Application of SLEUTH Model to Predict Urbanization Along the Emilia-Romagna Coast (Italy): Considerations and Lessons Learned

Coastal zone of Emilia-Romagna region, Italy, has been significantly urbanized during the last decades, as a result of a tourism development. This was the main motivation to estimate future trajectories of urban growth in the area. Cellular automata (CA)-based SLEUTH model was applied for this purpose, by using quality geographical dataset combined with relevant information on environmental management policy. Three different scenarios of urban growth were employed: sprawled growth scenario, compact growth scenario and a scenario with business-as-usual pattern of development. The results showed the maximum increase in urbanization in the area would occur if urban areas continue to grow according to compact growth scenario, while minimum was observed in case of more sprawled-like type of growth. This research goes beyond the domain of the study site, providing future users of SLEUTH detailed discussion on considerations that need to be taken into account in its applicatio

ANALIZA OPĆEG PREŽIVLJENJA BOLESNIKA S KARCINOMOM PLUĆA PRIJE UVOĐENJA INHIBITORA TIROZIN KINAZE I IMUNOTERAPIJE U REPUBLICI HRVATSKOJ – STUDIJA IZ JEDNE USTANOVE

We analyzed outcome in patients with lung cancer (LC) in the period before the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immunotherapy in the Republic of Croatia in comparison to similar studies abroad and created a basis for future analysis. At the Pathology Department, Split University Hospital Center, 1165 patients were diagnosed with LC during the 2012-2016 period. Data on age, gender, biopsy specimen, histologic type, and stage of disease were collected. Overall survival of each patient was calculated from the date of biopsy until death or the last day of follow-up.There were 74% of male and 26% of female patients. Median age was 66 years, younger than in other similar studies. In 78% of patients, the diagnosis of LC was based on brochoscopic biopsy. Adenocarcinoma (ADC) was diagnosed in 42.9%, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in 32.7%, and small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC) in 16.7% of cases. In females, ADC was more common than SCC (p<0.001). The mean survival was 22.3 months, median 10 months, and 5-year survival rate was 16.5%. Patients older than 74 years had shorter mean survival compared to younger patients, with the risk of death 1.1 times higher for each increasing age range group (p<0.001). The risk of death was 1.34 times higher in males than females (p<0.001), and 1.12 times higher for SCLC than ADC/SC (p=0.005). Gender, age, and histologic type were confi rmed as independent prognostic factors. Women lived on average 8 months longer than men (28 vs. 20.4 months). The 5-year survival rate of 16.5% in the Split-Dalmatia County was better than the one recorded at the national level (10%).Analizirali smo ishod ispitanika s karcinomom pluća u razdoblju prije uvođenja inhibitora tirozin kinaze i imunoterapije u Republici Hrvatskoj, rezultate usporedili sa sličnim studijama i stvorili osnovu za buduće analize. Na Odjelu za patologiju KBC-a Split od 2012. do 2016. godine karcinom pluća je dijagnosticiran u 1165 bolesnika. Prikupljeni su podatci o dobi, spolu, bioptičkom uzorku, histološkom tipu karcinoma i stadiju bolesti. Ukupno preživljenje za svakog bolesnika izračunato je od datuma biopsije do datuma smrti, odnosno posljednjeg dana praćenja. Sedamdesetčetiri posto ispitanika bili su muškarci, a 26 % žene, medijan dobi 66 godina (manji nego u sličnim studijama). U 78 % slučajeva dijagnoza je postavljena bronhoskopskom biopsijom. Adenokarcinom (ADC) je dijagnosticiran u 42,9 %, skvamozni karcinom (SCC) u 32,7 % i karcinom malih stanica (SCLC) u 16,7 % slučajeva. U žena je ADC bio češći od SCC (p<0,001). Prosječno preživljenje bilo je 22,3 mjeseca, medijan 10 mjeseci, a stopa petogodišnjeg preživljenja 16,5%. Bolesnici u skupini starijih od 74 godine imali su kraće prosječno preživljavanje u odnosu na mlađe skupine, s rizikom smrti 1,1 puta većim za svaku višu dobnu skupinu (p<0,001). Rizik smrti bio je 1,34 puta veći za muškarce nego za žene (p<0,001), a 1,12 puta veći za SCLC od ADC/SC (p=0,005). Spol, dob i histološki tip karcinoma potvrđeni su kao neovisni prognostički čimbenici. Žene su u prosjeku živjele 8 mjeseci duže od muškaraca, 28 naspram 20,4 mjeseca. Petogodišnja stopa preživljenja od 16,5 % u našoj kohorti bila je bolja nego na nacionalnoj razini, 10 %

Process-based indicators to assess storm induced coastal hazards

Storms are responsible for several hazards (e.g. overwash, erosion, inundation) in coastal areas, leading to the destruction of property and loss of life in populated areas. Various indicators are used to express potential storm impact and describe the associated hazards. The most commonly used indicators include either forcing parameters (e.g. wave height, sea level) or coastal morphologies (e.g. dune height or berm width). Whereas they do not represent the processes associated with storm induced hazards in coastal areas. Alternatively, a hazard could be better characterised if process-based indicators are used instead. Process-based indicators express the result of the forcing mechanisms acting over the coastal morphology and reflect both hydrodynamic and morphological characteristics. This work discusses and synthesizes the most relevant process-based indicators for sandy shores subject to overwash, erosion and inundation promoted by storms. Those include: overwash depth, potential and extent; shoreline, berm or dune retreat; vertical erosion; and inundation depth and extent. The selection of a reduced set of process-based indicators to identify coastal hazards induced by storms in sandy coasts will facilitate comparison of different coastal behaviours for distinct storm return periods, and help to optimise coastal management plans, thereby contributing to the reduction of coastal risks.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Meeting of the Ecosystem Approach Correspondence Group on on Pollution Monitoring (CorMon Pollution)

In accordance with the UNEP/MAP Programme of Work adopted by COP 21 for the biennium 2020-2021, the United Nations Environment Programme/Mediterranean Action Plan-Barcelona Convention Secretariat (UNEP/MAP) and its Programme for the Assessment and Control of Marine Pollution in the Mediterranean (MED POL) organized the Meeting of the Ecosystem Approach Correspondence Group on Pollution Monitoring (CorMon on Pollution Monitoring). The Meeting was held via videoconference on 26-27 April 2021. 2. The main objectives of the Meeting were to: a) Review the Monitoring Guidelines/Protocols for IMAP Common Indicator 18, as well as the Monitoring Guidelines/Protocols for Analytical Quality Assurance and Reporting of Monitoring Data for IMAP Common Indicators 13, 14, 17, 18 and 20; b) Take stock of the state of play of inter-laboratory testing and good laboratory practice related to IMAP Ecological Objectives 5 and 9; c) Analyze the proposal for the integration and aggregation rules for IMAP Ecological Objectives 5, 9 and 10 and assessment criteria for contaminants and nutrients; d) Recommend the ways and means to strengthen implementation of IMAP Pollution Cluster towards preparation of the 2023 MED Quality Status Report

Operationalising Coastal Resilience to Flood and Erosion Hazard: A Demonstration for England.

Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal flood and erosion hazard could be measured and applied within policy processes, using England as a case study. We define resilience pragmatically, integrating what is presently a disparate set of policy objectives for coastal areas. Our definition uses the concepts of resistance, recovery and adaptation, to consider how the economic, social and environmental dimensions of coastal systems respond to change. We develop a set of composite indicators for each dimension, grounded empirically with reference to national geospatial datasets. A prototype Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) has been developed, which combines the dimensions and generates a quantitative resilience index. We apply it to England’s coastal hazard zone, capturing a range of different stakeholder perspectives using relative indicator weightings. The illustrative results demonstrate the practicality of formalising and quantifying resilience. To re-focus national policy around the stated desire of enhancing resilience to coastal flooding and erosion would require firm commitment from government to monitor progress towards resilience, requiring extension of the present risk-based approach, and a consensus methodology in which multiple (and sometimes conflicting) stakeholder values are explicitly considered. Such a transition may also challenge existing governance arrangements at national and local levels, requiring incentives for coastal managers to engage with and apply this new approach, more departmental integration and inter-agency cooperation. The proposed Coastal Resilience Model, with the tools to support planning and measure progress, have the potential to help enable this transition

Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai.

Coastal mega-cities will face increasing flood risk under the current protection standard because of future climate change. Previous studies seldom evaluate the comparative effectiveness of alternative options in reducing flood risk under the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall. Long-term planning to manage flood risk is further challenged by uncertainty in socioeconomic factors and contested stakeholder priorities. In this study, we conducted a knowledge co-creation process together with infrastructure experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders to develop an integrated framework for flexible testing of multiple flood-risk mitigation strategies under the condition of deep uncertainties. We implemented this framework to the reoccurrence scenarios in the 2050s of a record-breaking extreme rainfall event in central Shanghai. Three uncertain factors, including precipitation, urban rain island effect and the decrease of urban drainage capacity caused by land subsidence and sea level rise, are selected to build future extreme inundation scenarios in the case study. The risk-reduction performance and cost-effectiveness of all possible solutions are examined across different scenarios. The results show that drainage capacity decrease caused by sea-level rise and land subsidence will contribute the most to the rise of future inundation risk in central Shanghai. The combination of increased green area, improved drainage system, and the deep tunnel with a runoff absorbing capacity of 30% comes out to be the most favorable and robust solution which can reduce the future inundation risk by 85% (±8%). This research indicates that to conduct a successful synthesized trade-off analysis of alternative flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty is bound to be a knowledge co-creation process of scientists, decision makers, field experts, and other stakeholders

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers

Coastal megacities: application of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework to address environmental, social and economic issues

Dissertação de mest., Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010The purpose of this study was to elaborate on the role of coastal megacities in environmental degradation and their contribution to global climate change. Although only less than 4 percent of the total world’s population resides in coastal megacities, their impact on environment is significant due to their rapid development, high population densities and high consumption rate of their residents. This study was carried out by implementing a Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This analytical framework was chosen because of its potential to link the existing data, gathered from various previous studies, in causal relationship. In this text, coastal megacities have been defined as cities exceeding 10 million inhabitants, situated in “nearcoastal zone”. Their high rates of the consumption of food, water, space and energy were observed and linked to the high performance rates of related economic activities (industry, transportation, power generation, agriculture and water extraction). In many of the studied coastal megacities, deteriorated quality of air and water was perceived, which can, in combination with global warming, lead to health problems and economic and social disturbance among residents. The extent of problems varied between developing and developed countries, showing higher rates of population growth and certain harmful emissions in megacities of developing countries, as well as more problems regarding food and water shortages, sanitation, and health care support. Although certain projections predict slowdown of growth in most coastal megacities, their future impact on environment is still unclear due to the uncertainties regarding future climate change and trajectories of consumption patterns