An assessment of the screening method to evaluate vaccine effectiveness: the case of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the United States.

The screening method, which employs readily available data, is an inexpensive and quick means of estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE). We compared estimates of effectiveness of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) using the screening and case-control methods. Cases were children aged 19-35 months with pneumococcus isolated from normally sterile sites residing in Active Bacterial Core surveillance areas in the United States. Case-control VE was estimated for 2001-2004 by comparing the odds of vaccination among cases and community controls. Screening-method VE for 2001-2009 was estimated by comparing the proportion of cases vaccinated to National Immunization Survey-derived coverage among the general population. To evaluate the plausibility of screening-method VE findings, we estimated attack rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. We identified 1,154 children with IPD. Annual population PCV7 coverage with ≥1 dose increased from 38% to 97%. Case-control VE for ≥1 dose was estimated as 75% against all-serotype IPD (annual range: 35-83%) and 91% for PCV7-type IPD (annual range: 65-100%). By the screening method, the overall VE was 86% for ≥1 dose (annual range: -240-70%) against all-serotype IPD and 94% (annual range: 62-97%) against PCV7-type IPD. As cases of PCV7-type IPD declined during 2001-2005, estimated attack rates for all-serotype IPD among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals became less consistent than what would be expected with the estimated effectiveness of PCV7. The screening method yields estimates of VE that are highly dependent on the time period during which it is used and the choice of outcome. The method should be used cautiously to evaluate VE of PCVs

Monetary and fiscal policies for a finite planet

Current macroeconomic policy promotes continuous economic growth. Unemployment, poverty and debt are associated with insufficient growth. Economic activity depends upon the transformation of natural materials, ultimately returning to the environment as waste. Current levels of economic throughput exceed the planet\u27s carrying capacity. As a result of poorly constructed economic institutions, society faces the unacceptable choice between ecological catastrophe and human misery. A transition to a steady-state economy is required, characterized by a rate of throughput compatible with planetary boundaries. This paper contributes to the development of a steady-state economy by addressing US monetary and fiscal policies. A steady-state monetary policy would support counter-cyclical, debt-free vertical money creation through the public sector, in ways that contribute to sustainable well-being. The implication for a steady-state fiscal policy is that any lending or spending requires a careful balance of recovery of money, not as a means of revenue, but as an economic imperative to meet monetary policy goals. A steady-state fiscal policy would prioritize targeted public goods investments, taxation of ecological bads and economic rent and implementation of progressive tax structures. Institutional innovations are considered, including common asset trusts, to regulate throughput, and a public monetary trust, to strictly regulate money supply

Timing of Disease Occurrence and Hepatic Resection on Long-Term Outcome of Patients with Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis

Background and objectives: The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of timing of disease occurrence and hepatic resection on long-term outcome of neuroendocrine liver metastasis (NELM). Methods: A total of 420 patients undergoing curative-intent resection for NELM were identified from a multi-institutional database. Date of primary resection, NELM detection and resection, intraoperative details, disease-specific (DSS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were obtained. Results: A total of 243 (57.9%) patients had synchronous NELM, while 177 (42.1%) developed metachronous NELM. On propensity score matching (PSM), patients with synchronous versus metachronous NELM had comparable DSS (10-year DSS, 76.2% vs 85.9%, P = 0.105), yet a worse RFS (10-year RFS, 34.1% vs 59.8%, P = 0.008). DSS and RFS were comparable regardless of operative approach (simultaneous vs staged, both P > 0.1). Among patients who developed metachronous NELM, no difference in long-term outcomes were identified between early (≤2 years, n = 102, 57.6%) and late (>2 years, n = 68, 42.4%) disease on PSM (both P > 0.1). Conclusions: Patients with synchronous NELM had a higher risk of tumor recurrence after hepatic resection versus patients with metachronous disease. The time to development of metachronous NELM did not affect long-term outcome. Curative-intent hepatic resection should be considered for patients who develop NELM regardless of the timing of disease presentation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Matter-Antimatter Asymmetry - Aspects at Low Energy

