Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie

Temporal Networks

A great variety of systems in nature, society and technology -- from the web of sexual contacts to the Internet, from the nervous system to power grids -- can be modeled as graphs of vertices coupled by edges. The network structure, describing how the graph is wired, helps us understand, predict and optimize the behavior of dynamical systems. In many cases, however, the edges are not continuously active. As an example, in networks of communication via email, text messages, or phone calls, edges represent sequences of instantaneous or practically instantaneous contacts. In some cases, edges are active for non-negligible periods of time: e.g., the proximity patterns of inpatients at hospitals can be represented by a graph where an edge between two individuals is on throughout the time they are at the same ward. Like network topology, the temporal structure of edge activations can affect dynamics of systems interacting through the network, from disease contagion on the network of patients to information diffusion over an e-mail network. In this review, we present the emergent field of temporal networks, and discuss methods for analyzing topological and temporal structure and models for elucidating their relation to the behavior of dynamical systems. In the light of traditional network theory, one can see this framework as moving the information of when things happen from the dynamical system on the network, to the network itself. Since fundamental properties, such as the transitivity of edges, do not necessarily hold in temporal networks, many of these methods need to be quite different from those for static networks

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Spreading processes in Multilayer Networks

Several systems can be modeled as sets of interconnected networks or networks with multiple types of connections, here generally called multilayer networks. Spreading processes such as information propagation among users of an online social networks, or the diffusion of pathogens among individuals through their contact network, are fundamental phenomena occurring in these networks. However, while information diffusion in single networks has received considerable attention from various disciplines for over a decade, spreading processes in multilayer networks is still a young research area presenting many challenging research issues. In this paper we review the main models, results and applications of multilayer spreading processes and discuss some promising research directions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 4 table