Data-Centric Epidemic Forecasting: A Survey

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently conceptualized as being analogous to weather forecasting, however it has some key differences and remains a non-trivial task. The spread of diseases is subject to multiple confounding factors spanning human behavior, pathogen dynamics, weather and environmental conditions. Research interest has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources capturing previously unobservable facets and also due to initiatives from government public health and funding agencies. This has resulted, in particular, in a spate of work on 'data-centered' solutions which have shown potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities by leveraging non-traditional data sources as well as recent innovations in AI and machine learning. This survey delves into various data-driven methodological and practical advancements and introduces a conceptual framework to navigate through them. First, we enumerate the large number of epidemiological datasets and novel data streams that are relevant to epidemic forecasting, capturing various factors like symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce, mobility, genomics data and more. Next, we discuss methods and modeling paradigms focusing on the recent data-driven statistical and deep-learning based methods as well as on the novel class of hybrid models that combine domain knowledge of mechanistic models with the effectiveness and flexibility of statistical approaches. We also discuss experiences and challenges that arise in real-world deployment of these forecasting systems including decision-making informed by forecasts. Finally, we highlight some challenges and open problems found across the forecasting pipeline.Comment: 67 pages, 12 figure

The Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX): overview and preliminary results

While the demand for enhancing rainfall through cloud seeding is strong and persistent in the country, considerable uncertainty exists on the success of such an endeavour at a given location. To understand the pathways of aerosol-cloud interaction through which this might be achieved, a national experiment named Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) in two phases, was carried out. The rationale of CAIPEEX, the strategy for conducting the experiment, data quality and potential for path-breaking science are described in this article. Pending completion of quality control and calibration of the CAIPEEX phase-II data, here we present some initial results of CAIPEEX phase-I aimed at documenting the prevailing microphysical characteristics of aerosols and clouds and associated environmental conditions over different regions of the country and under different monsoon conditions with the help of an instrumented research aircraft. First-time simultaneous observations of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) over the Ganges Valley during monsoon season show very high concentrations (> 1000 cm-3) of CCN at elevated layers. Observations of elevated layers with high aerosol concentration over the Gangetic valley extending up to 6 km and relatively less aerosol concentration in the boundary layer are also documented. We also present evidence of strong cloud- aerosol interaction in the moist environments with an increase in the cloud droplet effective radius. Our observations also show that pollution increases CDNC and the warm rain depth, and delays its initiation. The critical effective radius for warm rain initiation is found to be between 10 and 12 µm in the polluted clouds and it is between 12 and 14 µm in cleaner monsoon clouds

Ultra-Sensitivity Glucose Sensor Based on Field Emitters

A new glucose sensor based on field emitter of ZnO nanorod arrays (ZNA) was fabricated. This new type of ZNA field emitter-based sensor shows high sensitivity with experimental limit of detection of 1 nM glucose solution and a detection range from 1 nM to 50 μM in air at room temperature, which is lower than that of glucose sensors based on surface plasmon resonance spectroscopy, fluorescence signal transmission, and electrochemical signal transduction. The new glucose sensor provides a key technique for promising consuming application in biological system for detecting low levels of glucose on single cells or bacterial cultures

Maternal and perinatal outcomes after bariatric surgery: a spanish multicenter study

The final publication is avaliable at Springer Link[Abstract] Background. Bariatric surgery (BS) has become more frequent among women of child-bearing age. Data regarding the underlying maternal and perinatal risks are scarce. The objective of this nationwide study is to evaluate maternal and perinatal outcomes after BS. Methods. We performed a retrospective observational study of 168 pregnancies in 112 women who underwent BS in 10 tertiary hospitals in Spain over a 15-year period. Maternal and perinatal outcomes, including gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), pregnancy-associated hypertensive disorders (PAHD), pre-term birth cesarean deliveries, small and large for gestational age births (SGA, LGA), still births, and neonatal deaths, were evaluated. Results were further compared according to the type of BS performed: restrictive techniques (vertical-banded gastroplasty, sleeve gastrectomy, and gastric banding), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and biliopancreatic diversion (BPD). Results. GDM occurred in five (3 %) pregnancies and there were no cases of PAHD. Women whose pregnancies occurred before 1 year after BS had a higher pre-gestational body mass index (BMI) than those who got pregnant 1 year after BS (34.6 ± 7.7 vs 30.4 ± 5.3 kg/m2, p = 0.007). In pregnancies occurring during the first year after BS, a higher rate of stillbirths was observed compared to pregnancies occurring after this period of time (35.5 vs 16.8 %, p = 0.03). Women who underwent BPD delivered a higher rate of SGA babies than women with RYGB or restrictive procedures (34.8, 12.7, and 8.3 %, respectively). Conclusions. Pregnancy should be scheduled at least 1 year after BS. Malabsorptive procedures are associated to a higher rate of SGA births

The cloud aerosol interaction and precipitation enhancement experiment (CAIPEEX): Overview and preliminary results

While the demand for enhancing rainfall through cloud seeding is strong and persistent in the country, considerable uncertainty exists on the success of such an endeavour at a given location. To understand the pathways of aerosol-cloud interaction through which this might be achieved, a national experiment named Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) in two phases, was carried out. The rationale of CAIPEEX, the strategy for conducting the experiment, data quality and potential for path-breaking science are described in this article. Pending completion of quality control and calibration of the CAIPEEX phase-II data, here we present some initial results of CAIPEEX phase-I aimed at documenting the prevailing microphysical characteristics of aerosols and clouds and associated environmental conditions over different regions of the country and under different monsoon conditions with the help of an instrumented research aircraft. First-time simultaneous observations of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) over the Ganges Valley during monsoon season show very high concentrations (> 1000 cm-3) of CCN at elevated layers. Observations of elevated layers with high aerosol concentration over the Gangetic valley extending up to 6 km and relatively less aerosol concentration in the boundary layer are also documented. We also present evidence of strong cloud- aerosol interaction in the moist environments with an increase in the cloud droplet effective radius. Our observations also show that pollution increases CDNC and the warm rain depth, and delays its initiation. The critical effective radius for warm rain initiation is found to be between 10 and 12 μm in the polluted clouds and it is between 12 and 14 μm in cleaner monsoon clouds

Development and evaluation of real time RT-PCR assays for detection and typing of Bluetongue virus

Bluetongue virus is the type species of the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. Bluetongue viruses (BTV) are transmitted between their vertebrate hosts primarily by biting midges (Culicoides spp.) in which they also replicate. Consequently BTV distribution is dependent on the activity, geographic distribution, and seasonal abundance of Culicoides spp. The virus can also be transmitted vertically in vertebrate hosts, and some strains/serotypes can be transmitted horizontally in the absence of insect vectors. The BTV genome is composed of ten linear segments of double-stranded (ds) RNA, numbered in order of decreasing size (Seg-1 to Seg-10). Genome segment 2 (Seg-2) encodes outer-capsid protein VP2, the most variable BTV protein and the primary target for neutralising antibodies. Consequently VP2 (and Seg-2) determine the identity of the twenty seven serotypes and two additional putative BTV serotypes that have been recognised so far. Current BTV vaccines are serotype specific and typing of outbreak strains is required in order to deploy appropriate vaccines. We report development and evaluation of multiple ‘TaqMan’ fluorescence-probe based quantitative real-time type-specific RT-PCR assays targeting Seg-2 of the 27+1 BTV types. The assays were evaluated using orbivirus isolates from the ‘Orbivirus Reference Collection’ (ORC) held at The Pirbright Institute. The assays are BTV-type specific and can be used for rapid, sensitive and reliable detection / identification (typing) of BTV RNA from samples of infected blood, tissues, homogenised Culicoides, or tissue culture supernatants. None of the assays amplified cDNAs from closely related but heterologous orbiviruses, or from uninfected host animals or cell cultures

Global overview of the management of acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic (CHOLECOVID study)

Background: This study provides a global overview of the management of patients with acute cholecystitis during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: CHOLECOVID is an international, multicentre, observational comparative study of patients admitted to hospital with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on management were collected for a 2-month study interval coincident with the WHO declaration of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and compared with an equivalent pre-pandemic time interval. Mediation analysis examined the influence of SARS-COV-2 infection on 30-day mortality. Results: This study collected data on 9783 patients with acute cholecystitis admitted to 247 hospitals across the world. The pandemic was associated with reduced availability of surgical workforce and operating facilities globally, a significant shift to worse severity of disease, and increased use of conservative management. There was a reduction (both absolute and proportionate) in the number of patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 3095 patients (56.2 per cent) pre-pandemic to 1998 patients (46.2 per cent) during the pandemic but there was no difference in 30-day all-cause mortality after cholecystectomy comparing the pre-pandemic interval with the pandemic (13 patients (0.4 per cent) pre-pandemic to 13 patients (0.6 per cent) pandemic; P = 0.355). In mediation analysis, an admission with acute cholecystitis during the pandemic was associated with a non-significant increased risk of death (OR 1.29, 95 per cent c.i. 0.93 to 1.79, P = 0.121). Conclusion: CHOLECOVID provides a unique overview of the treatment of patients with cholecystitis across the globe during the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The study highlights the need for system resilience in retention of elective surgical activity. Cholecystectomy was associated with a low risk of mortality and deferral of treatment results in an increase in avoidable morbidity that represents the non-COVID cost of this pandemic

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks