Water resources management using the WRF-Hydro modelling system: Case-study of the Tono dam in West Africa

Water resources are a major source of economic development for most West African (WA) countries. There is, however inadequate information on these resources for the purposes of planning, decision-making and management. This paper explores the potential for using a state of the art hydrological model (WRF-Hydro) in a fully coupled (i.e. land surface hydrology-atmosphere) mode to assess these water resources, particularly the Tono basin in Ghana. WRF-Hydro model is an enhanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) which allows simulating river discharge. A 2-domain configuration is chosen: an outer domain at 25 km horizontal resolution encompassing the West African Region and an inner domain at 5 km horizontal resolution centered on the Tono basin. The infiltration partition parameter and Manning’s roughness parameter were calibrated to fit the WRF-Hydro simulated discharge with the observed data. The simulations were done from 1999 to 2003, using 1999 as a spin-up period. The results were compared with TRMM precipitation, CRU temperature and available observed hydrological data. The WRF-Hydro model captured the attributes of the “observed” streamflow estimate; with Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) of 0.78 and Pearson’s correlation of 0.89. Further validation of model results is based on using the output from the WRF-Hydro model as input into a water balance model to simulate the dam levels. WRF-Hydro has shown the potential for use in water resource planning (i.e. with respect to streamflow and dam level estimation). However, the model requires further improvement with respect to calibration of model parameters (e.g. baseflow and saturated hydraulic conductivity) considering the effect of the accumulation of model bias in dam level estimation

Bulk genetic characterization of Ghanaian maize landraces using microsatellite markers

Maize (Zea mays L) was first introduced into Ghana over five centuries ago and remains the most important cereal staple, grown in all agro-ecologies across the country. Yield from farmers’ fields are low, which is attributed in part to farmer’s preferences and/or reliance on local landraces for cultivation. Efforts are underway to improve some of these landraces for improved productivity. Seeds of maize landraces cultivated in all agro-ecologies were col¬lected for genetic characterization using a bulked fingerprinting technique and 20 SSR markers. In all, 20 popula¬tions of 15 plants each from Ghana and 4 control populations from Latin America were characterized. The cluster analysis grouped the 20 landraces into two major groups corresponding to the vegetation/climatic conditions of the north and south of the country. Genotypes from Ashanti, which is centrally located, fell into both major clus¬ters, which suggest its importance in maize seed distribution in Ghana and also the diverse climate/vegetation. A Structure analyses grouped the genotypes into two major clusters similar to the UPGMA cluster, and populations were not fully distinct according to F statistics. The results suggest that breeders should make performance data available to seed dealers for better productivity

High degree of prostate related LUTS in a prospective cross-sectional community study in Ghana (Mamprobi)

BACKGROUND: Changing voiding patterns, volume and frequency, may sometimes be mistaken for anxiety, stress or increase in fluid consumption. In the aging male population, the commencement of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) may be silent and perceived as "normal" and unrelated to Benign prostatic enlargement (BPE). The purpose of the study was to determine the prevalence of apparently "silent LUTS" (perceived asymptomatic LUTS) in men in a Ghanaian Community as well as its underlying risk factors. METHODS: One hundred and eleven (111) men (40-70 years) were recruited from a community in Ghana. The International Prostate Symptoms Score (IPSS) questionnaire (administered in the local language and English) and ultrasonographic imaging of the prostate volume (PV) were utlized to collect data. IPSS score >7 plus PV > 30 cm3 was definitive of lower urinary tract symptoms. Eighty-one (81) participants were classified "LUTS Negative" (LN) and 30, "LUTS Positive" (LP). Risk factors i.e., cholesterol (CHOL), triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL), coronary risk (CR), BMI and Blood Pressure were also determined. RESULTS: The prevalence of LUTS using only IPSS definition alone was 42.3%. However, IPSS in combination with Prostate Volume gave a prevalence of 27.0%. LN subjects had enlarged prostate (41.98%) and LP, 100%. Quality of life (QoL) was better in the LUTS Negative than LUTS Positive group (p < 0.001). In the univariant analysis coronary risk, triglyceride and VLDL contributed to LUTS (p = 0.023, 0.22, 0.22, respectively). In a multivariant analysis HDL-C (p = 0.027), BMI (p = 0.047) and triglyceride (p = 0.019) significantly contributed to LUTS. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LUTS (42.3%) is high. Components of Metabolic Syndrome- HDL-C, BMI, and coronary risk were associated with LUTS. This emphasizes the need for community education

SURVEY OF PLANT PARASITIC NEMATODES AND DISEASE SEVERITY OF COMMON BEAN LINES EVALUATED FOR REACTION TO ROOT KNOT NEMATODES INFESTATION

Plant parasitic nematodes are important pests in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to identify the occurrence of nematodes associated with common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and evaluate breeding lines for their reaction to Meloidogyne spp. in Ghana. Common bean rhizosphere soil was sampled and processed using Modified Baermann Tray method. Five nematode genera, namely Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus , Rotylenchulus , Helicotylenchus and Trichodorus were extracted. The first four genera listed above were prevalent across locations, with Trichodorus present in 30% of the fields sampled. The highest nematode population density of 319 juveniles per 200 cubic centimeter of soil was recorded for Meloidogyne spp. compared to 45 juveniles per 200 cubic centimeter, for Trichodorus. Twelve breeding lines were evaluated by inoculating roots of two-weeks-old plants with 2000 infective-stage juveniles of Meloidogyne sp. Reactions of test lines to Meloidogyne sp. infection were assessed by determining the number of egg masses and galling index (GI) on roots. Reproduction index (RI) was used to classify test lines as resistant or susceptible. Significant differences (P &lt; 0.05) were observed in the number of eggs, GI and RI among lines tested. No resistant line was identified; however, lines SEF 47, BFS 35 and BFS 60 were moderately resistant, with RI of 13.1, 17.4 and 23.7%, respectively. Line SEF 60, although classified as slightly resistant, recorded a 100 seed weight of 26.0 g, which was 60% higher than line SEF 53 with seed weight of 16.2 g. Moderately resistant common bean lines identified could be used in common bean improvement programmes to develop elite cultivars tolerant to root knot nematodes.Les n\ue9matodes phytoparasites sont des ravageurs importants dans la production agricole. L\u2019objectif de cette \ue9tude \ue9tait d\u2019identifier la pr\ue9sence de n\ue9matodes associ\ue9s au haricot commun (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) et d\u2019\ue9valuer les lign\ue9es g\ue9n\ue9alogiques pour leur r\ue9action \ue0 Meloidogyne spp. au Ghana. Le sol de la rhizosph\ue8re du haricot commun a \ue9t\ue9 \ue9chantillonn\ue9 et trait\ue9 \ue0 l\u2019aide de la m\ue9thode du plateau de Baermann modifi\ue9. Cinq genres de n\ue9matodes, \ue0 savoir Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Rotylenchulus, Helicotylenchus et Trichodorus ont \ue9t\ue9 extraits. Les quatre premiers genres \ue9num\ue9r\ue9s ci-dessus \ue9taient r\ue9pandus dans tous les emplacements, avec Trichodorus pr\ue9sent dans 30% des champs \ue9chantillonn\ue9s. La densit\ue9 de population de n\ue9matodes la plus \ue9lev\ue9e de 319 juv\ue9niles par 200/cm3 de sol a \ue9t\ue9 enregistr\ue9e pour Meloidogyne spp. contre 45 juv\ue9niles par 200/cm3 pour Trichodorus. Douze lign\ue9es ont \ue9t\ue9 \ue9valu\ue9es en inoculant les racines de plantes \ue2g\ue9es de deux semaines avec 2000 juv\ue9niles au stade infectieux de Meloidogyne sp. R\ue9actions des lign\ue9es de test \ue0 Meloidogyne sp. l\u2019infection ont \ue9t\ue9 \ue9valu\ue9es en d\ue9terminant le nombre de masse d\u2019\u153ufs et l\u2019indice de galle (IG) sur les racines. L\u2019indice de reproduction (RI) a \ue9t\ue9 utilis\ue9 pour classer les lign\ue9es de test comme r\ue9sistantes ou sensibles. Des diff\ue9rences significatives (P &lt; 0,05) ont \ue9t\ue9 observ\ue9es dans le nombre d\u2019\u153ufs, GI et RI parmi les lign\ue9es test\ue9es. Aucune lign\ue9e r\ue9sistante n\u2019a \ue9t\ue9 identifi\ue9e ; cependant, les lign\ue9es SEF 47, BFS 35 et BFS 60 \ue9taient mod\ue9r\ue9ment r\ue9sistantes, avec un RI de 13,1, 17,4 et 23,7 %, respectivement. La lign\ue9e SEF 60, bien que class\ue9e comme l\ue9g\ue8rement r\ue9sistante, a enregistr\ue9 un poids de 100 graines de 26,0 g, soit 60 % de plus que la lign\ue9e SEF 53 avec un poids de graines de 16,2 g. Les lign\ue9es de haricot commun mod\ue9r\ue9ment r\ue9sistantes identifi\ue9es pourraient \ueatre utilis\ue9es dans les programmes d\u2019am\ue9lioration du haricot commun pour d\ue9velopper des cultivars d\u2019\ue9lite tol\ue9rants aux n\ue9matodes \ue0 galles

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication