When a Nudge Isn’t Enough: Defaults and Saving Among Low-Income Tax Filers

Recent evidence suggests that the default options implicit in economic choices (e.g., 401(k) savings by white-collar workers) have extraordinarily large effects on decision-making. This study presents a field experiment that evaluates the effect of defaults on savings among a highly policy-relevant population: low-income tax filers. In the control condition, tax filers could choose (i.e., opt in) to receive some of their federal tax refund in the form of U.S. Savings Bonds. In the treatment condition, a fraction of the tax refund was automatically directed to U.S. Savings Bonds unless tax filers actively chose another allocation. We find that the opt-out default had no impact on savings behavior. Furthermore, our treatment estimate is sufficiently precise to reject effects as small as one-fifth of the participation effects found in the 401(k) literature. Ancillary evidence suggests that this "nudge" was ineffective in part because the low-income tax filers in our study had targeted plans to spend their refunds. These results suggest that choice architecture based on defaults may be less effective in certain policy-relevant settings, particularly where intentions are strong.

Bounding the MSSM Higgs sector from above with the Tevatron's B_s --> mu^+ mu^-

The discovery potential of the Tevatron CDF for the rare B-decay B_s --> mu^+ mu^- is analysed. We find that with an integrated luminosity of 2 fb^(-1), and using CDF as the example detector, a 5 sigma combined discovery reach of the Tevatron is possible if the Branching ratio for B_s --> mu^+ mu^- is (1.7 +- 0.46) \times 10^(-7). Such a possible signal for the decay B_s --> mu^+ mu^- will invite large tan(beta) values and set an upper bound on the heaviest mass of the MSSM Higgs sector in a complete analogy to the upper bound of the lightest observable supersymmetric particle set from the excess over the SM prediction of the muon anomalous magnetic moment. If for example, the decay B_s -->mu^+ mu^- is found at Tevatron with branching ratio 2 \times 10^(-7) then the heaviest Higgs boson mass in the MSSM should be less than 790 GeV for tan(beta) < 50 provided that the CKM matrix is the only source for (s)quark flavour changing processes.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, (v2) Minor changes, version to appear in Phys Lett

ATLAS Run 2 searches for electroweak production of supersymmetric particles interpreted within the pMSSM

A summary of the constraints from searches performed by the ATLAS collaboration for the electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos is presented. Results from eight separate ATLAS searches are considered, each using 140 fb−1 of proton-proton data at a centre-of-mass energy of √ = 13 TeV collected at the Large Hadron Collider during its second data-taking run. The results are interpreted in the context of the 19-parameter phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model, where R-parity conservation is assumed and the lightest supersymmetric particle is assumed to be the lightest neutralino. Constraints from previous electroweak, flavour and dark matter related measurements are also considered. The results are presented in terms of constraints on supersymmetric particle masses and are compared with limits from simplified models. Also shown is the impact of ATLAS searches on parameters such as the dark matter relic density and the spin-dependent and spin-independent scattering cross-sections targeted by direct dark matter detection experiments. The Higgs boson and Z boson ‘funnel regions’, where a low-mass neutralino would not oversaturate the dark matter relic abundance, are almost completely excluded by the considered constraints. Example spectra for non-excluded supersymmetric models with light charginos and neutralinos are also presented

Measurements of observables sensitive to colour reconnection in ¯ events with the ATLAS detector at √ = 13 TeV

A measurement of observables sensitive to effects of colour reconnection in top-quark pair-production events is presented using 139 fb−1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are selected by requiring exactly one isolated electron and one isolated muon with opposite charge and two or three jets, where exactly two jets are required to be b-tagged. For the selected events, measurements are presented for the charged-particle multiplicity, the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of the charged particles, and the same scalar sum in bins of charged-particle multiplicity. These observables are unfolded to the stable-particle level, thereby correcting for migration effects due to finite detector resolution, acceptance and efficiency effects. The particle-level measurements are compared with different colour reconnection models in Monte Carlo generators. These measurements disfavour some of the colour reconnection models and provide inputs to future optimisation of the parameters in Monte Carlo generators

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Feasibility and utility of positive psychology exercises for suicidal inpatients

ObjectiveThe objective was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of nine positive psychology exercises delivered to patients hospitalized for suicidal thoughts or behaviors, and to secondarily explore the relative impact of the exercises.MethodParticipants admitted to a psychiatric unit for suicidal ideation or behavior completed daily positive psychology exercises while hospitalized. Likert-scale ratings of efficacy (optimism, hopelessness, perceived utility) and ease of completion were consolidated and compared across exercises using mixed models accounting for age, missing data and exercise order. Overall effects of exercise on efficacy and ease were also examined using mixed models.ResultsFifty-two (85.3%) of 61 participants completed at least one exercise, and 189/213 (88.7%) assigned exercises were completed. There were overall effects of exercise on efficacy (χ(2)=19.39; P=.013) but not ease of completion (χ(2)=11.64; P=.17), accounting for age, order and skipped exercises. Effect (Cohen's d) of exercise on both optimism and hopelessness was moderate for the majority of exercises. Exercises related to gratitude and personal strengths ranked highest. Both gratitude exercises had efficacy scores that were significantly (P=.001) greater than the lowest-ranked exercise (forgiveness).ConclusionIn this exploratory project, positive psychology exercises delivered to suicidal inpatients were feasible and associated with short-term gains in clinically relevant outcomes

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe