Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest

Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Leaf senescence (LS) affects tree fitness, species distribution and ecosystem structure and functioning. The drivers of LS and the processes underlying it have been studied, but the studies have mainly focused on environmental cues and have mainly been based on statistical analyses using in situ data sets. Experimental investigation and field verification of the processes and drivers are thus urgently needed. We conducted a nutrient-addition experiment after a spring-warming experiment in which an ~40-day range of leaf-out (LO) dates was induced in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings. We found that both increased nutrient supply and advanced LO date significantly affected the timing of LS, but their effects were opposite, as the former delayed and the latter advanced the senescence. The effects of nutrient supply and LO interacted species specifically. In chestnut, the delay of senescence caused by fertilization increased with the delay of LO and was thus stronger for individuals that flushed late in the spring. On the contrary, in beech the delay of senescence caused by fertilization decreased with the delay of LO and was insignificant for individuals with the latest LO. The experimental findings for beech were confirmed with mature trees at a regional scale. The interactive effect between nutrients and LO on senescence may be associated with variable sensitivity to photoperiod, growth sink limitation and/or direct effect of foliar nutrition on the timing of senescence. Our novel results show that the interactive effects of LO and nutrient supply on the timing of LS should be further addressed experimentally in forthcoming studies. It would also be interesting to consider our results in the further development of phenological models used in assessing the effects of climatic change. The differences found in the present study between horse chestnut and beech suggest that the results found for one species cannot necessarily be generalized to other species, so studies with different temperate tree species are called fo

Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Leaf senescence (LS) affects tree fitness, species distribution and ecosystem structure and functioning. The drivers of LS and the processes underlying it have been studied, but the studies have mainly focused on environmental cues and have mainly been based on statistical analyses using in situ data sets. Experimental investigation and field verification of the processes and drivers are thus urgently needed. We conducted a nutrient-addition experiment after a spring-warming experiment in which an ~40-day range of leaf-out (LO) dates was induced in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings. We found that both increased nutrient supply and advanced LO date significantly affected the timing of LS, but their effects were opposite, as the former delayed and the latter advanced the senescence. The effects of nutrient supply and LO interacted species specifically. In chestnut, the delay of senescence caused by fertilization increased with the delay of LO and was thus stronger for individuals that flushed late in the spring. On the contrary, in beech the delay of senescence caused by fertilization decreased with the delay of LO and was insignificant for individuals with the latest LO. The experimental findings for beech were confirmed with mature trees at a regional scale. The interactive effect between nutrients and LO on senescence may be associated with variable sensitivity to photoperiod, growth sink limitation and/or direct effect of foliar nutrition on the timing of senescence. Our novel results show that the interactive effects of LO and nutrient supply on the timing of LS should be further addressed experimentally in forthcoming studies. It would also be interesting to consider our results in the further development of phenological models used in assessing the effects of climatic change. The differences found in the present study between horse chestnut and beech suggest that the results found for one species cannot necessarily be generalized to other species, so studies with different temperate tree species are called fo

Phenology Across Scales:An Intercontinental Analysis of Leaf-Out Dates in Temperate Deciduous Tree Communities

Aim: To quantify the intra-community variability of leaf-out (ICVLo) among dominant trees in temperate deciduous forests, assess its links with specific and phylogenetic diversity, identify its environmental drivers and deduce its ecological consequences with regard to radiation received and exposure to late frost.Location: Eastern North America (ENA) and Europe (EUR).Time Period: 2009–2022.Major Taxa Studied: Temperate deciduous forest trees.Methods: We developed an approach to quantify ICVLo through the analysis of RGB images taken from phenological cameras. We related ICVLo to species richness, phylogenetic diversity and environmental conditions. We quantified the intra-community variability of the amount of radiation received and of exposure to late frost.Results: Leaf-out occurred over a longer time interval in ENA than in EUR. The sensitivity of leaf-out to temperature was identical in both regions (−3.4 days per °C). The distributions of ICVLo were similar in EUR and ENA forests, despite the latter being more species-rich and phylogenetically diverse. In both regions, cooler conditions and an earlier occurrence of leaf-out resulted in higher ICVLo. ICVLo resulted in ca. 8% difference of radiation received from leaf-out to September among individual trees. Forest communities in ENA had shorter safety margins as regards the exposure to late frosts, and were actually more frequently exposed to late frosts.Main Conclusions: We conducted the first intercontinental analysis of the variability of leaf-out at the scale of tree communities. North American and European forests showed similar ICVLo, in spite of their differences in terms of species richness and phylogenetic diversity, highlighting the relevance of environmental controls on ICVLo. We quantified two ecological implications of ICVLo (difference in terms of radiation received and exposure to late frost), which should be explored in the context of ongoing climate change, which affects trees differently according to their phenological niche

Ecosystem transpiration and evaporation: Insights from three water flux partitioning methods across FLUXNET sites

We apply and compare three widely applicable methods for estimating ecosystem transpiration (T) from eddy covariance (EC) data across 251 FLUXNET sites globally. All three methods are based on the coupled water and carbon relationship, but they differ in assumptions and parameterizations. Intercomparison of the three daily T estimates shows high correlation among methods (R between .89 and .94), but a spread in magnitudes of T/ET (evapotranspiration) from 45% to 77%. When compared at six sites with concurrent EC and sap flow measurements, all three EC‐based T estimates show higher correlation to sap flow‐based T than EC‐based ET. The partitioning methods show expected tendencies of T/ET increasing with dryness (vapor pressure deficit and days since rain) and with leaf area index (LAI). Analysis of 140 sites with high‐quality estimates for at least two continuous years shows that T/ET variability was 1.6 times higher across sites than across years. Spatial variability of T/ET was primarily driven by vegetation and soil characteristics (e.g., crop or grass designation, minimum annual LAI, soil coarse fragment volume) rather than climatic variables such as mean/standard deviation of temperature or precipitation. Overall, T and T/ET patterns are plausible and qualitatively consistent among the different water flux partitioning methods implying a significant advance made for estimating and understanding T globally, while the magnitudes remain uncertain. Our results represent the first extensive EC data‐based estimates of ecosystem T permitting a data‐driven perspective on the role of plants’ water use for global water and carbon cycling in a changing climate

Ecosystem transpiration and evaporation : Insights from three water flux partitioning methods across FLUXNET sites

We apply and compare three widely applicable methods for estimating ecosystem transpiration (T) from eddy covariance (EC) data across 251 FLUXNET sites globally. All three methods are based on the coupled water and carbon relationship, but they differ in assumptions and parameterizations. Intercomparison of the three dailyTestimates shows high correlation among methods (Rbetween .89 and .94), but a spread in magnitudes ofT/ET (evapotranspiration) from 45% to 77%. When compared at six sites with concurrent EC and sap flow measurements, all three EC-basedTestimates show higher correlation to sap flow-basedTthan EC-based ET. The partitioning methods show expected tendencies ofT/ET increasing with dryness (vapor pressure deficit and days since rain) and with leaf area index (LAI). Analysis of 140 sites with high-quality estimates for at least two continuous years shows thatT/ET variability was 1.6 times higher across sites than across years. Spatial variability ofT/ET was primarily driven by vegetation and soil characteristics (e.g., crop or grass designation, minimum annual LAI, soil coarse fragment volume) rather than climatic variables such as mean/standard deviation of temperature or precipitation. Overall,TandT/ET patterns are plausible and qualitatively consistent among the different water flux partitioning methods implying a significant advance made for estimating and understandingTglobally, while the magnitudes remain uncertain. Our results represent the first extensive EC data-based estimates of ecosystemTpermitting a data-driven perspective on the role of plants' water use for global water and carbon cycling in a changing climate.Peer reviewe

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal