Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices

A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the spatial bioclimatic probability distribution of each bioclimatic index, which allows researchers to obtain the probability of each location belonging to different bioclimates. The methodology is evaluated on two indices in the Island of Cyprus

Do Spanish IPO firms fit the continental European model for going public?

Este trabajo analiza los determinantes de la decisión de salir a bolsa en el mercado español de una muestra de empresas no financieras que llevaron a cabo una oferta pública inicial (OPI) de acciones en el período 1997-2013. Para ello, empleamos una serie de características relacionadas con las empresas y el entorno económico y los métodos de regresión logit para obtener el modelo que mejor se ajusta a nuestros datos, utilizando como muestra de control las empresas que podrían haber salido a bolsa en el mismo período, pero optaron por no hacerlo. En España, las empresas que salieron a bolsa se caracterizaron por ser relativamente más grandes y más arriesgadas que las que no lo hicieron. Además, sus OPI se produjeron después de un período de inversión y crecimiento, aunque no parece que tuvieran la intención de reequilibrar su estructura financiera o reducir sus costes financieros. Asimismo, nuestros resultados son robustos a diferentes análisis de sensibilidad. La evidencia obtenida sugiere que las compañías españolas que realizaron una OPI no se ajustan al modelo de Europa continental para salir a bolsa. Por lo tanto, parece que las diferencias entre el modelo europeo continental y el modelo anglosajón se están desvaneciendo. This paper analyses the determinants of the going public decision of the non-financial firms that were listed in the Spanish Continuous Market through an Initial Public Offering of shares (IPO) in the period 1997-2013. We employ series of characteristics related to the firms and the economic environment and logit regression methods in order to find the model that best fits the firms that went public, using the firms that could have gone public in the same period, but opted not to, as a control sample. In Spain, the firms that went public were characterized by being relatively larger and riskier than those that did not. In addition, their IPOs came after a period of investment and growth, although it does not appear that they intended to rebalance their financial structure or reduce their financial costs. Likewise, our results are robust across different sensitivity analyses. Our results suggest that Spanish IPO firms do not fit the Continental European model for going public. Therefore, it seems that differences between the Continental European and the Anglo-Saxon model are fading

Modelling spatially sampled proportion processes​​

Many ecological processes are measured as proportions and are spatially sampled. In all these cases the standard procedure has long been the transformation of proportional data with the arcsine square root or logit transformation, without considering the spatial correlation in any way. This paper presents a robust regression model to analyse this kind of data using a beta regression and including a spatially correlated term within the Bayesian framework. As a practical example, we apply the proposed approach to a spatio-temporally sampled fishery discard dataset

¿Existen demasiadas sucursales bancarias en España? Un análisis para el periodo 1999-2011

Tras un largo periodo de intensa expansión territorial que culminó en 2008, la reestructuración del sector bancario español ha llevado a que el número de sucursales haya pasado de 45.000 a poco más de 28.000 en menos de una década. Las implicaciones de esta tendencia son notables, pues el acceso a la oficina física sigue siendo clave en comunidades remotas y/o desfavorecidas, además de existir un impacto todavía no medido en términos de banca relacional. El objetivo del trabajo consiste en determinar, a través de un modelo estadístico, si los fenómenos de over-branching y under-branching, esto es, exceso o escasez de oficinas, han estado presentes en el sector bancario español entre 1999 y 2011. La respuesta indicaría que la existencia de dichos fenómenos depende del tipo de entidad considerada (banco, caja o cooperativa), suponiendo la reestructuración del sector cajas de ahorros una amenaza para el acceso a los servicios bancarios en algunas regiones

Paramphistomosis bovina en Galicia

Las paramphistomosis son infecciones producidas por trematodos de la familia Paramphistomidae Fischoeder, 1901, que incluye diferentes géneros y especies que parasitan el tracto gastrointestinal de rumiantes. Los animales se infectan al ingerir pastos contaminados con metacercarias producidas tras el enquistamiento de las fases larvarias emitidas por moluscos que actúan como hospedadores intermediarios. En Galicia, donde también se han detectado explotaciones con altas prevalencias de infección, se desconocían aspectos básicos sobre la epidemiología de estas parasitosis. En consecuencia, se ha realizado un amplio estudio en el que se han abordado muchos aspectos

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Factores de riesgo en las fracturas de extremidad proximal del húmero

Las fracturas de húmero proximal se encuentran entre las principales fracturas atribuibles a la osteoporosis. Muchos estudios se han realizado para profundizar en los factores de riesgo de las fracturas osteoporóticas, pero la gran mayoría se han focalizado en las fracturas de cadera, sin embargo, poco se conoce de los factores de riesgo de otras fracturas osteoporóticas. El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar los factores de riesgo de fractura osteoporótica de la extremidad superior del húmero, comparándolos con los factores de riesgo conocidos para la fractura de cadera. Se ha valorado además, los niveles de vitamina D como factor de riesgo. Material y método. Se realizó un estudio prospectivo a 45 pacientes que sufrieron una fractura de húmero proximal, valorando los factores de riesgo en 6 bloques: factores personales, de fragilidad ósea, de riesgo de caída, patología concomitante, mecanismo de lesión, y parámetros analíticos. Resultados y conclusiones. El paciente tipo según los resultados obtenidos es una persona de sexo femenino, de entre 70 y 80 años, no precisamente obesa, con alto grado de independencia, que no suele sufrir caídas, y sin importantes minusvalías que supongan una incapacidad física ni mental. Se realizaron comparativas posteriores de los niveles de vitamina D, calcio y fósforo. No se encontraron diferencias de niveles de vitamina D respecto al grupo control, pero sí discretas diferencias en pacientes que tomaban complejos vitamínicos.Proximal humerus fractures are among the main fractures attributable to osteoporosis. Many studies have been performed to gain insight into the risk factors for osteoporotic fractures, but most have focused on hip fractures. However, little is known about osteoporotic factors. The aim of this study is to investigate on the risk factors for osteoporotic fracture of the upper extremity of the humerus, comparing them with the known risk factors for hip fracture. Vitamin D levels have been also assessed as possible risk factor. Material and methods.We performed a prospective study of 45 patients who suffered a proximal humerus fracture, assessing risk factors in 6 groups: personal factors, bone fragility, risk of falling, concomitant pathology, mechanism of injury, and analytical parameters. Results and conclusions. The standard patient according to our results is a woman, between 70 and 80 years, not necessarily obese, with a high degree of independence, which rarely falls, and without any major mental or physical disability. Comparisons were made with the levels of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. There were no differences in levels of vitamin D in the control group, but slight differences in patients taking vitamin supplements

Teachers' network and digital repository of educational resources: A history of contemporary capitalism I. The crisis of the liberal State and the first globalization through filmic, literary and aesthetic sources.

Se trata de crear un repositorio digital de apoyo a la docencia virtual, con contribuciones innovadoras en el empleo de fuentes artísticas y culturales para el estudio de la crisis del Estado liberal y de la primera globalización (1920-1930).This project aims to create a digital repository to support virtual teaching, with innovative contributions in the use of artistic and cultural sources for the study of the crisis of the liberal State and the first globalization (1920-1930).Depto. de Filosofía y SociedadFac. de FilosofíaFALSEUCMsubmitte

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AimThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery.MethodsThis was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin.ResultsOverall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P ConclusionOne in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease