A new wildland fire danger index for a Mediterranean region and some validation aspects

Wildland fires are the main cause of tree mortality in Mediterranean Europe and a major threat to Spanish forests. This paper focuses on the design and validation of a new wildland fire index especially adapted to a Mediterranean Spanish region. The index considers ignition and spread danger components. Indicators of natural and human ignition agents, historical occurrence, fuel conditions and fire spread make up the hierarchical structure of the index. Multi-criteria methods were used to incorporate experts¿ opinion in the process of weighting the indicators and to carry out the aggregation of components into the final index, which is used to map the probability of daily fire occurrence on a 0.5-km grid. Generalised estimating equation models, which account for possible correlated responses, were used to validate the index, accommodating its values onto a larger scale because historical records of daily fire occurrence, which constitute the dependent variable, are referred to cells on a 10-km grid. Validation results showed good index performance, good fit of the logistic model and acceptable discrimination power. Therefore, the index will improve the ability of fire prevention services in daily allocation of resources.The authors acknowledge the support received from the Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research project Modelling and Optimisation Techniques for a Sustainable Development, Ref. EC02008-05895-C02-01/ECON.Vicente López, FJD.; Crespo Abril, F. (2012). A new wildland fire danger index for a Mediterranean region and some validation aspects. 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Landscape - wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management

ReviewEvery year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gapsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

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