Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition

This paper examines the twin deficits hypothesis in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand (ASEAN-4 countries). The major findings of this paper are: (1) Long run relationships are detected between budget and current account deficits. (2) We found that the Keynesian reasoning fits well for Thailand since a unidirectional relationship exists which runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. For Indonesia the reverse causation (current account targeting) is detected while the empirical results indicate that a bidirectional pattern of causality exists for Malaysia and the Philippines. (3) We also found support for an indirect causal relationship that runs from budget deficit to higher interest rates, and higher interest rates lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate and this leads to the widening of current account deficit. (4) The results of the variance decompositions and impulse response functions suggest that the consequences of large budget and current account deficits become noticeable only over the long run.Twin deficits, Cointegration, Variance Decomposition

Upregulation of the proinflammatory cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-1 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 in rats' intestinal anastomotic wound healing—Does it matter?

SummaryBackgroundThe proinflammatory cytokines and growth-promoting factor are essential components of the wound healing process. We hypothesized that under healthy conditions, faster healing of intestinal anastomotic wound is due to an early upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines, cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-1 (CINC-1) that is followed by a quicker upregulation of homeostatic chemokine, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) and late upregulation of transforming growth factor (TGF-β).MethodsWe characterized the time course of CINC-1, MCP-1 and TGF-β release at four wounds (skin, muscle, small bowel, and colonic anastomosis) after surgery on 38 juvenile male Sprague Dawley rats. The tissue samples of each site were harvested at 0 (control), 1, 3, 5, 7 and 14 days postoperatively (n = 6–8/group) and analyzed by ELISA kits for CINC-1, MCP-1 and TGF-β.ResultsCINC-1 expression peaked earlier in muscle and colonic wounds when compared to skin and small bowel. MCP-1 levels were elevated early in skin and muscle wounds, but later expression of MCP-1 was shown in colonic wounds. TGF-β levels were unchanged in all wound sites.ConclusionAn earlier peak in CINC-1 levels and later expression of MCP-1 were seen in colonic wounds, but no significant increase in TGF-β levels was observed. These findings support the early healing process in intestinal anastomotic wounds

Air Pollution Levels by Re-suspended and Airborne Dust Due to Traffic Movement at the Main High Traffic Crossroads of Hilla City, Iraq

يتضمن هذا البحث عمليه مراقبه وتقييم لمستويات تلوث الهواء الناتج عن الغبار المتصاعد والمحمول بالهواء بسبب حركه المرور في تقاطعات الطرق الأكثر ازدحاما في مدينه ألحله وهي تقاطع نادر وتقاطع ألثوره. إن الغبار المتصاعد هو واحد من أكثر مصادر تلوث الهواء المساهم في التلوث الجوي الكلي وخصوصا عندما تكون الطرق غير مبلطه أو تحت الصيانة وبحمل مروري عالي مثل مايحصل ألان في تقاطع نادر الذي هو تقاطع رئيسي غير مبلط حاليا كونه تحت عمليه صيانة لأقامه مجسر عليه. تم إيجاد تراكير الدقائق العالقة الكلية للموقعين بواسطة جهاز اخذ العينات المحمول خلال ساعة الازدحام المروري وفي جو مشمس ومعتدل ولأربعه شهور( كانون الأول 2011, شباط 2012, نيسان 2012, أيار 2012 ). قد أكدت النتائج مساهمه الطرق غير ألمبلطه في تلوث الهواء. بينت النتائج أن معدل مستويات الدقائق العالقة في تقاطع نادر أعلى من معدلاتها في تقاطع ألثوره طوال فتره الدراسة حيث كان اقل مستوى للدقائق العالقة في تقاطع نادر(5676,67 مايكرو غرام\م3 ) هو أعلى من أعلى مستوى للدقائق العالقة في تقاطع ألثوره (4096,41 مايكرو غرام\م3 ). كما بينت النتائج أن تركيز الغبار المتصاعد ألمقاسه في هذه الدراسة (426.06-9348.95) مايكرو غرام\م3 هي أعلى بكثير من الحدود المسموحه في المواصفات ألقياسيه لوكالة حماية البيئة الامريكيه.This research includes a monitoring and an evaluation of the air pollution levels generated by the re-suspended and airborne dust due to traffic movement at the main busy crossroads of Hilla City, Nader Crossroad and Al-Thowra Crossroad, Iraq. The re-suspended dust is one of the most important contributors towards overall atmospheric pollution, especially when the roads are unpaved or under maintenance with high traffic load such as Nader Crossroad, which was under maintenance to construct a bridge on it. The concentrations of the total suspended particulate matters were determined at the two locations using portable air sampler during traffic rush hour on sunny moderated weekdays for four months, December 2011, February 2012, April 2012, and May 2012. The results have confirmed the contribution of the unpaved roads in air pollution. The results showed that the average TSP levels at Nader Crossroad was higher than the average TSP levels at Al-Thowra Crossroad during the total period of the study in which the minimum TSP level at Nader Crossroad was 5676.67 μg/m3, which was higher than the maximum TSP level at Al-Thowra Crossroad, 4096.41 μg/m3. In addition, the re-suspended dust concentrations that were measured in this study and ranged from 426.06 to 9348.95 μg/m3 are much higher than the American Environmental Protection Agency acceptable limits of national ambient air quality standards for the particulate matter. &nbsp

Novel quinazoline-based sulfonamide derivative (3D) induces apoptosis in colorectal cancer by inhibiting JAK2–STAT3 pathway

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major worldwide health problem owing to its high prevalence and mortality rate. Developments in screening, prevention, biomarker, personalized therapies and chemotherapy have improved detection and treatment. However, despite these advances, many patients with advanced metastatic tumors still succumb to the disease. New anticancer agents are needed for treating advanced stage CRC as most of the deaths occur due to cancer metastasis. A recently developed novel sulfonamide derivative 4-((2-(4-(dimethylamino) phenyl)quinazolin-4-yl)amino)benzenesulfonamide (3D) has shown potent antitumor effect; however, the mechanism underlying the antitumor effect remains unknown. Materials and methods: 3D-mediated inhibition on cell viability was evaluated by MTT and real-time cell proliferation was measured by xCelligence RTDP instrument. Western blotting was used to measure pro-apoptotic, anti-apoptotic proteins and JAK2-STAT3 phosphorylation. Flow cytometry was used to measure ROS production and apoptosis. Results: Our study revealed that 3D treatment significantly reduced the viability of human CRC cells HT-29 and SW620. Furthermore, 3D treatment induced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in human CRC cells. Confirming our observation, N-acetylcysteine significantly inhibited apoptosis. This is further evidenced by the induction of p53 and Bax; release of cytochrome c; activation of caspase-9, caspase-7 and caspase-3; and cleavage of PARP in 3D-treated cells. This compound was found to have a significant effect on the inhibition of antiapoptotic proteins Bcl2 and BclxL. The results further demonstrate that 3D inhibits JAK2–STAT3 pathway by decreasing the constitutive and IL-6-induced phosphorylation of STAT3. 3D also decreases STAT3 target genes such as cyclin D1 and survivin. Furthermore, a combination study of 3D with doxorubicin (Dox) also showed more potent effects than single treatment of Dox in the inhibition of cell viability. Conclusion: Taken together, these findings indicate that 3D induces ROS-mediated apoptosis and inhibits JAK2–STAT3 signaling in CRC

A Method for Predicting Long-term Municipal Water Demands Under Climate Change

The accurate forecast of water demand is challenging for water utilities, specifically when considering the implications of climate change. As such, this is the first study that focuses on finding associations between monthly climate factors and municipal water consumption, using baseline data collected between 1980 and 2010. The aim of the study was to investigate the reliability and capability of a combination of techniques, including Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to accurately predict long-term, monthly water demands. The principal findings of this research are as follows: a) SSA is a powerful method when applied to remove the impact of socio-economic variables and noise, and to determine a stochastic signal for long-term water consumption time series; b) ANN performed better when optimised using the Lightning Search Algorithm (LSA-ANN) compared with other approaches used in previous studies, i.e. hybrid Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO-ANN) and Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA-ANN); c) the proposed LSA-ANN methodology was able to produce a highly accurate and robust model of water demand, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.96 between observed and predicted water demand when using a validation dataset, and a very small root mean square error of 0.025

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children <18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p<0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p<0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p<0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic