A bare ground evaporation revision in the ECMWF land-surface scheme: evaluation of its impact using ground soil moisture and satellite microwave data

In situ soil moisture data from 122 stations across the United States are used to evaluate the impact of a new bare ground evaporation formulation at ECMWF. In November 2010, the bare ground evaporation used in ECMWF's operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) was enhanced by adopting a lower stress threshold than for the vegetation, allowing a higher evaporation. It results in more realistic soil moisture values when compared to in situ data, particularly over dry areas. Use was made of the operational IFS and offline experiments for the evaluation. The latter are based on a fixed version of the IFS and make it possible to assess the impact of a single modification, while the operational analysis is based on a continuous effort to improve the analysis and modelling systems, resulting in frequent updates (a few times a year). Considering the field sites with a fraction of bare ground greater than 0.2, the root mean square difference (RMSD) of soil moisture is shown to decrease from 0.118 m<sup>3</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> to 0.087 m<sup>3</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> when using the new formulation in offline experiments, and from 0.110 m<sup>3</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> to 0.088 m<sup>3</sup> m<sup>−3</sup> in operations. It also improves correlations. Additionally, the impact of the new formulation on the terrestrial microwave emission at a global scale is investigated. Realistic and dynamically consistent fields of brightness temperature as a function of the land surface conditions are required for the assimilation of the SMOS data. Brightness temperature simulated from surface fields from two offline experiments with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling (CMEM) platform present monthly mean differences up to 7 K. Offline experiments with the new formulation present drier soil moisture, hence simulated brightness temperature with its surface fields are larger. They are also closer to SMOS remotely sensed brightness temperature

The impact of SMOS soil moisture data assimilation within the Operational Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)

In this study the impacts of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) soil moisture data assimilation upon the streamflow prediction of the operational Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) were investigated. Two GloFAS experiments were performed, one which used hydro-meteorological forcings produced with the assimilation of the SMOS data, the other using forcings which excluded the assimilation of the SMOS data. Both sets of experiment results were verified against streamflow observations in the United States and Australia. Skill scores were computed for each experiment against the observation datasets, the differences in the skill scores were used to identify where GloFAS skill may be affected by the assimilation of SMOS soil moisture data. In addition, a global assessment was made of the impact upon the 5th and 95th GloFAS flow percentiles to see how SMOS data assimilation affected low and high flows respectively. Results against in-situ observations found that GloFAS skill score was only affected by a small amount. At a global scale, the results showed a large impact on high flows in areas such as the Hudson Bay, central United States, the Sahel and Australia. There was no clear spatial trend to these differences as opposing signs occurred within close proximity to each other. Investigating the differences between the simulations at individual gauging stations showed that they often only occurred during a single flood event; for the remainder of the simulation period the experiments were almost identical. This suggests that SMOS data assimilation may affect the generation of surface runoff during high flow events, but may have less impact on baseflow generation during the remainder of the hydrograph. To further understand this, future work could assess the impact of SMOS data assimilation upon specific hydrological components such as surface and subsurface runoff

Assessment of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrieval Parameters Using Tau-Omega Algorithms for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) is the latest mission which provides flow of coarse resolution soil moisture data for land applications. However, the efficient retrieval of soil moisture for hydrological applications depends on optimally choosing the soil and vegetation parameters. The first stage of this work involves the evaluation of SMOS Level 2 products and then several approaches for soil moisture retrieval from SMOS brightness temperature are performed to estimate Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD). The most widely applied algorithm i.e. Single channel algorithm (SCA), based on tau-omega is used in this study for the soil moisture retrieval. In tau-omega, the soil moisture is retrieved using the Horizontal (H) polarisation following Hallikainen dielectric model, roughness parameters, Fresnel's equation and estimated Vegetation Optical Depth (tau). The roughness parameters are empirically calibrated using the numerical optimization techniques. Further to explore the improvement in retrieval models, modifications have been incorporated in the algorithms with respect to the sources of the parameters, which include effective temperatures derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-NOAH Land Surface Model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) while the s is derived from MODIS Leaf Area Index (LAI). All the evaluations are performed against SMD, which is estimated using the Probability Distributed Model following a careful calibration and validation integrated with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The performance obtained after all those changes indicate that SCA-H using WRF-NOAH LSM downscaled ECMWF LST produces an improved performance for SMD estimation at a catchment scale

European Capacity for Monitoring and Assimilating Space-based Climate Change Observations - Status and Prospects

This report, which is based on the findings of a workshop at Ispra in March 2009, provides the scientific background to a forthcoming Commission response to the Space and Competitiveness councils requests that the commission assess the needs for full access to standardised climate change data, the means to provide these data and together with ESA, EUMETSAT and the scientific community define how GMES services can contribute effectively to providing these data. The report therefore focuses primarily, but not exclusively, on space-based Climate data sources. Standardised climate data are needed for climate monitoring, prediction and research, while climate information informs the policy cycle at four key points - Policy definition; Management and scenario building; Reporting requirements; Alarm functions. The workshop identified the 44 Essential Climate Variables defined by GCOS as the minimum set of standardised climate data that the commission should be considering and a gap analysis for the provision of these observations was undertaken. In addition European capacity is analysed according to maturity, differentiating between sustained operational capacity (Envelope Missions/EUMETSAT), non-operationally funded repetitive capacity and additional infrastructure needs in order to fill the gaps are identified. Finally the report discusses co-ordination and governance issues and how to overcome them. The key findings and recommendations are contained in an executive summary.JRC.DDG.H.2-Climate chang

Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global Earth surface modelling: a review

In this paper, we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort

Assimilation of SMOS Retrievals in the Land Information System

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite provides retrievals of soil moisture in the upper 5 cm with a 30-50 km resolution and a mission accuracy requirement of 0.04 cm(sub 3 cm(sub -3). These observations can be used to improve land surface model soil moisture states through data assimilation. In this paper, SMOS soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Noah land surface model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter within the NASA Land Information System. Bias correction is implemented using Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching, with points aggregated by either land cover or soil type to reduce sampling error in generating the CDFs. An experiment was run for the warm season of 2011 to test SMOS data assimilation and to compare assimilation methods. Verification of soil moisture analyses in the 0-10 cm upper layer and root zone (0-1 m) was conducted using in situ measurements from several observing networks in the central and southeastern United States. This experiment showed that SMOS data assimilation significantly increased the anomaly correlation of Noah soil moisture with station measurements from 0.45 to 0.57 in the 0-10 cm layer. Time series at specific stations demonstrate the ability of SMOS DA to increase the dynamic range of soil moisture in a manner consistent with station measurements. Among the bias correction methods, the correction based on soil type performed best at bias reduction but also reduced correlations. The vegetation-based correction did not produce any significant differences compared to using a simple uniform correction curve

Combined Assimilation of Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture: A Case Study Using TRMM and SMOS Data

This paper presents a framework that enables simultaneous assimilation of satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Noah land surface model through variational approaches. The authors tested the framework by assimilating precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The results show that assimilation of both TRMM and SMOS data can effectively improve the forecast skills of precipitation, top 10-cm soil moisture, and 2-m temperature and specific humidity. Within a 2-day time window, impacts of precipitation data assimilation on the forecasts remain relatively constant for forecast lead times greater than 6 h, while the influence of soil moisture data assimilation increases with lead time. The study also demonstrates that the forecast skill of precipitation, soil moisture, and near-surface temperature and humidity are further improved when both the TRMM and SMOS data are assimilated. In particular, the combined data assimilation reduces the prediction biases and root-mean-square errors, respectively, by 57% and 6% (for precipitation); 73% and 27% (for soil moisture); 17% and 9% (for 2-m temperature); and 33% and 11% (for 2-m specific humidity)

TPOS2020 : Tropical Pacific Observing System for 2020

This paper presents the new international TPOS2020 project: why it has been established, what are its scientific objectives, its proposed organization, governance, and what the expected outcomes are. It is aiming at informing Coriolis, Mercator Océan, and the operational oceanography communities, all concerned, and involved in generating interest and contributions to the project. Building upon its scientific activities in the Pacific and the surrounding countries, the French community is willing to take an active role in this international project. The TPOS 2020 Project is a focused, finite term project, which began in 2014 and will be completed in 2020. It will evaluate, and where necessary provide guidance, to change all elements that contribute to the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) based on a modern understanding of tropical Pacific science. Learning lessons from the great success-and finally partial collapse- of the TAO/TRITON array, the project objective is to build a renewed, integrated, internationally-coordinated and sustainable observing system in the Tropical Pacific, meeting both the needs of climate research and operational forecasting systems. The scientific objectives are: - To redesign and refine the TPOS to observe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and advance scientific understanding of its causes, - To determine the most efficient and effective observational solutions to support prediction systems for ocean, weather and climate services, - To advance understanding of tropical Pacific physical and biogeochemical variability and predictability. TPOS2020 is coordinated by a steering committee with task teams and working groups working on specific aspects of the observing system. Since much of the use and benefit of TPOS data will be achieved through model assimilation and syntheses, the operational modeling centers are considered key partners. The TPOS2020 project also opens partnerships with other global ocean observing communities: the meteorological community, and the coastal and regional ocean communities. TPOS 2020 embraces the integration of complementary sampling technologies; it will consider the different observing system components as an integrated whole, targeting robustness and sustainability, along with a developed governance and coordination

Observation and integrated Earth-system science: a roadmap for 2016–2025

This report is the response to a request by the Committee on Space Research of the International Council for Science to prepare a roadmap on observation and integrated Earth-system science for the coming ten years. Its focus is on the combined use of observations and modelling to address the functioning, predictability and projected evolution of interacting components of the Earth system on timescales out to a century or so. It discusses how observations support integrated Earth-system science and its applications, and identifies planned enhancements to the contributing observing systems and other requirements for observations and their processing. All types of observation are considered, but emphasis is placed on those made from space. The origins and development of the integrated view of the Earth system are outlined, noting the interactions between the main components that lead to requirements for integrated science and modelling, and for the observations that guide and support them. What constitutes an Earth-system model is discussed. Summaries are given of key cycles within the Earth system. The nature of Earth observation and the arrangements for international coordination essential for effective operation of global observing systems are introduced. Instances are given of present types of observation, what is already on the roadmap for 2016–2025 and some of the issues to be faced. Observations that are organised on a systematic basis and observations that are made for process understanding and model development, or other research or demonstration purposes, are covered. Specific accounts are given for many of the variables of the Earth system. The current status and prospects for Earth-system modelling are summarized. The evolution towards applying Earth-system models for environmental monitoring and prediction as well as for climate simulation and projection is outlined. General aspects of the improvement of models, whether through refining the representations of processes that are already incorporated or through adding new processes or components, are discussed. Some important elements of Earth-system models are considered more fully. Data assimilation is discussed not only because it uses observations and models to generate datasets for monitoring the Earth system and for initiating and evaluating predictions, in particular through reanalysis, but also because of the feedback it provides on the quality of both the observations and the models employed. Inverse methods for surface-flux or model-parameter estimation are also covered. Reviews are given of the way observations and the processed datasets based on them are used for evaluating models, and of the combined use of observations and models for monitoring and interpreting the behaviour of the Earth system and for predicting and projecting its future. A set of concluding discussions covers general developmental needs, requirements for continuity of space-based observing systems, further long-term requirements for observations and other data, technological advances and data challenges, and the importance of enhanced international co-operation

Statistical analysis and combination of active and passive microwave remote sensing methods for soil moisture retrieval

Knowledge about soil moisture and its spatio-temporal dynamics is essential for the improvement of climate and hydrological modeling, including drought and flood monitoring and forecasting, as well as weather forecasting models. In recent years, several soil moisture products from active and passive microwave remote sensing have become available with high temporal resolution and global coverage. Thus, the validation and evaluation of spatial and temporal soil moisture patterns are of great interest, for improving soil moisture products as well as for their proper use in models or other applications. This thesis analyzes the different accuracy levels of global soil moisture products and identifies the major influencing factors on this accuracy based on a small catchment example. Furthermore, on global scale, structural differences betweenthe soil moisture products were investigated. This includes in particular the representation of spatial and temporal patterns, as well as a general scaling law of soil moisture variability with extent scale. The results of the catchment scale as well as the global scale analyses identified vegetation to have a high impact on the accuracy of remotely sensed soil moisture products. Therefore, an improved method to consider vegetation characteristics in pasive soil moisture retrieval from active radar satellite data was developed and tested. The knowledge gained by this thesis will contribute to improve soil moisture retrieval of current and future microwave remote sensors (e.g. SMOS or SMAP)