Toward fulfilling the aspirational goal of science as self-correcting: A call for editorial courage and diligence for error correction

Science is often described as ‘self-correcting’. Correction of scientific errors is vital, but it does not occur spontaneously. Rather, correction depends on individual scientists behaving in accordance with the self-correction norm. Some authors have suggested that failure to correct certain errors be considered scientific misconduct. But when serious errors are found, our experience suggests that corrections are not always expeditious, thorough, clear, and open. Herein, we address journals’ distinctive roles in correcting peer-reviewed scientific literature. The scientific community needs key individuals, including journal editors, to facilitate the correction process and to adjudicate disagreements in the field

Improving open and rigorous science: Ten key future research opportunities related to rigor, reproducibility, and transparency in scientific research

Background: As part of a coordinated effort to expand research activity around rigor, reproducibility, and transparency (RRT) across scientific disciplines, a team of investigators at the Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington hosted a workshop in October 2019 with international leaders to discuss key opportunities for RRT research. Objective: The workshop aimed to identify research priorities and opportunities related to RRT. Design: Over two-days, workshop attendees gave presentations and participated in three working groups: (1) Improving Education & Training in RRT, (2) Reducing Statistical Errors and Increasing Analytic Transparency, and (3) Looking Outward: Increasing Truthfulness and Accuracy of Research Communications. Following small-group discussions, the working groups presented their findings, and participants discussed the research opportunities identified. The investigators compiled a list of research priorities, which were circulated to all participants for feedback. Results: Participants identified the following priority research questions: (1) Can RRT-focused statistics and mathematical modeling courses improve statistics practice?; (2) Can specialized training in scientific writing improve transparency?; (3) Does modality (e.g. face to face, online) affect the efficacy RRT-related education?; (4) How can automated programs help identify errors more efficiently?; (5) What is the prevalence and impact of errors in scientific publications (e.g., analytic inconsistencies, statistical errors, and other objective errors)?; (6) Do error prevention workflows reduce errors?; (7) How do we encourage post-publication error correction?; (8) How does 'spin' in research communication affect stakeholder understanding and use of research evidence?; (9) Do tools to aid writing research reports increase comprehensiveness and clarity of research reports?; and (10) Is it possible to inculcate scientific values and norms related to truthful, rigorous, accurate, and comprehensive scientific reporting? Conclusion: Participants identified important and relatively unexplored questions related to improving RRT. This list may be useful to the scientific community and investigators seeking to advance meta-science (i.e. research on research)

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Adsorption of mono- and multivalent cat- and anions on DNA molecules

Adsorption of monovalent and multivalent cat- and anions on a deoxyribose nucleic acid (DNA) molecule from a salt solution is investigated by computer simulation. The ions are modelled as charged hard spheres, the DNA molecule as a point charge pattern following the double-helical phosphate strands. The geometrical shape of the DNA molecules is modelled on different levels ranging from a simple cylindrical shape to structured models which include the major and minor grooves between the phosphate strands. The densities of the ions adsorbed on the phosphate strands, in the major and in the minor grooves are calculated. First, we find that the adsorption pattern on the DNA surface depends strongly on its geometrical shape: counterions adsorb preferentially along the phosphate strands for a cylindrical model shape, but in the minor groove for a geometrically structured model. Second, we find that an addition of monovalent salt ions results in an increase of the charge density in the minor groove while the total charge density of ions adsorbed in the major groove stays unchanged. The adsorbed ion densities are highly structured along the minor groove while they are almost smeared along the major groove. Furthermore, for a fixed amount of added salt, the major groove cationic charge is independent on the counterion valency. For increasing salt concentration the major groove is neutralized while the total charge adsorbed in the minor groove is constant. DNA overcharging is detected for multivalent salt. Simulations for a larger ion radii, which mimic the effect of the ion hydration, indicate an increased adsorbtion of cations in the major groove.Comment: 34 pages with 14 figure

Childhood obesity intervention studies: A narrative review and guide for investigators, authors, editors, reviewers, journalists, and readers to guard against exaggerated effectiveness claims

Being able to draw accurate conclusions from childhood obesity trials is important to make advances in reversing the obesity epidemic. However, obesity research sometimes is not conducted or reported to appropriate scientific standards. To constructively draw attention to this issue, we present 10 errors that are commonly committed, illustrate each error with examples from the childhood obesity literature, and follow with suggestions on how to avoid these errors. These errors are as follows: using self-reported outcomes and teaching to the test; foregoing control groups and risking regression to the mean creating differences over time; changing the goal posts; ignoring clustering in studies that randomize groups of children; following the forking paths, subsetting, p-hacking, and data dredging; basing conclusions on tests for significant differences from baseline; equating “no statistically significant difference” with “equally effective”; ignoring intervention study results in favor of observational analyses; using one-sided testing for statistical significance; and stating that effects are clinically significant even though they are not statistically significant. We hope that compiling these errors in one article will serve as the beginning of a checklist to support fidelity in conducting, analyzing, and reporting childhood obesity research

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{$6\times 10^{19}$eV}. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than $3.1^\circ$ from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron $12^{\rm th}$ catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is $(38^{+7}_{-6})$, compared with $21$ expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of $(69^{+11}_{-13})$. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201