Empirical Evidence on the Use of Credit Scoring for Predicting Insurance Losses with Psycho-social and Biochemical Explanations

An important development in personal lines of insurance in the United States is the use of credit history data for insurance risk classification to predict losses. This research presents the results of collaboration with industry conducted by a university at the request of its state legislature. The purpose was to see the viability and validity of the use of credit scoring to predict insurance losses given its controversial nature and criticism as redundant of other predictive variables currently used. Working with industry and government, this study analyzed more than 175,000 policyholders’ information for the relationship between credit score and claims. Credit scores were significantly related to incurred losses, evidencing both statistical and practical significance. We investigate whether the revealed relationship between credit score and incurred losses was explainable by overlap with existing underwriting variables or whether the credit score adds new information about losses not contained in existing underwriting variables. The results show that credit scores contain significant information not already incorporated into other traditional rating variables (e.g., age, sex, driving history). We discuss how sensation seeking and self-control theory provide a partial explanation of why credit scoring works (the psycho-social perspective). This article also presents an overview of biological and chemical correlates of risk taking that helps explain why knowing risk-taking behavior in one realm (e.g., risky financial behavior and poor credit history) transits to predicting risk-taking behavior in other realms (e.g., automobile insurance incurred losses). Additional research is needed to advance new nontraditional loss prediction variables from social media consumer information to using information provided by technological advances. The evolving and dynamic nature of the insurance marketplace makes it imperative that professionals continue to evolve predictive variables and for academics to assist with understanding the whys of the relationships through theory development.IC2 Institut

With a little help from my goals : integrating intergoal facilitation with the theory of planned behaviour to predict physical activity

Reproduced with permission from British Journal of Health Psychology © The British Psychological Society 2010.Peer reviewedPostprin

Studying and Modeling the Connection between People's Preferences and Content Sharing

People regularly share items using online social media. However, people's decisions around sharing---who shares what to whom and why---are not well understood. We present a user study involving 87 pairs of Facebook users to understand how people make their sharing decisions. We find that even when sharing to a specific individual, people's own preference for an item (individuation) dominates over the recipient's preferences (altruism). People's open-ended responses about how they share, however, indicate that they do try to personalize shares based on the recipient. To explain these contrasting results, we propose a novel process model of sharing that takes into account people's preferences and the salience of an item. We also present encouraging results for a sharing prediction model that incorporates both the senders' and the recipients' preferences. These results suggest improvements to both algorithms that support sharing in social media and to information diffusion models.Comment: CSCW 201

Personality in Computational Advertising: A Benchmark

In the last decade, new ways of shopping online have increased the possibility of buying products and services more easily and faster than ever. In this new context, personality is a key determinant in the decision making of the consumer when shopping. A person’s buying choices are influenced by psychological factors like impulsiveness; indeed some consumers may be more susceptible to making impulse purchases than others. Since affective metadata are more closely related to the user’s experience than generic parameters, accurate predictions reveal important aspects of user’s attitudes, social life, including attitude of others and social identity. This work proposes a highly innovative research that uses a personality perspective to determine the unique associations among the consumer’s buying tendency and advert recommendations. In fact, the lack of a publicly available benchmark for computational advertising do not allow both the exploration of this intriguing research direction and the evaluation of recent algorithms. We present the ADS Dataset, a publicly available benchmark consisting of 300 real advertisements (i.e., Rich Media Ads, Image Ads, Text Ads) rated by 120 unacquainted individuals, enriched with Big-Five users’ personality factors and 1,200 personal users’ pictures

Modeling Empathy and Distress in Reaction to News Stories

Computational detection and understanding of empathy is an important factor in advancing human-computer interaction. Yet to date, text-based empathy prediction has the following major limitations: It underestimates the psychological complexity of the phenomenon, adheres to a weak notion of ground truth where empathic states are ascribed by third parties, and lacks a shared corpus. In contrast, this contribution presents the first publicly available gold standard for empathy prediction. It is constructed using a novel annotation methodology which reliably captures empathy assessments by the writer of a statement using multi-item scales. This is also the first computational work distinguishing between multiple forms of empathy, empathic concern, and personal distress, as recognized throughout psychology. Finally, we present experimental results for three different predictive models, of which a CNN performs the best.Comment: To appear at EMNLP 201

Recommender Systems

The ongoing rapid expansion of the Internet greatly increases the necessity of effective recommender systems for filtering the abundant information. Extensive research for recommender systems is conducted by a broad range of communities including social and computer scientists, physicists, and interdisciplinary researchers. Despite substantial theoretical and practical achievements, unification and comparison of different approaches are lacking, which impedes further advances. In this article, we review recent developments in recommender systems and discuss the major challenges. We compare and evaluate available algorithms and examine their roles in the future developments. In addition to algorithms, physical aspects are described to illustrate macroscopic behavior of recommender systems. Potential impacts and future directions are discussed. We emphasize that recommendation has a great scientific depth and combines diverse research fields which makes it of interests for physicists as well as interdisciplinary researchers.Comment: 97 pages, 20 figures (To appear in Physics Reports