Mapping ecosystem functions and services in Eastern Europe using global-scale data sets

To assess future interactions between the environment and human well-being, spatially explicit ecosystem service models are needed. Currently available models mainly focus on provisioning services and do not distinguish changes in the functioning of the ecosystem (Ecosystem Functions – ESFs) and human use of such functions (Ecosystem Services – ESSs). This limits the insight on the impact of global change on human well-being. We present a set of models for assessing ESFs and ESSs. We mapped a diverse set of provisioning, regulating and cultural services, focusing on services that depend on the landscape structure. Services were mapped using global-scale data sets. We evaluated the models for a sample area comprising Eastern Europe. ESFs are mainly available in natural areas, while hotspots of ESS supply are found in areas with heterogeneous land cover. Here, natural land cover where ESFs are available is mixed with areas where the ESSs are utilized. We conclude that spatial patterns of several ESFs and ESSs can be mapped at global scale using existing global-scale data sets. As land-cover change has different impacts on different aspects of the interaction between humans and the environment, it is essential to clearly distinguish between ESFs and ESSs in integrated assessment studies

Habitat conversion and global avian biodiversity loss

The magnitude of the impacts of human activities on global biodiversity has been documented at several organizational levels. However, although there have been numerous studies of the effects of local-scale changes in land use (e.g. logging) on the abundance of groups of organisms, broader continental or global-scale analyses addressing the same basic issues remain largely wanting. None the less, changing patterns of land use, associated with the appropriation of increasing proportions of net primary productivity by the human population, seem likely not simply to have reduced the diversity of life, but also to have reduced the carrying capacity of the environment in terms of the numbers of other organisms that it can sustain. Here, we estimate the size of the existing global breeding bird population, and then make a first approximation as to how much this has been modified as a consequence of land-use changes wrought by human activities. Summing numbers across different land-use classes gives a best current estimate of a global population of less than 100 billion breeding bird individuals. Applying the same methodology to estimates of original land-use distributions suggests that conservatively this may represent a loss of between a fifth and a quarter of pre-agricultural bird numbers. This loss is shared across a range of temperate and tropical land-use types

Little impact of Three Gorges Dam on recent decadal lake decline across China's Yangtze Plain

The ubiquitous lakes across China's Yangtze Plain (YP) are indispensable freshwater resources sustaining ecosystems and socioeconomics for nearly half a billion people. Our recent survey revealed a widespread net decline in the total YP lake inundation area during 2000–2011 (a cumulative decrease of ∼10%), yet its mechanism remains contentious. Here, we uncover the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities including i) Yangtze flow and sediment alterations by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) and ii) human water consumption in agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors throughout the downstream Yangtze Basin. Results suggest that climate variability is the dominant driver of this decadal lake decline, whereas studied human activities, despite varying seasonal impacts that peak in fall, contribute marginal fraction (∼10–20% or less) to the interannual lake area decrease. Given that the TGD impacts on the total YP lake area and its seasonal variation are both under ∼5%, we also dismiss the speculation that the TGD might be responsible for evident downstream climate change by altering lake surface extent and thus open water evaporation. Nevertheless, anthropogenic impacts exhibited a strengthening trend during the past decade. Although the TGD has reached its full-capacity water regulation, the negative impacts of human water consumption and TGD-related net channel erosion are already comparable to that of TGD's flow regulation, and may continue to grow as crucial anthropogenic factors to future YP lake conservation

Little impact of Three Gorges Dam on recent decadal lake decline across China's Yangtze Plain

The ubiquitous lakes across China's Yangtze Plain (YP) are indispensable freshwater resources sustaining ecosystems and socioeconomics for nearly half a billion people. Our recent survey revealed a widespread net decline in the total YP lake inundation area during 2000–2011 (a cumulative decrease of ∼10%), yet its mechanism remains contentious. Here, we uncover the impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities including i) Yangtze flow and sediment alterations by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) and ii) human water consumption in agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors throughout the downstream Yangtze Basin. Results suggest that climate variability is the dominant driver of this decadal lake decline, whereas studied human activities, despite varying seasonal impacts that peak in fall, contribute marginal fraction (∼10–20% or less) to the interannual lake area decrease. Given that the TGD impacts on the total YP lake area and its seasonal variation are both under ∼5%, we also dismiss the speculation that the TGD might be responsible for evident downstream climate change by altering lake surface extent and thus open water evaporation. Nevertheless, anthropogenic impacts exhibited a strengthening trend during the past decade. Although the TGD has reached its full-capacity water regulation, the negative impacts of human water consumption and TGD-related net channel erosion are already comparable to that of TGD's flow regulation, and may continue to grow as crucial anthropogenic factors to future YP lake conservation

Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, we propose methods to evaluate the revised scenarios by using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and of climate. A further test involves carbon-cycle simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice-core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, we outline a protocol for using the improved LULC reconstructions in palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in order to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations

The global carbon budget 1959-2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future