On the automatic identification of unobserved components models

Automatic identi cation of time series models is a necessity once the big data era has come and is staying among us. This has become obvious for many companies and public entities that has passed from a crafted analysis of each individual problem to handle a tsunami of information that has to be processed e ciently, online and in record time. Automatic identi cation tools has never been tried out on Unobserved Components models (UC). This chapter shows how information criteria, such as Akaike's or Schwarz's, are rather useful for model selection within the UC family. The di culty lies, however, on choosing an appropriate and as general as possible set of models to search in. A set too narrow would render poor forecast accuracy, while a set too wide would be highly time consuming. The forecasting results suggest that UC models are powerful potential forecasting competitors to other well-known methods. Though there are several pieces of software available for UC modeling, this is the rst implementation of an automatic algorithm for this class of models, to the best of the authors knowledge

Atypical Mg-poor Milky Way Field Stars with Globular Cluster Second-generation-like Chemical Patterns

We report the peculiar chemical abundance patterns of 11 atypical Milky Way (MW) field red giant stars observed by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE). These atypical giants exhibit strong Al and N enhancements accompanied by C and Mg depletions, strikingly similar to those observed in the so-called second-generation (SG) stars of globular clusters (GCs). Remarkably, we find low Mg abundances ([Mg/Fe] < 0.0) together with strong Al and N overabundances in the majority (5/7) of the metal-rich ([Fe/H] gsim −1.0) sample stars, which is at odds with actual observations of SG stars in Galactic GCs of similar metallicities. This chemical pattern is unique and unprecedented among MW stars, posing urgent questions about its origin. These atypical stars could be former SG stars of dissolved GCs formed with intrinsically lower abundances of Mg and enriched Al (subsequently self-polluted by massive AGB stars) or the result of exotic binary systems. We speculate that the stars Mg-deficiency as well as the orbital properties suggest that they could have an extragalactic origin. This discovery should guide future dedicated spectroscopic searches of atypical stellar chemical patterns in our Galaxy, a fundamental step forward to understanding the Galactic formation and evolution

Convergence of marine megafauna movement patterns in coastal and open oceans

The extent of increasing anthropogenic impacts on large marine vertebrates partly depends on the animals’ movement patterns. Effective conservation requires identification of the key drivers of movement including intrinsic properties and extrinsic constraints associated with the dynamic nature of the environments the animals inhabit. However, the relative importance of intrinsic versus extrinsic factors remains elusive. We analyze a global dataset of ∼2.8 million locations from >2,600 tracked individuals across 50 marine vertebrates evolutionarily separated by millions of years and using different locomotion modes (fly, swim, walk/paddle). Strikingly, movement patterns show a remarkable convergence, being strongly conserved across species and independent of body length and mass, despite these traits ranging over 10 orders of magnitude among the species studied. This represents a fundamental difference between marine and terrestrial vertebrates not previously identified, likely linked to the reduced costs of locomotion in water. Movement patterns were primarily explained by the interaction between species-specific traits and the habitat(s) they move through, resulting in complex movement patterns when moving close to coasts compared with more predictable patterns when moving in open oceans. This distinct difference may be associated with greater complexity within coastal microhabitats, highlighting a critical role of preferred habitat in shaping marine vertebrate global movements. Efforts to develop understanding of the characteristics of vertebrate movement should consider the habitat(s) through which they move to identify how movement patterns will alter with forecasted severe ocean changes, such as reduced Arctic sea ice cover, sea level rise, and declining oxygen content

A Shigella boydii bacteriophage which resembles Salmonella phage ViI

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lytic bacteriophages have been applied successfully to control the growth of various foodborne pathogens. Sequencing of their genomes is considered as an important preliminary step to ensure their safety prior to food applications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The lytic bacteriophage, ΦSboM-AG3, targets the important foodborne pathogen, <it>Shigella</it>. It is morphologically similar to phage ViI of <it>Salmonella enterica </it>serovar Typhi and a series of phages of <it>Acinetobacter calcoaceticus </it>and <it>Rhizobium meliloti</it>. The complete genome of ΦSboM-AG3 was determined to be 158 kb and was terminally redundant and circularly permuted. Two hundred and sixteen open reading frames (ORFs) were identified and annotated, most of which displayed homology to proteins of <it>Salmonella </it>phage ViI. The genome also included four genes specifying tRNAs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first time that a Vi-specific phage for <it>Shigella </it>has been described. There is no evidence for the presence of virulence and lysogeny-associated genes. In conclusion, the genome analysis of ΦSboM-AG3 indicates that this phage can be safely used for biocontrol purposes.</p

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112