The apparent dominance of matter over antimatter in our universe is an obvious and puzzling fact which cannot be adequately explained in present physical frameworks that assume matter-antimatter symmetry at the big bang. However, our present knowledge of starting conditions and of known sources of CP violation are both insufficient to explain the observed asymmetry. Therefore ongoing research on matter-antimatter differences is strongly motivated as well as attempts to identify viable new mechanisms that could create the present asymmetry. Here we concentrate on possible precision experiments at low energies towards a resolution of this puzzle.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure; accepted for publication in Annalen der Physik (2015

Putting virtual worlds to work to support improved climate risk decision-making on real world farms

Climate variability represents a significant risk to farming enterprises. Effective communication and extension of climate information may improve climate risk decision making and adaptive management responses to climate variability on farms. However, extension services are under strain worldwide due to cost and time constraints. Innovative applications of emerging digital technologies are likely to play an increasingly important role in this space. Evaluation of stakeholder responses to new web-based virtual world ‘discussion-support’ tools (short scripted video clips or machinima filmed in Second Life) indicate that they may provide a potentially revolutionary way to present and cost-effectively disseminate consistent and highly targeted information about climate, climate risk and climate risk adaptation to large numbers of farmers. Leveraging the social and observational learning aspects of farming, these tools also incorporate and apply recent advances in the use of digital technologies in education. With contextualised settings and relevant and engaging storylines, the tools model discussions between farmers about climate information, risk and on-farm practices. Follow up discussion among real life farming groups and farming families, stimulated by the tools, will potentially assist farmers to make better on-farm decisions to manage climate risk which, in turn, will support sustainable food and fibre production systems and reduce environmental harm. Prototype machinimas were developed for and trialled in the Australian sugar cane farming industry (Fig. 1). This industry is located in coastal regions of north-eastern Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales) which experience high levels of climatic variability ranging from drought to intense rainfall events associated with tropical lows and cyclones. Improved access to targeted climate information, better understanding of climate risk and adaptation through adoption of recommended farm management best practice have been a key focus of sugar industry extension programs, In the sugar industry, as in other agricultural sectors, farmer participation in conventional face-to-face workshops, though effective in influencing adoption rates, is limited and likely to become more so as resources supporting extension services diminish. At the same time, online dissemination of technical information, though far-reaching, is often ineffective. Even the development of high-level decision support tools has seen only limited uptake among farmers. It is generally recognised within extension circles that the key to farmer engagement is through participatory processes and relevant discussion. The discussion support machinimas developed in this project deal with specific scenarios within the sugar cane farming calendar: specifically, irrigation; fertiliser application; harvesting; and planning. Evaluation of the machinimas was conducted, firstly, through a series of climate workshops where the tools were used to generate discussion of climate risk associated with each of these situations. These workshops were followed up with a phenomenographic study in which selected participants were interviewed about their response to the machinimas and transcripts were then analysed thematically. This study was designed to investigate the value of these tools in stimulating discussion about climate risk and adaptation within a farmer group and, subsequently, farming families. Secondly, the machinimas and an on-line survey questionnaire were posted to the website of the sugar cane farming peak body, CANEGROWERS Australia, whose membership numbers approximately 4,000 cane farmers. This survey was designed to investigate both farmer responses to the tools and the effectiveness of the tools, when disseminated electronically, in stimulating discussion and potentially influencing on farm decision making. Results suggest that these virtual world tools positively engage farmers and, while not replacing face-to-face extension, provide cost-effective support for climate risk decision making on Australian sugar cane farms. Future development of the machinimas will enable rapid updates of relevant seasonal climate information to farmer groups to ensure access to the best available information as a basis for discussion and decision making. Increasing capacity to deliver such tools online, given expanding access to the internet and uptake of mobile technologies, also suggests potential to digitally engage large numbers of farmers globally. The virtual world platform in which the machinimas are made allows ready contextualisation of climate risk information for a target audience through customised representations of landscapes, farming systems, characters (avatars) and scripted dialogues that reflect the real life experiences of farmers, wherever they are. Discussion is a key element of social learning. By modelling conversations and stimulating further discussion, these tools may assist in providing cost-effective targeted support for learning and on-farm decision making, thereby enhancing the adaptive capacity of farmers and the development of more sustainable food production systems

Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model

As humanity is becoming increasingly confronted by Earth's finite biophysical limits, there is increasing interest in questions about the stability and equitability of a zero-growth capitalist economy, most notably: if one maintains a positive interest rate for loans, can a zero-growth economy be stable? This question has been explored on a few different macroeconomic models, and both ‘yes' and ‘no’ answers have been obtained. However, economies can become unstable whether or not there is ongoing underlying growth in productivity with which to sustain growth in output. Here we attempt, for the first time, to assess via a model the relative stability of growth versus no-growth scenarios. The model employed draws from Keen's model of the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. The analysis focuses on dynamics as opposed to equilibrium, and scenarios of growth and no-growth of output (GDP) are obtained by tweaking a productivity growth input parameter. We confirm that, with or without growth, there can be both stable and unstable scenarios. To maintain stability, firms must not change their debt levels or target debt levels too quickly. Further, according to the model, the wages share is higher for zero-growth scenarios, although there are more frequent substantial drops in employment

Electric dipole moments as probes of new physics

We review several aspects of flavour-diagonal CP violation, focussing on the role played by the electric dipole moments (EDMs) of leptons, nucleons, atoms and molecules, which consitute the source of several stringent constraints on new CP-violating physics. We dwell specifically on the calculational aspects of applying the hadronic EDM constraints, reviewing in detail the application of QCD sum-rules to the calculation of nucleon EDMs and CP-odd pion-nucleon couplings. We also consider the current status of EDMs in the Standard Model, and on the ensuing constraints on the underlying sources of CP-violation in physics beyond the Standard Model, focussing on weak-scale supersymmetry.Comment: 62 pages, 10 figures, invited review to appear in Annals of Physics; v2: references adde

An optically multiplexed single-shot time-resolved probe of laser–plasma dynamics

We introduce a new approach to temporally resolve ultrafast micron-scale processes via the use of a multi-channel optical probe. We demonstrate that this technique enables highly precise time-resolved, two-dimensional spatial imaging of intense laser pulse propagation dynamics, plasma formation and laser beam filamentation within a single pulse over four distinct time frames. The design, development and optimization of the optical probe system is presented, as are representative experimental results from the first implementation of the multi-channel probe with a high-power laser pulse interaction with a helium gas jet target

Virtual world technologies to enhance climate risk management on Australian sugar cane farms

Improved climate risk decision-making and management in agriculture is critical to the well-being and long-term sustainability of farming communities and future global food security. Decision-making on farms often makes assumptions about seasonal conditions and weather events over the cropping season. Projected climate change and increasing climate variability are likely to pose increasing challenges to the productivity and profitability of farming systems. Hence, better understanding of climate information may improve farmers' ability to plan for climate risk. Digital technologies offer an important alternative in the delivery and communication of agricultural information, complementing and expanding the reach of conventional face-to-face agricultural extension services, particularly where these are subject to declining levels of investment. Sophisticated digital platforms and their applications in learning environments also offer new opportunities which may influence and significantly enhance agricultural knowledge exchange. This paper reports on a project undertaken by the University of Southern Queensland's Australian Digital Futures Institute and International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences to develop and evaluate a web-based virtual 'discussion-support' system that integrates climate information with practical farming operations in Australian sugar farming systems. Customized video clips (machinima), created in the Second Life virtual world environment, use lifelike avatar actors to model conversations about climate risk and key farm operational decisions relevant to sugarcane farmers. Designed to be readily available online, this innovative approach is designed to provide more equitable and cost-effective access to targeted climate information as well as improved learning and decision-making opportunities at local, regional, national and even global scales

Virtual Discussions to Support Climate Risk Decision Making on Farms

Climate variability represents a significant risk to farming enterprises. Effective extension of climate information may improve climate risk decision making and adaptive management responses to climate variability on farms. This paper briefly reviews current agricultural extension approaches and reports stakeholder responses to new web-based virtual world ‘discussion-support’ tools developed for the Australian sugar cane farming industry. These tools incorporate current climate science and sugar industry better management practices, while leveraging the social-learning aspects of farming, to provide a stimulus for discussion and climate risk decision making. Responses suggest that such virtual world tools may provide effective support for climate risk decision making on Australian sugar cane farms. Increasing capacity to deliver such tools online also suggests potential to engage large numbers of farmers globally