The Embedding Problem for Markov Models of Nucleotide Substitution

10.1371/journal.pone.0069187PLoS ONE87-POLN

Identification and reconstruction of low-energy electrons in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector

Measurements of electrons from νe interactions are crucial for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) neutrino oscillation program, as well as searches for physics beyond the standard model, supernova neutrino detection, and solar neutrino measurements. This article describes the selection and reconstruction of low-energy (Michel) electrons in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector. ProtoDUNE-SP is one of the prototypes for the DUNE far detector, built and operated at CERN as a charged particle test beam experiment. A sample of low-energy electrons produced by the decay of cosmic muons is selected with a purity of 95%. This sample is used to calibrate the low-energy electron energy scale with two techniques. An electron energy calibration based on a cosmic ray muon sample uses calibration constants derived from measured and simulated cosmic ray muon events. Another calibration technique makes use of the theoretically well-understood Michel electron energy spectrum to convert reconstructed charge to electron energy. In addition, the effects of detector response to low-energy electron energy scale and its resolution including readout electronics threshold effects are quantified. Finally, the relation between the theoretical and reconstructed low-energy electron energy spectra is derived, and the energy resolution is characterized. The low-energy electron selection presented here accounts for about 75% of the total electron deposited energy. After the addition of lost energy using a Monte Carlo simulation, the energy resolution improves from about 40% to 25% at 50 MeV. These results are used to validate the expected capabilities of the DUNE far detector to reconstruct low-energy electrons

Genome-wide meta-analysis of cerebral white matter hyperintensities in patients with stroke.

OBJECTIVE: For 3,670 stroke patients from the United Kingdom, United States, Australia, Belgium, and Italy, we performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of white matter hyperintensity volumes (WMHV) on data imputed to the 1000 Genomes reference dataset to provide insights into disease mechanisms. METHODS: We first sought to identify genetic associations with white matter hyperintensities in a stroke population, and then examined whether genetic loci previously linked to WMHV in community populations are also associated in stroke patients. Having established that genetic associations are shared between the 2 populations, we performed a meta-analysis testing which associations with WMHV in stroke-free populations are associated overall when combined with stroke populations. RESULTS: There were no associations at genome-wide significance with WMHV in stroke patients. All previously reported genome-wide significant associations with WMHV in community populations shared direction of effect in stroke patients. In a meta-analysis of the genome-wide significant and suggestive loci (p < 5 × 10(-6)) from community populations (15 single nucleotide polymorphisms in total) and from stroke patients, 6 independent loci were associated with WMHV in both populations. Four of these are novel associations at the genome-wide level (rs72934505 [NBEAL1], p = 2.2 × 10(-8); rs941898 [EVL], p = 4.0 × 10(-8); rs962888 [C1QL1], p = 1.1 × 10(-8); rs9515201 [COL4A2], p = 6.9 × 10(-9)). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic associations with WMHV are shared in otherwise healthy individuals and patients with stroke, indicating common genetic susceptibility in cerebral small vessel disease.Funding for collection, genotyping, and analysis of stroke samples was provided by Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium-2, a functional genomics grant from the Wellcome Trust (DNA-Lacunar), the Stroke Association (DNA-lacunar), the Intramural Research Program of National Institute of Ageing (Massachusetts General Hospital [MGH] and Ischemic Stroke Genetics Study [ISGS]), National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (Siblings With Ischemic Stroke Study, ISGS, and MGH), the American Heart Association/Bugher Foundation Centers for Stroke Prevention Research (MGH), Deane Institute for Integrative Study of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke (MGH), National Health and Medical Research Council (Australian Stroke Genetics Collaborative), and Italian Ministry of Health (Milan). Additional support for sample collection came from the Medical Research Council, National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre and Acute Vascular Imaging Centre (Oxford), Wellcome Trust and Binks Trust (Edinburgh), and Vascular Dementia Research Foundation (Munich). MT is supported by a project grant from the Stroke Association (TSA 2013/01). HSM is supported by an NIHR Senior Investigator award. HSM and SB are supported by the NIHR Cambridge University Hospitals Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre. VT and RL are supported by grants from FWO Flanders. PR holds NIHR and Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Awards. PAS is supported by an MRC Fellowship. CML’s research is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London, and the BRC for Mental Health at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wolters Kluwer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1212/WNL.000000000000226

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified