and 3749 (39.3%) in the microscopy arm. Overall the prescription of antibiotics was more common for children less than five years of age 5,388 (63%) compared to those five years and above 16798 (38.6%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Prescription of antibiotics in patients with febrile illness is high. Testing positive for malaria reduces antibiotic treatment but testing negative for malaria increases use of antibiotics.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00565071">NCT00565071</a></p

Febrile Illness Management in Children under Five Years of Age: A Qualitative Pilot Study on Primary Health Care Workers' Practices in Zanzibar.

In Zanzibar, malaria prevalence dropped substantially in the last decade and presently most febrile patients seen in primary health care facilities (PHCF) test negative for malaria. The availability of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) allows rural health workers to reliably rule out malaria in fever patients. However, additional diagnostic tools to identify alternative fever causes are scarce, often leaving RDT-negative patients without a clear diagnosis and management plan. This pilot study aimed to explore health workers' practices with febrile children and identify factors influencing their diagnostic and management decisions in non-malarial fever patients. Semi-structured key informant interviews were conducted with 12 health workers in six PHCFs in North A district, Zanzibar, April to June 2011. Interviews were coded using Atlas.ti to identify emerging themes that play a role in the diagnosis and management of febrile children. The following themes were identified: 1) health workers use caregivers' history of illness and RDT results for initial diagnostic and management decisions, but suggest caregivers need more education to prevent late presentation and poor health outcomes; 2) there is uncertainty regarding viral versus bacterial illness and health workers feel additional point-of-care diagnostic tests would help with differential diagnoses; 3) stock-outs of medications and limited caregivers' resources are barriers to delivering good care; 4) training, short courses and participation in research as well as; 5) weather also influences diagnostic decision-making. This pilot study found that health workers in Zanzibar use caregiver history of fever and results of malaria RDTs to guide management of febrile children. However, since most febrile children test negative for malaria, health workers believe additional training and point-of-care tests would improve their ability to diagnose and manage non-malarial fevers. Educating caregivers on signs and symptoms of febrile illness, as well as the introduction of additional tests to differentiate between viral and bacterial illness, would be important steps to get children to PHCFs earlier and decrease unnecessary antibiotic prescribing without compromising patient safety. More research is needed to expand an understanding of what would improve fever management in other resource-limited settings with decreasing malaria

Genetic association study of QT interval highlights role for calcium signaling pathways in myocardial repolarization.

The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD

A stakeholder co-design approach for developing a community pharmacy service to enhance screening and management of atrial fibrillation

The authors would like to thank all participants in this research for their valuable input into the co-design process.Background: Community pharmacies provide a suitable setting to promote self-screening programs aimed at enhancing the early detection of atrial fibrillation (AF). Developing and implementing novel community pharmacy services (CPSs) is a complex and acknowledged challenge, which requires comprehensive planning and the participation of relevant stakeholders. Co-design processes are participatory research approaches that can enhance the development, evaluation and implementation of health services. The aim of this study was to co-design a pharmacist-led CPS aimed at enhancing self-monitoring/screening of AF. Methods: A 3-step co-design process was conducted using qualitative methods: (1) interviews and focus group with potential service users (n = 8) to identify key needs and concerns; (2) focus group with a mixed group of stakeholders (n = 8) to generate a preliminary model of the service; and (3) focus group with community pharmacy owners and managers (n = 4) to explore the feasibility and appropriateness of the model. Data were analysed qualitatively to identify themes and intersections between themes. The JeMa2 model to conceptualize pharmacybased health programs was used to build a theoretical model of the service. Results: Stakeholders delineated: a clear target population (i.e., individuals ≥65 years old, with hypertension, with or without previous AF or stroke); the components of the service (i.e., patient education; self-monitoring at home; results evaluation, referral and follow-up); and a set of circumstances that may influence the implementation of the service (e.g., quality of the service, competency of the pharmacist, inter-professional relationships, etc.). A number of strategies were recommended to enable implementation (e.g.,. endorsement by leading cardiovascular organizations, appropriate communication methods and channels between the pharmacy and the general medical practice settings, etc.). Conclusion: A novel and preliminary model of a CPS aimed at enhancing the management of AF was generated from this participatory process. This model can be used to inform decision making processes aimed at adopting and piloting of the service. It is expected the co-designed service has been adapted to suit existing needs of patients and current care practices, which, in turn, may increase the feasibility and acceptance of the service when it is implemented into a real setting.This work was funded by Covidien Pty Ltd. (Medtronic Australasia Pty Ltd) [UTS Project code: PRO16–0688], which is the company that has the rights to distribute the device Microlife BP A200 AFIB in Australia. Also, funding for this research has been provided by a UTS Chancellor’s postdoctoral fellowship awarded to the first author of this article (ID number: 2013001605)

The interRAI Suite of Mental Health Assessment Instruments: An Integrated System for the Continuum of Care

The lives of persons living with mental illness are affected by psychological, biological, social, economic, and environmental factors over the life course. It is therefore unlikely that simple preventive strategies, clinical treatments, therapeutic interventions, or policy options will succeed as singular solutions for the challenges of mental illness. Persons living with mental illness receive services and supports in multiple settings across the health care continuum that are often fragmented, uncoordinated, and inadequately responsive. Appropriate assessment is an important tool that health systems must deploy to respond to the strengths, preferences, and needs of persons with mental illness. However, standard approaches are often focused on measurement of psychiatric symptoms without taking a broader perspective to address issues like growth, development, and aging; physical health and disability; social relationships; economic resources; housing; substance use; involvement with criminal justice; stigma; and recovery. Using conglomerations of instruments to cover more domains is impractical, inconsistent, and incomplete while posing considerable assessment burden. interRAI mental health instruments were developed by a network of over 100 researchers, clinicians, and policy experts from over 35 nations. This includes assessment systems for adults in inpatient psychiatry, community mental health, emergency departments, mobile crisis teams, and long-term care settings, as well as a screening system for police officers. A similar set of instruments is available for child/youth mental health. The instruments form an integrated mental health information system because they share a common assessment language, conceptual basis, clinical emphasis, data collection approach, data elements, and care planning protocols. The key applications of these instruments include care planning, outcome measurement, quality improvement, and resource allocation. The composition of these instruments and psychometric properties are reviewed, and examples related to homeless are used to illustrate the various applications of these assessment systems

The availability of snack food displays that may trigger impulse purchases in Melbourne supermarkets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Supermarkets play a major role in influencing the food purchasing behaviours of most households. Snack food exposures within these stores may contribute to higher levels of consumption and ultimately to increasing levels of obesity, particularly within socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods. We aimed to examine the availability of snack food displays at checkouts, end-of-aisle displays and island displays in major supermarket chains in the least and most socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods of Melbourne.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Within-store audits of 35 Melbourne supermarkets. Supermarkets were sampled from the least and most socioeconomically disadvantaged suburbs within 30 km of the Melbourne CBD. We measured the availability of crisps, chocolate, confectionery, and soft drinks (diet and regular) at the checkouts, in end-of-aisle displays, and in island bin displays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Snack food displays were most prominent at checkouts with only five stores not having snack foods at 100% of their checkouts. Snack foods were also present at a number of end-of-aisle displays (at both the front (median 38%) and back (median 33%) of store), and in island bin displays (median number of island displays: 7; median total circumference of island displays: 19.4 metres). Chocolate items were the most common snack food item on display. There was no difference in the availability of these snack food displays by neighbourhood disadvantage.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>As a result of the high availability of snack food displays, exposure to snack foods is almost unavoidable in Melbourne supermarkets, regardless of levels of neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage. Results of this study could promote awareness of the prominence of unhealthy food items in chain-brand supermarkets outlets.</p

The Emergence of Rotavirus G12 and the Prevalence of Enteric Viruses in Hospitalized Pediatric Diarrheal Patients in Southern Vietnam

Diarrhea is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in developing countries, and the majority of infections are of viral etiology. We aimed to compare the etiological prevalence of the major enteric viruses in an urban and a rural setting in southern Vietnam. We simultaneously screened fecal specimens from 362 children in Ho Chi Minh City and Dong Thap province that were hospitalized with acute diarrhea over a 1-month-long period for four viral gastrointestinal pathogens. Rotavirus was the most common pathogen identified, but there was a differential prevalence of rotavirus and norovirus between the urban and rural locations. Furthermore, rotavirus genotyping and phylogenetic analysis again differentiated the genotypes by the sampling location. Our data show a disproportional distribution of enteric viral pathogens in urban and rural locations, and we provide evidence of continual importation of new rotavirus strains into southern Vietnam and report the emergence of rotavirus genotype G12

A Single Nucleotide Change Affects Fur-Dependent Regulation of sodB in H. pylori

Helicobacter pylori is a significant human pathogen that has adapted to survive the many stresses found within the gastric environment. Superoxide Dismutase (SodB) is an important factor that helps H. pylori combat oxidative stress. sodB was previously shown to be repressed by the Ferric Uptake Regulator (Fur) in the absence of iron (apo-Fur regulation) [1]. Herein, we show that apo regulation is not fully conserved among all strains of H. pylori. apo-Fur dependent changes in sodB expression are not observed under iron deplete conditions in H. pylori strains G27, HPAG1, or J99. However, Fur regulation of pfr and amiE occurs as expected. Comparative analysis of the Fur coding sequence between G27 and 26695 revealed a single amino acid difference, which was not responsible for the altered sodB regulation. Comparison of the sodB promoters from G27 and 26695 also revealed a single nucleotide difference within the predicted Fur binding site. Alteration of this nucleotide in G27 to that of 26695 restored apo-Fur dependent sodB regulation, indicating that a single base difference is at least partially responsible for the difference in sodB regulation observed among these H. pylori strains. Fur binding studies revealed that alteration of this single nucleotide in G27 increased the affinity of Fur for the sodB promoter. Additionally, the single base change in G27 enabled the sodB promoter to bind to apo-Fur with affinities similar to the 26695 sodB promoter. Taken together these data indicate that this nucleotide residue is important for direct apo-Fur binding to the sodB promoter