The Ayyubid Orogen: An Ophiolite Obduction-Driven Orogen in the Late Cretaceous of the Neo-Tethyan South Margin

A minimum 5000-km long obduction-driven orogeny of medial to late Cretaceous age is located between Cyrenaica in eastern Libya and Oman. It is herein called the Ayyubid Orogen after the Ayyubid Empire that covered much of its territory. The Ayyubid orogen is distinct from other Alpide orogens and has two main parts: a western, mainly germanotype belt and an eastern mainly alpinotype belt. The germanotype belt formed largely as a result of an aborted obduction, whereas the alpinotype part formed as a result of successful and large-scale obduction events that choked a nascent subduction zone. The mainly germanotype part coincides with Erich Krenkel's Syrian Arc (Syrischer Bogen) and the alpinotype part with Ricou's  Peri-Arabian Ophiolitic Crescent (Croissant Ophiolitique péri-Arabe). These belts formed as a consequence of the interaction of one of the now-vanished Tethyan plates and Afro-Arabia. The Africa-Eurasia relative motion has influenced the orogen's evolution, but was not the main causative agent. Similar large and complex obduction-driven orogens similar to the Ayyubids may exist along the Ordovician Newfoundland/Scotland margin of the Caledonides and along the Ordovician European margin of the Uralides.SOMMAIREEntre la Cyrénaïque dans l'est de la Libye et Oman, se trouve un ceinture orogénique d’au moins 5 000 km de longueur créé par obduction au Crétacé moyen et tardif.  Nous le nommons ici l’orogène ayyoubide d’après l'empire ayyoubide qui couvrait une grande partie de son territoire.  L'orogène ayyoubide qui est distincte des autres orogènes alpides, comporte deux parties principales : une bande occidentale, principalement germanotype, et une bande orientale principalement alpinotype.  La bande germanotype s’est formée en grande partie à la suite d'une obduction avortée, tandis que la partie alpinotype s’est formée par des épisodes d’obduction à grande échelle qui ont étranglé une zone de subduction naissante.  La partie principalement germanotype coïncide avec l’arc syrien d’Erich Krenkel (Syrischer Bogen), alors que la partie alpinotype correspond au croissant ophiolitique péri-Arabe de Ricou (Croissant ophiolitique péri-Arabe).  Ces bandes se sont formées par l'interaction de l'une des plaques de la Téthys, maintenant disparues, avec l’Afro-Arabie.  Le mouvement relatif Afrique-Eurasie a influencé l'évolution de l'orogène, mais ça n’a pas été le principal facteur.  Des orogènes grandes et complexes résultant de mécanismes d’obduction similaires à l’orogène Ayyoubide peuvent exister le long de la marge des Calédonides de l'Ordovicien de Terre-Neuve/Écosse et le long de la marge européenne des Uralides de l'Ordovicien

The Ayyubid Orogen: An Ophiolite Obduction-Driven Orogen in the Late Cretaceous of the Neo-Tethyan South Margin

A minimum 5000-km long obduction-driven orogeny of medial to late Cretaceous age is located between Cyrenaica in eastern Libya and Oman. It is herein called the Ayyubid Orogen after the Ayyubid Empire that covered much of its territory. The Ayyubid orogen is distinct from other Alpide orogens and has two main parts: a western, mainly germanotype belt and an eastern mainly alpinotype belt. The germanotype belt formed largely as a result of an aborted obduction, whereas the alpinotype part formed as a result of successful and large-scale obduction events that choked a nascent subduction zone. The mainly germanotype part coincides with Erich Krenkel's Syrian Arc (Syrischer Bogen) and the alpinotype part with Ricou's  Peri-Arabian Ophiolitic Crescent (Croissant Ophiolitique péri-Arabe). These belts formed as a consequence of the interaction of one of the now-vanished Tethyan plates and Afro-Arabia. The Africa-Eurasia relative motion has influenced the orogen's evolution, but was not the main causative agent. Similar large and complex obduction-driven orogens similar to the Ayyubids may exist along the Ordovician Newfoundland/Scotland margin of the Caledonides and along the Ordovician European margin of the Uralides.SOMMAIREEntre la Cyrénaïque dans l'est de la Libye et Oman, se trouve un ceinture orogénique d’au moins 5 000 km de longueur créé par obduction au Crétacé moyen et tardif.  Nous le nommons ici l’orogène ayyoubide d’après l'empire ayyoubide qui couvrait une grande partie de son territoire.  L'orogène ayyoubide qui est distincte des autres orogènes alpides, comporte deux parties principales : une bande occidentale, principalement germanotype, et une bande orientale principalement alpinotype.  La bande germanotype s’est formée en grande partie à la suite d'une obduction avortée, tandis que la partie alpinotype s’est formée par des épisodes d’obduction à grande échelle qui ont étranglé une zone de subduction naissante.  La partie principalement germanotype coïncide avec l’arc syrien d’Erich Krenkel (Syrischer Bogen), alors que la partie alpinotype correspond au croissant ophiolitique péri-Arabe de Ricou (Croissant ophiolitique péri-Arabe).  Ces bandes se sont formées par l'interaction de l'une des plaques de la Téthys, maintenant disparues, avec l’Afro-Arabie.  Le mouvement relatif Afrique-Eurasie a influencé l'évolution de l'orogène, mais ça n’a pas été le principal facteur.  Des orogènes grandes et complexes résultant de mécanismes d’obduction similaires à l’orogène Ayyoubide peuvent exister le long de la marge des Calédonides de l'Ordovicien de Terre-Neuve/Écosse et le long de la marge européenne des Uralides de l'Ordovicien

On infimum Dickey–Fuller unit root tests allowing for a trend break under the null

Trend breaks appear to be prevalent in macroeconomic time series. Consequently, to avoid the catastrophic impact that unmodelled trend breaks have on power, it is standard empirical practice to employ unit root tests which allow for such effects. A popularly applied approach is the infimum ADF-type test. Its appeal has endured with practitioners despite results which show that the infimum ADF statistic diverges to −∞−∞ as the sample size diverges, with the consequence that the test has an asymptotic size of unity when a break in trend is present under the unit root null hypothesis. The result for additive outlier-type breaks in trend (but not intercept) is refined and shows that divergence to −∞−∞ occurs only when the true break fraction is smaller than 2/32/3. An alternative testing strategy based on the maximum of the original infimum statistic and the corresponding statistic constructed using the time-reversed sample data is considered

Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill

Tests of the co-integration rank in VAR models in the presence of a possible break in trend at an unknown point

In this paper we consider the problem of testing for the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive process in the case where a trend break may potentially be present in the data. It is known that un-modelled trend breaks can result in tests which are incorrectly sized under the null hypothesis and inconsistent under the alternative hypothesis. Extant procedures in this literature have attempted to solve this inference problem but require the practitioner to either assume that the trend break date is known or to assume that any trend break cannot occur under the co-integration rank null hypothesis being tested. These procedures also assume the autoregressive lag length is known to the practitioner. All of these assumptions would seem unreasonable in practice. Moreover in each of these strands of the literature there is also a presumption in calculating the tests that a trend break is known to have happened. This can lead to a substantial loss in finite sample power in the case where a trend break does not in fact occur. Using information criteria based methods to select both the autoregressive lag order and to choose between the trend break and no trend break models, using a consistent estimate of the break fraction in the context of the former, we develop a number of procedures which deliver asymptotically correctly sized and consistent tests of the co-integration rank regardless of whether a trend break is present in the data or not. By selecting the no break model when no trend break is present, these procedures also avoid the potentially large power losses associated with the extant procedures in such cases

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference in fractional time series models with heteroskedasticity of unknown form

We consider the problem of conducting estimation and inference on the parameters of univariate heteroskedastic fractionally integrated time series models. We first extend existing results in the literature, developed for conditional sum-of-squares estimators in the context of parametric fractional time series models driven by conditionally homoskedastic shocks, to allow for conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity both of a quite general and unknown form. Global consistency and asymptotic normality are shown to still obtain; however, the covariance matrix of the limiting distribution of the estimator now depends on nuisance parameters derived both from the weak dependence and heteroskedasticity present in the shocks. We then investigate classical methods of inference based on the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests for linear hypotheses on either or both of the long and short memory parameters of the model. The limiting null distributions of these test statistics are shown to be non-pivotal under heteroskedasticity, while that of a robust Wald statistic (based around a sandwich estimator of the variance) is pivotal. We show that wild bootstrap implementations of the tests deliver asymptotically pivotal inference under the null. We demonstrate the consistency and asymptotic normality of the bootstrap estimators, and further establish the global consistency of the asymptotic and bootstrap tests under fixed alternatives. Monte Carlo simulations highlight significant improvements in finite sample behavior using the bootstrap in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments. Our theoretical developments and Monte Carlo simulations include two bootstrap algorithms which are based on model estimates obtained either under the null hypothesis or unrestrictedly. Our simulation results suggest that the former is preferable to the latter, displaying superior size control yet largely comparable power

Negative Kaons in Dense Baryonic Matter

Kaon polarization operator in dense baryonic matter of arbitrary isotopic composition is calculated including s- and p-wave kaon-baryon interactions. The regular part of the polarization operator is extracted from the realistic kaon-nucleon interaction based on the chiral and 1/N_c expansion. Contributions of the Lambda(1116), Sigma(1195), Sigma*(1385) resonances are taken explicitly into account in the pole and regular terms with inclusion of mean-field potentials. The baryon-baryon correlations are incorporated and fluctuation contributions are estimated. Results are applied for K- in neutron star matter. Within our model a second-order phase transition to the s-wave K- condensate state occurs at rho_c \gsim 4 \rho_0 once the baryon-baryon correlations are included. We show that the second-order phase transition to the p-wave $K^-$ condensate state may occur at densities $\rho_c \sim 3\div 5 \rho_0$ in dependence on the parameter choice. We demonstrate that a first-order phase transition to a proton-enriched (approximately isospin-symmetric) nucleon matter with a p-wave K- condensate can occur at smaller densities, \rho\lsim 2 \rho_0. The transition is accompanied by the suppression of hyperon concentrations.Comment: 41 pages, 24 figures, revtex4 styl

Parton coalescence at RHIC

Using a covariant coalescence model, we study hadron production in relativistic heavy ion collisions from both soft partons in the quark-gluon plasma and hard partons in minijets. Including transverse flow of soft partons and independent fragmentation of minijet partons, the model is able to describe available experimental data on pion, kaon, and antiproton spectra. The resulting antiproton to pion ratio is seen to increase at low transverse momenta and reaches a value of about one at intermediate transverse momenta, as observed in experimental data at RHIC. A similar dependence of the antikaon to pion ratio on transverse momentum is obtained, but it reaches a smaller value at intermediate transverse momenta. At high transverse momenta, the model predicts that both the antiproton to pion and the antikaon to pion ratio decrease and approach those given by the perturbative QCD. Both collective flow effect and coalescence of minijet partons with partons in the quark-gluon plasma affect significantly the spectra of hadrons with intermediate transverse momenta. Elliptic flows of protons, Lambdas, and Omegas have also been evaluated from partons with elliptic flows extracted from fitting measured pion and kaon elliptic flows, and they are found to be consistent with available experimental data.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Two-proton correlations from 158 AGeV Pb+Pb central collisions

The two-proton correlation function at midrapidity from Pb+Pb central collisions at 158 AGeV has been measured by the NA49 experiment. The results are compared to model predictions from static thermal Gaussian proton source distributions and transport models RQMD and VENUS. An effective proton source size is determined by minimizing CHI-square/ndf between the correlation functions of the data and those calculated for the Gaussian sources, yielding 3.85 +-0.15(stat.) +0.60-0.25(syst.) fm. Both the RQMD and the VENUS model are consistent with the data within the error in the correlation peak region.Comment: RevTeX style, 6 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. More discussion are added about the structure on the tail of the correlation function. The systematic error is revised. To appear in Phys. Lett.

Event-by-event fluctuations of average transverse momentum in central Pb+Pb collisions at 158 GeV per nucleon

We present first data on event-by-event fluctuations in the average transverse momentum of charged particles produced in Pb+Pb collisions at the CERN SPS. This measurement provides previously unavailable information allowing sensitive tests of microscopic and thermodynamic collision models and to search for fluctuations expected to occur in the vicinity of the predicted QCD phase transition. We find that the observed variance of the event-by-event average transverse momentum is consistent with independent particle production modified by the known two-particle correlations due to quantum statistics and final state interactions and folded with the resolution of the NA49 apparatus. For two specific models of non-statistical fluctuations in transverse momentum limits are derived in terms of fluctuation amplitude. We show that a significant part of the parameter space for a model of isospin fluctuations predicted as a consequence of chiral symmetry restoration in a non-equilibrium scenario is excluded by our measurement.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Lett.