Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP219

Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America

Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different “pathways” of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10–80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041–2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081–2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas

More than 50 years of successful continuous temperature section measurements by the global expendable bathythermograph network, its integrability, societal benefits, and future

The first eXpendable BathyThermographs (XBTs) were deployed in the 1960s in the North Atlantic Ocean. In 1967 XBTs were deployed in operational mode to provide a continuous record of temperature profile data along repeated transects, now known as the Global XBT Network. The current network is designed to monitor ocean circulation and boundary current variability, basin-wide and trans-basin ocean heat transport, and global and regional heat content. The ability of the XBT Network to systematically map the upper ocean thermal field in multiple basins with repeated trans-basin sections at eddy-resolving scales remains unmatched today and cannot be reproduced at present by any other observing platform. Some repeated XBT transects have now been continuously occupied for more than 30 years, providing an unprecedented long-term climate record of temperature, and geostrophic velocity profiles that are used to understand variability in ocean heat content (OHC), sea level change, and meridional ocean heat transport. Here, we present key scientific advances in understanding the changing ocean and climate system supported by XBT observations. Improvement in XBT data quality and its impact on computations, particularly of OHC, are presented. Technology development for probes, launchers, and transmission techniques are also discussed. Finally, we offer new perspectives for the future of the Global XBT Network

Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown

Background: In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the “Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change”, an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics. / Discussion: This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change’s impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators’ relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs. / Conclusions: Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge is how to improve CCIEVIs so that the description of the linkages between climate change and human health can become more and more comprehensive

Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown

Background: In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the “Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change”, an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics. Discussion: This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change’s impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators’ relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs. Conclusions: Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge is how to improve CCIEVIs so that the description of the linkages between climate change and human health can become more and more comprehensive

A surface ocean CO2 reference network, SOCONET and associated marine boundary layer CO2 measurements

The Surface Ocean CO2 NETwork (SOCONET) and atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) CO2 measurements from ships and buoys focus on the operational aspects of measurements of CO2 in both the ocean surface and atmospheric MBLs. The goal is to provide accurate pCO2 data to within 2 micro atmosphere (μatm) for surface ocean and 0.2 parts per million (ppm) for MBL measurements following rigorous best practices, calibration and intercomparison procedures. Platforms and data will be tracked in near real-time and final quality-controlled data will be provided to the community within a year. The network, involving partners worldwide, will aid in production of important products such as maps of monthly resolved surface ocean CO2 and air-sea CO2 flux measurements. These products and other derivatives using surface ocean and MBL CO2 data, such as surface ocean pH maps and MBL CO2 maps, will be of high value for policy assessments and socio-economic decisions regarding the role of the ocean in sequestering anthropogenic CO2 and how this uptake is impacting ocean health by ocean acidification. SOCONET has an open ocean emphasis but will work with regional (coastal) networks. It will liaise with intergovernmental science organizations such as Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), and the joint committee for and ocean and marine meteorology (JCOMM). Here we describe the details of this emerging network and its proposed operations and practices

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement. This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent. The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and. doctors. The Lancet Countdown’s work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available (panel 1)

A 17-year dataset of surface water fugacity of CO2 along with calculated pH, aragonite saturation state and air-sea CO2 fluxes in the northern Caribbean Sea

A high-quality dataset of surface water fugacity of CO2 (fCO(2w))(1), consisting of over a million observations, and derived products are presented for the northern Caribbean Sea, covering the time span from 2002 through 2018. Prior to installation of automated pCO(2) systems on cruise ships of Royal Caribbean International and subsidiaries, very limited surface water carbon data were available in this region. With this observational program, the northern Caribbean Sea has now become one of the best-sampled regions for pCO(2) of the world ocean. The dataset and derived quantities are binned and averaged on a 1 degrees monthly grid and are available at http://accession.nodc.noaa.gov/0207749 (last access: 30 June 2020) (https://doi.org/10.25921/2swk-9w56; Wanninkhof et al., 2019a). The derived quantities include total alkalinity (TA), acidity (pH), aragonite saturation state (Omega(Ar)) and air-sea CO2 flux and cover the region from 15 to 28 degrees N and 88 to 62 degrees W. The gridded data and products are used for determination of status and trends of ocean acidification, for quantifying air-sea CO2 fluxes and for ground-truthing models. Methodologies to derive the TA, pH and Omega(Ar) and to calculate the fluxes from fCO(2w) temperature and salinity are described

Non-Cholera Vibrios:The Microbial Barometer of Climate Change

There is a growing interest in the role of climate change in driving the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacterial pathogens. One particular group of pathogenic bacteria – vibrios – are a globally important cause of diseases in humans and aquatic animals. These Gram-negative bacteria, including the species Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae, grow in warm, low-salinity waters, and their abundance in the natural environment mirrors ambient environmental temperatures. In a rapidly warming marine environment, there are greater numbers of human infections, and most notably outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heatwaves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe. Because the growth of pathogenic vibrios in the natural environment is largely dictated by temperature, we argue that this group of pathogens represents an important and tangible barometer of climate change in marine systems. We provide a number of specific examples of the impacts of climate change on this group of bacteria and their associated diseases, and discuss advanced strategies to improve our understanding of these emerging waterborne diseases through the integration of microbiological, genomic, epidemiological, climatic, and ocean sciences

Monitoring pelagic Sargassum inundation potential for coastal communities

Pelagic Sargassum is a buoyant macroalgae that forms rafts at the ocean surface and serves as a biologically rich habitat for hundreds of diverse marine species. Since 2011, massive blooms of Sargassum have occurred in the tropical Atlantic and swept through the western tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. These recurring annual events have caused significant disruptions to coastal communities throughout the region, negatively impacting human health, tourism, fishing, navigation, and nearshore ecosystems. We present here the Sargassum Inundation Report (SIR), a product that uses satellite-based methodology to estimate and predict the future coastal inundation of pelagic Sargassum. Results from one year of SIRs show strong spatiotemporal differences in the potential of coastal inundation across the Intra-American Seas, and provide a comprehensive method for assessing its geographic distribution and temporal variation. Comparisons of SIRs to opportunistically collected photographs indicate a qualitative concordance between satellite and in situ observations. This work highlights the value of satellite observations, basin-wide and seasonal monitoring, and emphasises the need for sub-regional and weekly forecasting. SIRs show considerable promise as a tool that can eventually incorporate improved spatiotemporal resolution Sargassum imagery, ocean circulation, wind, and wave conditions to forecast the movement of Sargassum into coastal areas