Gas seepage and seismogenic structures along the North Anatolian Fault in the eastern Sea of Marmara

We carried out a combined geophysical and gas-geochemical survey on an active fault strand along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system in the Gulf of İzmit (eastern Sea of Marmara), providing for the first time in this area data on the distribution of methane (CH4) and other gases dissolved in the bottom seawater, as well as the CH4isotopic composition. Based on high-resolution morphobathymetric data and chirp-sonar seismic reflection profiles we selected three areas with different tectonic features associated to the NAF system, where we performed visual and instrumental seafloor inspections, including in situ measurements of dissolved CH4, and sampling of the bottom water. Starting from background values of 2–10 nM, methane concentration in the bottom seawater increases abruptly up to 20 nM over the main NAF trace. CH4 concentration peaks up to ∼120 nM were detected above mounds related probably to gas and fluids expulsion. Methane is microbial (δ13CCH4: −67.3 and −76‰ versus VPDB), and was found mainly associated with pre-Holocene deposits topped by a 10–20 m thick draping of marine mud. The correlation between tectonic structures and gas-seepages at the seafloor suggests that the NAF in the Gulf of İzmit could represent a key site for long-term combined monitoring of fluid exhalations and seismicity to assess their potential as earthquake precursors

The transition between stochastic and deterministic behavior in an excitable gene circuit

We explore the connection between a stochastic simulation model and an ordinary differential equations (ODEs) model of the dynamics of an excitable gene circuit that exhibits noise-induced oscillations. Near a bifurcation point in the ODE model, the stochastic simulation model yields behavior dramatically different from that predicted by the ODE model. We analyze how that behavior depends on the gene copy number and find very slow convergence to the large number limit near the bifurcation point. The implications for understanding the dynamics of gene circuits and other birth-death dynamical systems with small numbers of constituents are discussed.Comment: PLoS ONE: Research Article, published 11 Apr 201

Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara

Earthquake-induced submarine slope destabilization is known to cause mass wasting and turbidity currents, but the hydrodynamic processes associated with these events remain poorly understood. Instrumental records are rare, and this notably limits our ability to interpret marine paleoseismological sedimentary records. An instrumented frame comprising a pressure recorder and a Doppler recording current meter deployed at the seafloor in the Sea of Marmara Central Basin recorded the consequences of a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurring on 26 September 2019 and of a Mw 4.7 foreshock 2 d before. The smaller event caused sediment resuspension and weak current (&lt;4 cm s−1) in the water column. The larger event triggered a complex response involving a debris flow and turbidity currents with variable velocities and orientations, which may have resulted from multiple slope failures. A long delay of 10 h is observed between the earthquake and the passing of the strongest turbidity current. The distance traveled by the sediment particles during the event is estimated to have extended over several kilometers, which could account for a local deposit on a sediment fan at the outlet of a canyon (where the instrument was located), but the sedimentation event did not likely cover the whole basin floor. We show that after a moderate earthquake, delayed turbidity current initiation may occur, possibly by ignition of a cloud of resuspended sediment.</p

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the “Istanbul seismic gap”) has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5–5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain

Hydrology in the Sea of Marmara during the last 23 ka : implications for timing of Black Sea connections and sapropel deposition

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 25 (2010): PA1205, doi:10.1029/2009PA001735.Sediments deposited under lacustrine and marine conditions in the Sea of Marmara hold a Late Quaternary record for water exchange between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Here we report a multiproxy data set based on oxygen and strontium isotope results obtained from carbonate shells, major and trace elements, and specific organic biomarker measurements, as well as a micropaleontological study from a 14C-dated sediment core retrieved from the Sea of Marmara. Pronounced changes occurred in δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr values at the fresh and marine water transition, providing additional information in relation to micropaleontological data. Organic biomarker concentrations documented the marine origin of the sapropelic layer while changes in n-alkane concentrations clearly indicated an enhanced contribution for organic matter of terrestrial origin before and after the event. When compared with the Black Sea record, the results suggest that the Black Sea was outflowing to the Sea of Marmara from the Last Glacial Maximum until the warmer Bølling-Allerød. The first marine incursion in the Sea of Marmara occurred at 14.7 cal ka B.P. However, salinification of the basin was gradual, indicating that Black Sea freshwaters were still contributing to the Marmara seawater budget. After the Younger Dryas (which is associated with a high input of organic matter of terrestrial origin) both basins were disconnected, resulting in a salinity increase in the Sea of Marmara. The deposition of organic-rich sapropel that followed was mainly related to enhanced primary productivity characterized by a reorganization of the phytoplankton population.We acknowledge support from INSU and the French Polar Institute IPEV

Immersive Insights: A Hybrid Analytics System for Collaborative Exploratory Data Analysis

In the past few years, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies have experienced terrific improvements in both accessibility and hardware capabilities, encouraging the application of these devices across various domains. While researchers have demonstrated the possible advantages of AR and VR for certain data science tasks, it is still unclear how these technologies would perform in the context of exploratory data analysis (EDA) at large. In particular, we believe it is important to better understand which level of immersion EDA would concretely benefit from, and to quantify the contribution of AR and VR with respect to standard analysis workflows. In this work, we leverage a Dataspace reconfigurable hybrid reality environment to study how data scientists might perform EDA in a co-located, collaborative context. Specifically, we propose the design and implementation of Immersive Insights, a hybrid analytics system combining high-resolution displays, table projections, and augmented reality (AR) visualizations of the data. We conducted a two-part user study with twelve data scientists, in which we evaluated how different levels of data immersion affect the EDA process and compared the performance of Immersive Insights with a state-of-the-art, non-immersive data analysis system.Comment: VRST 201

Optimal Strategy for Competence Differentiation in Bacteria

A phylogenetically diverse subset of bacterial species are naturally competent for transformation by DNA. Transformation entails recombination of genes between different lineages, representing a form of bacterial sex that increases standing genetic variation. We first assess whether homologous recombination by transformation is favored by evolution. Using stochastic population genetic computer simulations in which beneficial and deleterious mutations occur at many loci throughout the whole genome, we find that transformation can increase both the rate of adaptive evolution and the equilibrium level of fitness. Secondly, motivated by experimental observations of Bacillus subtilis, we assume that competence additionally entails a weak persister phenotype, i.e., the rates of birth and death are reduced for these cells. Consequently, persisters evolve more slowly than non-persisters. We show via simulation that strains which stochastically switch into and out of the competent phenotype are evolutionarily favored over strains that express only a single phenotype. Our model's simplicity enables us to derive and numerically solve a system of finite- deterministic equations that describe the evolutionary dynamics. The observed tradeoff between the benefit of recombination and the cost of persistence may explain the previously mysterious observation that only a fractional subpopulation of B. subtilis cells express competence. More generally, this work demonstrates that population genetic forces can give rise to phenotypic diversity even in an unchanging and homogeneous environment

Mapping the Environmental Fitness Landscape of a Synthetic Gene Circuit

Gene expression actualizes the organismal phenotypes encoded within the genome in an environment-dependent manner. Among all encoded phenotypes, cell population growth rate (fitness) is perhaps the most important, since it determines how well-adapted a genotype is in various environments. Traditional biological measurement techniques have revealed the connection between the environment and fitness based on the gene expression mean. Yet, recently it became clear that cells with identical genomes exposed to the same environment can differ dramatically from the population average in their gene expression and division rate (individual fitness). For cell populations with bimodal gene expression, this difference is particularly pronounced, and may involve stochastic transitions between two cellular states that form distinct sub-populations. Currently it remains unclear how a cell population's growth rate and its subpopulation fractions emerge from the molecular-level kinetics of gene networks and the division rates of single cells. To address this question we developed and quantitatively characterized an inducible, bistable synthetic gene circuit controlling the expression of a bifunctional antibiotic resistance gene in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Following fitness and fluorescence measurements in two distinct environments (inducer alone and antibiotic alone), we applied a computational approach to predict cell population fitness and subpopulation fractions in the combination of these environments based on stochastic cellular movement in gene expression space and fitness space. We found that knowing the fitness and nongenetic (cellular) memory associated with specific gene expression states were necessary for predicting the overall fitness of cell populations in combined environments. We validated these predictions experimentally and identified environmental conditions that defined a “sweet spot” of drug resistance. These findings may provide a roadmap for connecting the molecular-level kinetics of gene networks to cell population fitness in well-defined environments, and may have important implications for phenotypic variability of drug resistance in natural settings

Redating the formation of Lake Bafa, western Turkey: Integrative geoarchaeological methods and new environmental and dating evidence

The ancient Gulf of Latmos is an iconic example of a dynamic landscape and humankind's historical relationship with it. Using extensive new primary data and original models for calibrating radiocarbon dates in transitional lagoon environments, we demonstrate that Lake Bafa (or Bafa Gölü, in Turkish) formed at a much earlier date than previously thought. In questioning the logical process by which previous dates were achieved, we re‐examine the relationship between sedimentological data, archaeology and written history. We reassert the need to establish independently dated environmental data sets as the foundation of regional studies as distinct from archaeological and historical interpretive processes. We conclude that Lake Bafa slowly transitioned to become an isolated lagoon sometime between the end of the second millennium B.C. and end of the first millennium B.C.; becoming a fully closed brackish lake during the second millennium A.D. This marks a major shift in our understanding of the nature of human occupation and activity here during the last four millennia but also in the way we date ancient lagoons and integrate historical and environmental data in general

Assessing changes in global fire regimes

PAGES, Past Global Changes, is funded by the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences and supported in kind by the University of Bern, Switzerland. Financial support was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation award numbers 1916565, EAR-2011439, and EAR-2012123. Additional support was provided by the Utah Department of Natural Resources Watershed Restoration Initiative. SSS was supported by Brigham Young University Graduate Studies. MS was supported by National Science Centre, Poland (grant no. 2018/31/B/ST10/02498 and 2021/41/B/ST10/00060). JCA was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101026211. PF contributed within the framework of the FCT-funded project no. UIDB/04033/2020. SGAF acknowledges support from Trond Mohn Stiftelse (TMS) and University of Bergen for the startup grant ‘TMS2022STG03’. JMP participation in this research was supported by the Forest Research Centre, a research unit funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. (FCT), Portugal (UIDB/00239/2020). A.-LD acknowledge PAGES, PICS CNRS 06484 project, CNRS-INSU, Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine, University of Bordeaux DRI and INQUA for workshop support.Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.Peer reviewe