Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon (C), water, and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature- to water-limited by the end of the century

Updated respiration routines alter spatio-temporal patterns of carbon cycling in a global land surface model

We updated the routines used to estimate leaf maintenance respiration (MR) in the Energy Land Model (ELM) using a comprehensive global respiration data base. The updated algorithm includes a temperature acclimating base rate, an updated instantaneous temperature response, and new plant functional type specific parameters. The updated MR algorithm resulted in a very large increase in global MR of 16.1 Pg (38%), but the signal was not geographically uniform. The increase was concentrated in the tropics and humid warm-temperate forests. The increase in MR led to large but proportionally smaller decreases in global net primary production (19%) and in average global leaf area index (15%). The effect on global gross primary production (GPP) was a more modest 5.7 Pg (4%). A detailed site level analysis also demonstrated a wide range of effects the updated algorithm can have on the seasonal cycle of GPP. Output from the updated and old models did not differ markedly in how closely they matched a suite of benchmarks. Given the substantial impact on the land surface carbon cycle, a neutral influence on model benchmarks, and better alignment with empirical evidence, an MR algorithm similar to the one presented here should be adopted into ELM

Implications of improved representations of plant respiration in a changing climate

Land-atmosphere exchanges influence atmospheric CO2. Emphasis has been on describing photosynthetic CO2 uptake, but less on respiration losses. New global datasets describe upper canopy dark respiration (R d) and temperature dependencies. This allows characterisation of baseline R d, instantaneous temperature responses and longer-term thermal acclimation effects. Here we show the global implications of these parameterisations with a global gridded land model. This model aggregates R d to whole-plant respiration R p, driven with meteorological forcings spanning uncertainty across climate change models. For pre-industrial estimates, new baseline R d increases R p and especially in the tropics. Compared to new baseline, revised instantaneous response decreases R p for mid-latitudes, while acclimation lowers this for the tropics with increases elsewhere. Under global warming, new R d estimates amplify modelled respiration increases, although partially lowered by acclimation. Future measurements will refine how R d aggregates to whole-plant respiration. Our analysis suggests R p could be around 30% higher than existing estimates.C.H. acknowledges the NERC CEH National Capability fund. We acknowledge the many climate research centres that contributed GCM outputs in to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) database. The support of the Australian Research Council to O.K.A. and P.M. (DP130101252, CE140100008, FT0991448, FT110100457) is acknowledged, as are awards DE-FG02-07ER64456 from the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research and DEB-1234162 from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research Program (to P.B.R.); and National Science Foundation International Polar Year Grant (to K.L.G.). L.M.M. acknowledges the support of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) project grant code NE/ J010057/1

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusing on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration - specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 ∼50×50-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways - without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model's predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means

Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits

• Leaf dark respiration (Rdark) is an important yet poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle. Given this, we analyzed a new global database of Rdark and associated leaf traits. • Data for 899 species were compiled from 100 sites (from the Arctic to the tropics). Several woody and nonwoody plant functional types (PFTs) were represented. Mixed-effects models were used to disentangle sources of variation in Rdark. • Area-based Rdark at the prevailing average daily growth temperature (T) of each site increased only twofold from the Arctic to the tropics, despite a 20°C increase in growing T (8–28°C). By contrast, Rdark at a standard T (25°C, Rdark25) was threefold higher in the Arctic than in the tropics, and twofold higher at arid than at mesic sites. Species and PFTs at cold sites exhibited higher Rdark25 at a given photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax25) or leaf nitrogen concentration ([N]) than species at warmer sites. Rdark25 values at any given Vcmax25 or [N] were higher in herbs than in woody plants. • The results highlight variation in Rdark among species and across global gradients in T and aridity. In addition to their ecological significance, the results provide a framework for improving representation of Rdark in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land-surface components of Earth system models (ESMs)

Incorporating temperature-sensitive Q10 and foliar respiration acclimation algorithms modifies modeled ecosystem responses to global change

Evidence suggests that respiration acclimation (RA) to temperature in plants can have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon balance. To assess the influence of RA on ecosystem response variables in the presence of global change drivers, we incorporated a temperature-sensitive Q10 of respiration and foliar basal RA into the ecosystem model PnET-CN. We examined the new algorithms' effects on modeled net primary production (NPP), total canopy foliage mass, foliar nitrogen concentration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem respiration/gross primary production ratios. This latter ratio more closely matched eddy covariance long-term data when RA was incorporated in the model than when not. Averaged across four boreal ecotone sites and three forest types at year 2100, the enhancement of NPP in response to the combination of rising [CO2] and warming was 9% greater when RA algorithms were used, relative to responses using fixed respiration parameters. The enhancement of NPP response to global change was associated with concomitant changes in foliar nitrogen and foliage mass. In addition, impacts of RA algorithms on modeled responses of NEE closely paralleled impacts on NPP. These results underscore the importance of incorporating temperature-sensitive Q 10 and basal RA algorithms into ecosystem models. Given the current evidence that atmospheric [CO2] and surface temperature will continue to rise, and that ecosystem responses to those changes appear to be modified by RA, which is a common phenotypic adjustment, the potential for misleading results increases if models fail to incorporate RA into their carbon balance calculations

Influence of disturbance on temperate forest productivity

Climate, tree species traits, and soil fertility are key controls on forest productivity. However, in most forest ecosystems, natural and human disturbances, such as wind throw, fire, and harvest, can also exert important and lasting direct and indirect influence over productivity. We used an ecosystem model, PnET-CN, to examine how disturbance type, intensity, and frequency influence net primary production (NPP) across a range of forest types from Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA. We assessed the importance of past disturbances on NPP, net N mineralization, foliar N, and leaf area index at 107 forest stands of differing types (aspen, jack pine, northern hardwood, black spruce) and disturbance history (fire, harvest) by comparing model simulations with observations. The model reasonably predicted differences among forest types in productivity, foliar N, leaf area index, and net N mineralization. Model simulations that included past disturbances minimally improved predictions compared to simulations without disturbance, suggesting the legacy of past disturbances played a minor role in influencing current forest productivity rates. Modeled NPP was more sensitive to the intensity of soil removal during a disturbance than the fraction of stand mortality or wood removal. Increasing crown fire frequency resulted in lower NPP, particularly for conifer forest types with longer leaf life spans and longer recovery times. These findings suggest that, over long time periods, moderate frequency disturbances are a relatively less important control on productivity than climate, soil, and species traits

Robustness of trait connections across environmental gradients and growth forms

Aim Plant trait databases often contain traits that are correlated, but for whom direct (undirected statistical dependency) and indirect (mediated by other traits) connections may be confounded. The confounding of correlation and connection hinders our understanding of plant strategies, and how these vary among growth forms and climate zones. We identified the direct and indirect connections across plant traits relevant to competition, resource acquisition and reproductive strategies using a global database and explored whether connections within and between traits from different tissue types vary across climates and growth forms. Location Global. Major taxa studied Plants. Time period Present. Methods We used probabilistic graphical models and a database of 10 plant traits (leaf area, specific leaf area, mass‐ and area‐based leaf nitrogen and phosphorous content, leaf life span, plant height, stem specific density and seed mass) with 16,281 records to describe direct and indirect connections across woody and non‐woody plants across tropical, temperate, arid, cold and polar regions. Results Trait networks based on direct connections are sparser than those based on correlations. Land plants had high connectivity across traits within and between tissue types; leaf life span and stem specific density shared direct connections with all other traits. For both growth forms, two groups of traits form modules of more highly connected traits; one related to resource acquisition, the other to plant architecture and reproduction. Woody species had higher trait network modularity in polar compared to temperate and tropical climates, while non‐woody species did not show significant differences in modularity across climate regions. Main conclusions Plant traits are highly connected both within and across tissue types, yet traits segregate into persistent modules of traits. Variation in the modularity of trait networks suggests that trait connectivity is shaped by prevailing environmental conditions and demonstrates that plants of different growth forms use alternative strategies to cope with local conditions.National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: IIS‐1563950; Advanced Research Projects Agency ‐ Energy, Grant/Award Number: DE‐SL0012677; H2020 European Research Council, Grant/Award Number: ERC‐SyG‐2013‐610028 IMBALANCE‐P; University of Minnesota, Grant/Award Number: CE140100008, 226299, 19‐14‐00038 and 22; Australian Research Council, Grant/Award Number: CE140100008; FP7; European Research Council; Russian Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: # 19‐14‐0003

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusing on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration - specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 ∼50×50-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways - without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model's predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means.This research was supported as part of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (Grant DE-SC0012677 to P.B.R. and A.B.). O.K.A. acknowledges the support of the Australian Research Council (CE140100008). This research was also funded by programs from the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (Grant DEB-1234162) and Long-Term Research in Environmental Biology (Grant DEB-1242531). A.B., F.F., and P.B.R. acknowledge funding from NSF Grant IIS-1563950. P.B.R. also acknowledges support from two University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment discovery grants. This study has been supported by the TRY initiative on plant traits (www.try-db.org). The TRY database is hosted at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Jena, Germany) and supported by DIVERSITAS/Future Earth, the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, and the EU H2020 project BACI (Grant 640176). B.B. acknowledges a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) independent research fellowship NE/M019160/1. J.P. acknowledges the financial support from the European Research Council Synergy Grant ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P, the Spanish Government Grant CGL2013-48074-P, and the Catalan Government Grant SGR 2014-274. B.B.-L. was supported by the Earth System Modeling program of the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. K.K. acknowledges the contribution of the Wageningen University and Research Investment theme Resilience for the project Resilient Forest (KB-29-009-003). P.M. acknowledges support from ARC Grant FT110100457 and NERC Grant NE/F002149/1. W.H. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41473068) and the “Light of West China” Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences