Vector-borne diseases with non-stationary vector populations: the case of growing and decaying populations

Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic Reproduction Number, that measures the number of secondary infections produced by an initial infected individual in a fully susceptible population. Some methods have been developed to allow the direct computation of this quantity provided that some conditions are fulfilled, such that the model has a pre-pandemic disease-free equilibrium state. This condition is only fulfilled when the populations are stationary. In the case of vector-borne diseases, this implies that the vector birth and death rates need to be balanced, what is not fulfilled in many realistic cases in which the vector population grow or decrease. Here we develop a vector-borne epidemic model with growing and decaying vector populations and study the conditions under which the standard methods to compute $R_0$ work and discuss an alternative when they fail. We also show that growing vector populations produce a delay in the epidemic dynamics when compared to the case of the stationary vector population. Finally, we discuss the conditions under which the model can be reduced to the SIR model with fewer compartments and parameters, which helps in solving the problem of parameter unidentifiability of many vector-borne epidemic models.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

Cohort study of an outbreak of viral gastroenteritis in a nursing home for elderly, Majorca, Spain, February 2008.

An outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred in a nursing home for elderly in Majorca between 4 and 23 February 2008. To know its aetiology and mechanism of transmission a retrospective cohort study was conducted with a fixed cohort including 146 people (96 residents and 50 employees). The data were collected from clinical histories and through a survey by questionnaire. In total 71 cases were identified (53 residents, 18 employees), corresponding to an overall attack rate (AR) of 48.6%

The Motor Dysfunction Seen in Isolated REM Sleep Behavior Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Isolated Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep Behavior Disorder (iRBD) requires quantitative tools to detect incipient Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: A motor battery was designed and compared with the Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part III (MDS-UPDRS-III) in people with iRBD and controls. This included two keyboard-based tests (BRadykinesia Akinesia INcoordination tap test and Distal Finger Tapping) and two dual tasking tests (walking and finger tapping). RESULTS: We included 33 iRBD patients and 29 controls. The iRBD group performed both keyboard-based tapping tests more slowly (P < 0.001, P = 0.020) and less rhythmically (P < 0.001, P = 0.006) than controls. Unlike controls, the iRBD group increased their walking duration (P < 0.001) and had a smaller amplitude (P = 0.001) and slower (P = 0.007) finger tapping with dual task. The combination of the most salient motor markers showed 90.3% sensitivity for 89.3% specificity (area under the ROC curve [AUC], 0.94), which was higher than the MDS-UPDRS-III (minus action tremor) (69.7% sensitivity, 72.4% specificity; AUC, 0.81) for detecting motor dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Speed, rhythm, and dual task motor deterioration might be accurate indicators of incipient PD in iRBD. © 2024 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society

Obesidad sarcopénica y disfuncionalidad en población con síndrome metabólico

The sarcopenic obesity (SO) is a new category of obesity, specially related with the elderly population, characterized by high fat mass and low muscle mass. It is intended to analyze the relation between SO and disability, in a population older than 55 years with overweight or obesity and metabolic syndrome.  For the body composition analyzes we used DXA in 303 patients, and for the assessment of disability we used 5 physical validated test in a subsample of 53 patients. We constructed a global physical capacity score and we studied the association with SO phenotypes, defined using the skeletal muscle mass and the total body fat.  It has not been found significant associations between SO and disability in our sample. Studies with a large sample are needed. La obesidad sarcopénica (OS) es una nueva categoría de obesidad, especialmente asociada a población envejecida, caracterizada por una elevada masa grasa y baja masa muscular. Se pretende analizar la relación entre la OS y la disfuncionalidad en una población mayor de 55 años con sobrepeso u obesidad y síndrome metabólico.Para el análisis de la composición corporal se ha utilizado la absorciometria dual de rayos X (DXA) en un total de 303 participantes, y para la valoración de la disfuncionalidad se han realizado 5 test físicos validados en una submuestra de 53 participantes. Se ha realizado una puntuación global de capacidad física y se ha mirado su asociación con los fenotipos de OS, definidos en función de la masa muscular esquelética y la grasa corporal total. No se observó una asociación significativa entre la OS y la disfuncionalidad en esta muestra. Son necesarios estudios con mayor tamaño muestral

Vigilancia de la tuberculosis en las Islas Baleares y caracterización de los casos infradeclarados entre los años 2005 y 2007

ResumenEstudio descriptivo de los casos de tuberculosis detectados por el Sistema de Vigilancia Epidemiológica en Baleares, en el trienio de 2005 a 2007. El objetivo fue caracterizar los casos infradeclarados en términos sociodemográficos y de su contacto con la atención primaria de salud. Globalmente, la infradeclaración de la tuberculosis se sitúa en torno al 20%. Las características que resultan significativas en el análisis multivariado son la marginalidad social (alcoholismo, usuarios de drogas por vía parenteral o indigencia) (odds ratio ajustada [ORa]:2,6 [1,2-5,3]), el contacto con la atención primaria (ORa:3,2 [1,4-7,1]) y la tuberculosis extrapulmonar (ORa:5,5 [3,2-9,6]). Se recomienda reforzar la notificación de los especialistas hospitalarios mediante la adecuación informática de la historia clínica hospitalaria, y se observa que la información obtenida desde la informatización de la historia en atención primaria resulta de utilidad para mejorar la vigilancia epidemiológica de la tuberculosis.AbstractWe performed a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases detected by the Epidemiological Surveillance System in the Balearic Islands in the triennium 2005-2007. Our goal was to characterize underreported cases in sociodemographic terms and their contact with primary care. Overall, underreporting of tuberculosis was approximately 20%. Significant factors in multivariate analysis were social marginality (consisting of alcoholism, intravenous drug use or indigence) (aOR: 2.6 [1.2 to 5.3]), contact with primary care (aOR: 3.2 [1.4 to 7.1]), and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (aOR: 5.5[3.2-9.6]). We recommend strengthening notification by hospital specialists through the use of hospital electronic records. Our findings show that the information obtained from the primary care computerized history is helpful in improving the epidemiological surveillance of tuberculosis

[Tuberculosis surveillance in the Balearic Islands and characteristics of unreported cases from 2005 to 2007].

