Calculation of sample size for stroke trials assessing functional outcome: comparison of binary and ordinal approaches

Background Many acute stroke trials have given neutralresults. Sub-optimal statistical analyses may be failing todetect efficacy. Methods which take account of the ordinalnature of functional outcome data are more efficient. Wecompare sample size calculations for dichotomous and ordinaloutcomes for use in stroke trials.Methods Data from stroke trials studying the effects ofinterventions known to positively or negatively alter functionaloutcome – Rankin Scale and Barthel Index – wereassessed. Sample size was calculated using comparisons ofproportions, means, medians (according to Payne), and ordinaldata (according to Whitehead). The sample sizes gainedfrom each method were compared using Friedman 2 wayANOVA.Results Fifty-five comparisons (54 173 patients) of active vs.control treatment were assessed. Estimated sample sizesdiffered significantly depending on the method of calculation(Po00001). The ordering of the methods showed that theordinal method of Whitehead and comparison of meansproduced significantly lower sample sizes than the othermethods. The ordinal data method on average reduced samplesize by 28% (inter-quartile range 14–53%) compared withthe comparison of proportions; however, a 22% increase insample size was seen with the ordinal method for trialsassessing thrombolysis. The comparison of medians methodof Payne gave the largest sample sizes.Conclusions Choosing an ordinal rather than binary methodof analysis allows most trials to be, on average, smaller byapproximately 28% for a given statistical power. Smaller trialsample sizes may help by reducing time to completion, complexity,and financial expense. However, ordinal methodsmay not be optimal for interventions which both improvefunctional outcom

Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Triple Antiplatelets for Reducing Dependency after Ischaemic Stroke’ (TARDIS) trial

Rationale: Antiplatelet agents such as aspirin, clopidogrel and dipyridamole are effective in reducing the risk of recurrence after a stroke. Importantly, the risk of recurrence is highest immediately after the index event while antiplatelets cause bleeding. Aims and/or hypothesis: The ‘Triple Antiplatelets for Reducing Dependency after Ischaemic Stroke’ (TARDIS) trial is testing whether short-term intensive antiplatelet therapy is safe and effective in reducing the early risk of recurrence as compared with standard guideline-based therapy. Design: TARDIS is an international multi-center prospective randomized open-label blinded–end-point trial, with funding from the UK Health Technology Assessment program. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack are randomized within 48 h to intensive/triple antiplatelet therapy or guideline antiplatelets taken for one-month. Patients or relatives give written informed (proxy) consent and all sites have research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention-to-treat. Study Outcome: The primary outcome is shift in stroke recurrent events and their severity, assessed using the modified Rankin Scale, at three-months. Discussion: This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, as developed from the protocol during recruitment and prior to unblinding of data. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the primary and baseline publications. The data from the trial will provide the first large-scale randomized evidence for the use of intensive antiplatelet therapy for preventing recurrence after acute stroke and transient ischemic attack

Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ (ENOS) trial

High blood pressure is common during the acute phase of stroke and is associated with a poor outcome. However, the management of high blood pressure remains unclear. The ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ trial tested whether transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, a nitric oxide donor that lowers blood pressure, is safe and effective in improving outcome after acute stroke. Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke is an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, single-blind, blinded endpoint trial, with funding from the UK Medical Research Council. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage and systolic blood pressure 140–220 mmHg were randomized to glyceryl trinitrate or no glyceryl trinitrate and, where relevant, to continue or stop prestrike antihypertensive therapy. The primary outcome is shift in modified Rankin Scale at three-months. Patients or relatives gave written informed (proxy) consent, and all sites had research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention to treat. This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, developed prior to unblinding of date. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the two primary publications and some secondary publications. The database will be locked in late February 2014 in preparation for presentation of the results in May 2014. The data from the trial will improve the precision of the estimates of the overall treatment effects (efficacy and safety) of results from completed trials of blood pressure management in acute stroke, and provide the first large-scale randomized evidence on transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, and of continuing (vs. stopping) prestroke antihypertensive medications, in acute stroke

Sample size considerations for trials using cerebral white matter hyperintensity progression as an intermediate outcome at 1 year after mild stroke: Results of a prospective cohort study

Background: White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are commonly seen on in brain imaging and are associated with stroke and cognitive decline. Therefore, they may provide a relevant intermediate outcome in clinical trials. WMH can be measured as a volume or visually on the Fazekas scale. We investigated predictors of WMH progression and design of efficient studies using WMH volume and Fazekas score as an intermediate outcome. Methods: We prospectively recruited 264 patients with mild ischaemic stroke and measured WMH volume, Fazekas score, age and cardiovascular risk factors at baseline and 1 year. We modelled predictors of WMH burden at 1 year and used the results in sample size calculations for hypothetical randomised controlled trials with different analysis plans and lengths of follow-up. Results: Follow-up WMH volume was predicted by baseline WMH: a 0.73-ml (95% CI 0.65-0.80, p < 0.0001) increase per 1-ml baseline volume increment, and a 2.93-ml increase (95% CI 1.76-4.10, p < 0.0001) per point on the Fazekas scale. Using a mean difference of 1 ml in WMH volume between treatment groups, 80% power and 5% alpha, adjusting for all predictors and 2-year follow-up produced the smallest sample size (n = 642). Other study designs produced samples sizes from 2054 to 21,270. Sample size calculations using Fazekas score as an outcome with the same power and alpha, as well as an OR corresponding to a 1-ml difference, were sensitive to assumptions and ranged from 2504 to 18,886. Conclusions: Baseline WMH volume and Fazekas score predicted follow-up WMH volume. Study size was smallest using volumes and longer-term follow-up, but this must be balanced against resources required to measure volumes versus Fazekas scores, bias due to dropout and scanner drift. Samples sizes based on Fazekas scores may be best estimated with simulation studies

Nitric oxide donors (nitrates), L-arginine, or nitric oxide synthase inhibitors for acute stroke

Background:Nitric oxide (NO) has multiple effects that may be beneficial in acute stroke, including lowering blood pressure, and promoting reperfusion and cytoprotection. Some forms of nitric oxide synthase inhibition (NOS-I) may also be beneficial. However, high concentrations of NO are likely to be toxic to brain tissue. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 1998, and last updated in 2002. Objectives:To assess the safety and efficacy of NO donors, L-arginine, and NOS-I in people with acute stroke. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (last searched 6 February 2017), MEDLINE (1966 to June 2016), Embase (1980 to June 2016), ISI Science Citation Indexes (1981 to June 2016), Stroke Trials Registry (searched June 2016), International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) (searched June 2016), Clinical Trials registry (searched June 2016), and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (searched June 2016). Previously, we had contacted drug companies and researchers in the field. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials comparing nitric oxide donors, L-arginine, or NOS-I versus placebo or open control in people within one week of onset of confirmed stroke. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently applied the inclusion criteria, assessed trial quality and risk of bias, and extracted data. The review authors cross-checked data and resolved issues through discussion. We obtained published and unpublished data, as available. Data were reported as mean difference (MD) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main results: We included five completed trials, involving 4197 participants; all tested transdermal glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), an NO donor. The assessed risk of bias was low across the included studies; one study was double-blind, one open-label and three were single-blind. All included studies had blinded outcome assessment. Overall, GTN did not improve the primary outcome of death or dependency at the end of trial (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) > 2, OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.10, 4195 participants, high-quality evidence). GTN did not improve secondary outcomes, including death (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.50) and quality of life (MD -0.01, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.15) at the end of trial overall (high-quality evidence). Systolic/diastolic blood pressure (BP) was lower in people treated with GTN (MD -7.2 mmHg (95% CI -8.6 to -5.9) and MD -3.3 (95% CI -4.2 to -2.5) respectively) and heart rate was higher (MD 2.0 beats per minute (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9)). Headache was more common in those randomised to GTN (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.62). We did not find any trials assessing other nitrates, L-arginine, or NOS-I. Authors' conclusions: There is currently insufficient evidence to recommend the use of NO donors, L-arginine or NOS-I in acute stroke, and only one drug (GTN) has been assessed. In people with acute stroke, GTN reduces blood pressure, increases heart rate and headache, but does not alter clinical outcome (all based on high-quality evidence)

