Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high bodymass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries

Optimal Model for Path Loss Predictions using Feed-Forward Neural Networks

[EN] In this paper, an optimal model is developed for path loss predictions using the Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) algorithm. Drive test measurements were carried out in Canaanland Ota, Nigeria and Ilorin, Nigeria to obtain path loss data at varying distances from 11 different 1,800 MHz base station transmitters. Single-layered FFNNs were trained with normalized terrain profile data (longitude, latitude, elevation, altitude, clutter height) and normalized distances to produce the corresponding path loss values based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The number of neurons in the hidden layer was varied (1-50) to determine the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with the best prediction accuracy. The performance of the ANN models was evaluated based on different metrics: Mean Absolute error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), standard deviation, and regression coefficient (R). Results of the machine learning processes show that the FNN architecture adopting a tangent activation function and 48 hidden neurons produced the least prediction error, with MAE, MSE, RMSE, standard deviation, and R values of 4.21 dB, 30.99 dB, 5.56 dB, 5.56 dB, and 0.89, respectively. Regarding generalization ability, the predictions of the optimal ANN model yielded MAE, MSE, RMSE, standard deviation, and R values of 4.74 dB, 39.38 dB, 6.27 dB, 6.27 dB, and 0.86, respectively, when tested with new data not previously included in the training process. Compared to the Hata, COST 231, ECC-33, and Egli models, the developed ANN model performed better in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization ability.This work was supported by Covenant University [grant number CUCRID-SMARTCU-000343].Popoola, SI.; Adetiba, E.; Atayero, AA.; Faruk, N.; Tavares De Araujo Cesariny Calafate, CM. (2018). Optimal Model for Path Loss Predictions using Feed-Forward Neural Networks. 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Applicability evaluation of Okumura, Ericsson 9999 and winner propagation models for coverage planning in 3.5 GHZ WiMAX systems.Erceg, V., Greenstein, L. J., Tjandra, S. Y., Parkoff, S. R., Gupta, A., Kulic, B., … Bianchi, R. (1999). An empirically based path loss model for wireless channels in suburban environments. IEEE Journal on Selected Areas in Communications, 17(7), 1205-1211. doi:10.1109/49.778178Farhoud, M., El-Keyi, A., & Sultan, A. (2013). Empirical correction of the Okumura-Hata model for the 900 MHz band in Egypt. 2013 Third International Conference on Communications and Information Technology (ICCIT). doi:10.1109/iccitechnology.2013.6579585Faruk, N., Adediran, Y. A., & Ayeni, A. A. (2013). Error bounds of empirical path loss models at VHF/UHF bands in Kwara State, Nigeria. Eurocon 2013. doi:10.1109/eurocon.2013.6625043Faruk, N., Ayeni, A., & Adediran, Y. A. (2013). ON THE STUDY OF EMPIRICAL PATH LOSS MODELS FOR ACCURATE PREDICTION OF TV SIGNAL FOR SECONDARY USERS. 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(2017, July 5–7). C-BRIG: A network architecture for real-time information exchange in smart and connected campuses. In Lecture notes in engineering and computer science: Proceedings of the world congress on engineering 2017 (pp. 398–401). London.Medeisis, A., & Kajackas, A. (s. f.). On the use of the universal Okumura-Hata propagation prediction model in rural areas. VTC2000-Spring. 2000 IEEE 51st Vehicular Technology Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37026). doi:10.1109/vetecs.2000.851585Mohtashami, V., & Shishegar, A. A. (2012). Modified wavefront decomposition method for fast and accurate ray-tracing simulation. IET Microwaves, Antennas & Propagation, 6(3), 295. doi:10.1049/iet-map.2011.0264Nimavat, V. D., & Kulkarni, G. (2012). Simulation and performance evaluation of GSM propagation channel under the urban, suburban and rural environments.Paper presented at the communication, information & computing technology (ICCICT), 2012 international conference on.. O. F. O. (2014). RADIO FREQUENCY OPTIMIZATION OF MOBILE NETWORKS IN ABEOKUTA, NIGERIA FOR IMPROVED QUALITY OF SERVICE. International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology, 03(08), 174-180. doi:10.15623/ijret.2014.0308027Phillips, C., Sicker, D., & Grunwald, D. (2013). A Survey of Wireless Path Loss Prediction and Coverage Mapping Methods. IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials, 15(1), 255-270. doi:10.1109/surv.2012.022412.00172Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., Badejo, J. A., John, T. M., Odukoya, J. A., & Omole, D. O. (2018). Learning analytics for smart campus: Data on academic performances of engineering undergraduates in Nigerian private university. Data in Brief, 17, 76-94. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.059Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., & Faruk, N. (2018). Received signal strength and local terrain profile data for radio network planning and optimization at GSM frequency bands. Data in Brief, 16, 972-981. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.036Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., Faruk, N., & Badejo, J. A. (2018). Data on the key performance indicators for quality of service of GSM networks in Nigeria. Data in Brief, 16, 914-928. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2017.12.005Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., Faruk, N., Calafate, C. T., Adetiba, E., & Matthews, V. O. (2017, July 5–7). Calibrating the standard path loss model for urban environments using field measurements and geospatial data.Paper presented at the Lecture notes in engineering and computer science: Proceedings of the world congress on engineering 2017 (pp. 513–518). London.Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., Faruk, N., Calafate, C. T., Olawoyin, L. A., & Matthews, V. O. (2017). Standard propagation model tuning for path loss predictions in built-up environments.Paper presented at the International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications.Popoola, S. I., Atayero, A. A., Okanlawon, T. T., Omopariola, B. I., & Takpor, O. A. (2018). Smart campus: Data on energy consumption in an ICT-driven university. 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Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children <18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p<0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p<0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p<0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

Reasons for non-recruitment of eligible patients to a randomised controlled trial of secondary prevention after intracerebral haemorrhage: observational study.

Recruitment to randomised prevention trials is challenging, not least for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) associated with antithrombotic drug use. We investigated reasons for not recruiting apparently eligible patients at hospital sites that keep screening logs in the ongoing REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART), which seeks to determine whether to start antiplatelet drugs after ICH.EDGE project number 14013British Heart Foundation Special Project (SP/12/2/29422) & Project (PG/14/50/30891) fundin

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Review and publication of protocol submissions to Trials - what have we learned in 10 years?

Abstract Trials has 10 years of experience in providing open access publication of protocols for randomised controlled trials. In this editorial, the senior editors and editors-in-chief of Trials discuss editorial issues regarding managing trial protocol submissions, including the content and format of the protocol, timing of submission, approaches to tracking protocol amendments, and the purpose of peer reviewing a protocol submission. With the clarification and guidance provided, we hope we can make the process of publishing trial protocols more efficient and useful to trial investigators and readers

Effects of anthropogenic activities on the heavy metal levels in the clams and sediments in a tropical river

The present study aimed to assess the effects of anthropogenic activities on the heavy metal levels in the Langat River by transplantation of Corbicula javanica. In addition, potential ecological risk indexes (PERI) of heavy metals in the surface sediments of the river were also investigated. The correlation analysis revealed that eight metals (As, Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in total soft tissue (TST) while five metals (As, Cd, Cr, Fe and Mn) in shell have positively and significantly correlation with respective metal concentration in sediment, indicating the clams is a good biomonitor of the metal levels. Based on clustering patterns, the discharge of dam impoundment, agricultural activities and urban domestic waste were identified as three major contributors of the metals in Pangsun, Semenyih and Dusun Tua, and Kajang, respectively. Various geochemical indexes for a single metal pollutant (geoaccumulation index (I geo), enrichment factors (EF), contamination factor (C f) and ecological risk (Er)) all agreed that Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni and Zn are not likely to cause adverse effect to the river ecosystem, but As and Pb could pose a potential ecological risk to the river ecosystem. All indexes (degree of contamination (C d), combined pollution index (CPI) and PERI) showed that overall metal concentrations in the tropical river are still within safe limit. River metal pollution was investigated. Anthropogenic activities were contributors of the metal pollution. Geochemical indexes showed that metals are within the safe limit