We performed a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases detected by the Epidemiological Surveillance System in the Balearic Islands in the triennium 2005-2007. Our goal was to characterize underreported cases in sociodemographic terms and their contact with primary care. Overall, underreporting of tuberculosis was approximately 20%. Significant factors in multivariate analysis were social marginality (consisting of alcoholism, intravenous drug use or indigence) (aOR: 2.6 [1.2 to 5.3]), contact with primary care (aOR: 3.2 [1.4 to 7.1]), and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (aOR: 5.5[3.2-9.6]). We recommend strengthening notification by hospital specialists through the use of hospital electronic records. Our findings show that the information obtained from the primary care computerized history is helpful in improving the epidemiological surveillance of tuberculosis

Temperature responses of Rubisco from Paniceae grasses provide opportunities for improving C3 photosynthesis.

Enhancing the catalytic properties of the CO2-fixing enzyme Rubisco is a target for improving agricultural crop productivity. Here, we reveal extensive diversity in the kinetic response between 10 and 37 °C by Rubisco from C3 and C4 species within the grass tribe Paniceae. The CO2 fixation rate (kcatc) for Rubisco from the C4 grasses with nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) phosphate malic enzyme (NADP-ME) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PCK) photosynthetic pathways was twofold greater than the kcatc of Rubisco from NAD-ME species across all temperatures. The declining response of CO2/O2 specificity with increasing temperature was less pronounced for PCK and NADP-ME Rubisco, which would be advantageous in warmer climates relative to the NAD-ME grasses. Modelled variation in the temperature kinetics of Paniceae C3 Rubisco and PCK Rubisco differentially stimulated C3 photosynthesis relative to tobacco above and below 25 °C under current and elevated CO2. Amino acid substitutions in the large subunit that could account for the catalytic variation among Paniceae Rubisco are identified; however, incompatibilities with Paniceae Rubisco biogenesis in tobacco hindered their mutagenic testing by chloroplast transformation. Circumventing these bioengineering limitations is critical to tailoring the properties of crop Rubisco to suit future climates

Positively selected amino acid replacements within the RuBisCO enzyme of oak trees are associated with ecological adaptations

Phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood (PAML) has become the standard approach to study positive selection at the molecular level, but other methods may provide complementary ways to identify amino acid replacements associated with particular conditions. Here, we compare results of the decision tree (DT) model method with ones of PAML using the key photosynthetic enzyme RuBisCO as a model system to study molecular adaptation to particular ecological conditions in oaks (Quercus). We sequenced the chloroplast rbcL gene encoding RuBisCO large subunit in 158 Quercus species, covering about a third of the global genus diversity. It has been hypothesized that RuBisCO has evolved differentially depending on the environmental conditions and leaf traits governing internal gas diffusion patterns. Here, we show, using PAML, that amino acid replacements at the residue positions 95, 145, 251, 262 and 328 of the RuBisCO large subunit have been the subject of positive selection along particular Quercus lineages associated with the leaf traits and climate characteristics. In parallel, the DT model identified amino acid replacements at sites 95, 219, 262 and 328 being associated with the leaf traits and climate characteristics, exhibiting partial overlap with the results obtained using PAML

Using surveillance data to estimate pandemic vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection : two case-control studies, Spain, season 2009-2010

Background: Physicians of the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System report and systematically swab patients attended to their practices for influenza-like illness (ILI). Within the surveillance system, some Spanish regions also participated in an observational study aiming at estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (cycEVA study). During the season 2009-2010, we estimated pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness using both the influenza surveillance data and the cycEVA study. Methods: We conducted two case-control studies using the test-negative design, between weeks 48/2009 and 8/2010 of the pandemic season. The surveillance-based study included all swabbed patients in the sentinel surveillance system. The cycEVA study included swabbed patients from seven Spanish regions. Cases were laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009. Controls were ILI patients testing negative for any type of influenza. Variables collected in both studies included demographic data, vaccination status, laboratory results, chronic conditions, and pregnancy. Additionally, cycEVA questionnaire collected data on previous influenza vaccination, smoking, functional status, hospitalisations, visits to the general practitioners, and obesity. We used logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR), computing pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR *100. Results: We included 331 cases and 995 controls in the surveillance-based study and 85 cases and 351 controls in the cycEVA study. We detected nine (2.7%) and two (2.4%) vaccine failures in the surveillance-based and cycEVA studies, respectively. Adjusting for variables collected in surveillance database and swabbing month, pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness was 62% (95% confidence interval (CI): -5; 87). The cycEVA vaccine effectiveness was 64% (95%CI: -225; 96) when adjusting for common variables with the surveillance system and 75% (95%CI: -293; 98) adjusting for all variables collected. Conclusion: Point estimates of the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness suggested a protective effect of the pandemic vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 in the season 2009-2010. Both studies were limited by the low vaccine coverage and the late start of the vaccination campaign. Routine influenza surveillance provides reliable estimates and could be used for influenza vaccine effectiveness studies in future seasons taken into account the surveillance system limitations