Testing devices for the prevention and treatment of stroke and its complications

We are entering a challenging but exciting period when many new interventions may appear for stroke based on the use of devices. Hopefully these will lead to improved outcomes at a cost that can be afforded in most parts of the world. Nevertheless, it is vital that lessons are learnt from failures in the development of pharmacological interventions (and from some early device studies), including inadequate preclinical testing, suboptimal trial design and analysis, and underpowered studies. The device industry is far more disparate than that seen for pharmaceuticals; companies are very variable in size and experience in stroke, and are developing interventions across a wide range of stroke treatment and prevention. It is vital that companies work together where sales and marketing are not involved, including in understanding basic stroke mechanisms, prospective systematic reviews, and education of physicians. Where possible, industry and academics should also work closely together to ensure trials are designed to be relevant to patient care and outcomes. Additionally, regulation of the device industry lags behind that for pharmaceuticals, and it is critical that new interventions are shown to be safe and effective rather than just feasible. Phase IV postmarketing surveillance studies will also be needed to ensure that devices are safe when used in the ‘real-world’ and to pick up uncommon adverse events

The FOCUS, AFFINITY and EFFECTS trials studying the effect(s) of fluoxetine in patients with a recent stroke:a study protocol for three multicentre randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Several small trials have suggested that fluoxetine improves neurological recovery from stroke. FOCUS, AFFINITY and EFFECTS are a family of investigator-led, multicentre, parallel group, randomised, placebo-controlled trials that aim to determine whether routine administration of fluoxetine (20 mg daily) for 6 months after acute stroke improves patients' functional outcome. METHODS/DESIGN: The three trial investigator teams have collaboratively developed a core protocol. Minor variations have been tailored to the national setting in the UK (FOCUS), Australia and New Zealand (AFFINITY) and Sweden (EFFECTS). Each trial is run and funded independently and will report its own results. A prospectively planned individual patient data meta-analysis of all three trials will subsequently provide the most precise estimate of the overall effect of fluoxetine after stroke and establish whether any effects differ between trials and subgroups of patients. The trials include patients ≥18 years old with a clinical diagnosis of stroke, persisting focal neurological deficits at randomisation between 2 and 15 days after stroke onset. Patients are randomised centrally via web-based randomisation systems using a common minimisation algorithm. Patients are allocated fluoxetine 20 mg once daily or matching placebo capsules for 6 months. Our primary outcome measure is the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include the Stroke Impact Scale, EuroQol (EQ5D-5 L), the vitality subscale of the Short-Form 36, diagnosis of depression, adherence to medication, adverse events and resource use. Outcomes are collected at 6 and 12 months. The methods of collecting these data are tailored to the national setting. If FOCUS, AFFINITY and EFFECTS combined enrol 6000 participants as planned, they would have 90 % power (alpha 5 %) to detect a common odds ratio of 1.16, equivalent to a 3.7 % absolute difference in percentage with mRS 0-2 (44.0 % to 47.7 %). This is based on an ordinal analysis of mRS adjusted for baseline variables included in the minimisation algorithm. DISCUSSION: If fluoxetine is safe and effective in promoting functional recovery, it could be rapidly, widely and affordably implemented in routine clinical practice and reduce the burden of disability due to stroke. TRIAL REGISTRATION: FOCUS: ISRCTN83290762 (23/05/2012), AFFINITY: ACTRN12611000774921 (22/07/2011). EFFECTS: ISRCTN13020412 (19/12/2014)

Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST)- sitting-up vs lying-flat positioning of patients with acute stroke: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Positioning a patient lying-flat in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke may improve recovery and reduce disability, but such a possibility has not been formally tested in a randomised trial. We therefore initiated the Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) to determine the effects of lying-flat (0°) compared with sitting-up (≥30°) head positioning in the first 24 hours of hospital admission for patients with acute stroke. Methods/Design We plan to conduct an international, cluster randomised, crossover, open, blinded outcome-assessed clinical trial involving 140 study hospitals (clusters) with established acute stroke care programs. Each hospital will be randomly assigned to sequential policies of lying-flat (0°) or sitting-up (≥30°) head position as a ‘business as usual’ stroke care policy during the first 24 hours of admittance. Each hospital is required to recruit 60 consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), and all patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (an estimated average of 10), in the first randomised head position policy before crossing over to the second head position policy with a similar recruitment target. After collection of in-hospital clinical and management data and 7-day outcomes, central trained blinded assessors will conduct a telephone disability assessment with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The primary outcome for analysis is a shift (defined as improvement) in death or disability on this scale. For a cluster size of 60 patients with AIS per intervention and with various assumptions including an intracluster correlation coefficient of 0.03, a sample size of 16,800 patients at 140 centres will provide 90 % power (α 0.05) to detect at least a 16 % relative improvement (shift) in an ordinal logistic regression analysis of the primary outcome. The treatment effect will also be assessed in all patients with ICH who are recruited during each treatment study period. Discussion HeadPoST is a large international clinical trial in which we will rigorously evaluate the effects of different head positioning in patients with acute stroke. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02162017 (date of registration: 27 April 2014); ANZCTR identifier: ACTRN12614000483651 (date of registration: 9 May 2014). Protocol version and date: version 2.2, 19 June 2014

Should stroke trials adjust functional outcome for baseline prognostic factors?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Many stroke trials have provided neutral results. Suboptimal statistical analyses may be failing to detect effective interventions. Adjusting outcomes for baseline prognostic factors in the analysis may improve the efficiency of analysis of outcomes. METHODS: Data from 23 stroke trials (25 674 patients) assessing functional outcome were included. The prognostic variables considered were age, sex, and baseline severity. Unadjusted and adjusted ordinal logistic regression models were compared using simulated data from each trial (10 000 simulations per trial). Three levels of treatment effect were assessed with ORs of 0.95, 0.74, and 0.57. The reduction in sample size gained from using the adjusted models, as compared with an unadjusted model, was then calculated as a reflection of the increase in statistical power. RESULTS: Adjusting outcome for baseline factors led to a reduction in sample size, which was similar across all 3 treatment effects (median percentage reduction, interquartile range): OR=0.95: 35.3% (21.0 to 42.1); OR=0.74: 38.4% (29.4 to 42.7); and OR=0.57: 38.4% (27.4 to 42.2). As the treatment effect increased, the proportion of simulations in which the treatment effect for the adjusted model was greater than for the unadjusted model also increased. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting for prognostic factors in stroke trials can reduce sample size by at least 20% to 30% (the lower interquartile range) for a given power. Conversely, trialists may want to power for an unadjusted analysis and then increase statistical power by adjusting for prognostic factors

Intravenous tranexamic acid for hyperacute primary intracerebral hemorrhage: protocol for a randomized, placebo-controlled trial

Rationale: Outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage remains poor. Tranexamic acid is easy to administer, readily available, inexpensive, and effective in other hemorrhagic conditions. Aim: This randomized trial aims to test the hypothesis that intravenous tranexamic acid given within 8 h of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage reduces death or dependency. Design: Phase III prospective double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial. Participants within 8 h of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage are randomized to receive either intravenous tranexamic acid 1 g 10 min bolus followed by 1 g 8 h infusion, or placebo. Sample size estimates: A trial of 2000 participants (300 from start-up phase and 1700 from main phase) will have 90% power to detect an ordinal shift of the modified Rankin Scale with odds ratio 0.79. Study outcomes: The primary outcome is death or dependency measured by ordinal shift analysis of the 7 level mRS at day 90. Secondary outcomes are neurological impairment at day 7 and disability, quality of life, cognition, and mood at day 90. Safety outcomes are death, serious adverse events, thromboembolic events, and seizures. Cost outcomes are length of stay in hospital, readmission, and institutionalization. Discussion: This pragmatic trial is assessing efficacy of tranexamic acid after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Recruitment started in 2013; as of 15th January 2016 1355 participants have been enrolled, from 95 centers in seven countries. Recruitment is due to end in 2017. TICH-2 Trial is registered as ISRCTN93732214