Optimal transit corridors for Ethiopia

Background: Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea, a former province, gained independence. Its imports and exports by sea are now sent via neighbouring coastal states, mainly Djibouti, and it needs to ensure sustainable access to multiple transit corridors. Objective: This article aims to evaluate alternative transit corridors to Ethiopia in terms of basic port infrastructure, and logistics costs. The findings provide insights to inform policy on securing reliable maritime access to the country. Method: This study adopts a case study approach by using secondary data to evaluate alternative transit corridors. Following a critical review of theoretical and empirical literature, descriptive statistics are presented using tables, graphs and charts. Results: Low-cost, high-capacity and high-frequency global maritime freight trade is easier through Djibouti than through Mombasa in Kenya or Port Sudan, owing to its better liner shipping connectivity. Thus, Ethiopia should continue to import containerised cargo through the Port of Djibouti. However, direct access to the sea is also important for national defence and security. Conclusion: Ethiopia should therefore secure access through multiple ports to safeguard national security, regardless of economic feasibility. This can be realised by directing break-bulk, dry bulk and petroleum products through ports in Sudan and Kenya. In addition, particular emphasis should be given to seaports closest to the country’s economic centre, such as Berbera in Somaliland and Asseb and Massawa in Eritrea. Keywords: landlocked; transit corridor; infrastructure development; container shipping; dry bulk shipping; logistics cost.publishedVersio

Bovine Hydatidosis in Eastern Part of Ethiopia

A cross-sectional study was conducted on bovine hydatidosis from November 2010 to March 2011 with the aims of investigating its occurrence, risk factors and economic losses in Dire Dawa municipality abattoir. The study revealed 20.05% occurrence of hydatidosis based on the postmortem examination of1536 cattle. Age related infection was significant as older animals were more infected (P<0.05, x2 = 27.496).Among the lungs, liver, heart, spleen and kidneys examined in each carcass, the cysts were distributed in the lungs and livers only. Out of 1852 cysts, 1340 (72.3%) were found in liver while512 (27.7%) in lungs. Five hundred and twenty (53.94%) of 964 hydatid cysts were small, while268 (27.80%) medium and 176 (18.25%) large. These cysts were further characterized as fertile (80.08.7%), sterile (17.3%) and calcified (2.85%) and 53.7% of fertile cysts were viable. Based on the study, the direct economic loss was estimated to be 23,876 Ethiopian Birrs. Presence of hydatid cysts in edible organs has great public health significance as consumption of undercooked/raw meat is still in practice in many parts of Ethiopia.Keywords: Abattoir, Bovine, Carcass, Cysts, Hydatidosis, Eastern Ethiopia

Invitro Antibacterial Screening of Extracts from Selected Ethiopian Medicinal Plants

Indigenous knowledge, literature reports and ethnobotanical records suggest that plants are the basis for medicines. They constitute natural source of antimicrobial drugs that will provide novel or lead compounds for the fight against disease. In this study, the antimicrobial activity of three selected Ethiopian medicinal plants was studied with the objective of  screening their antibacterial activity. The fruits of Measalanceolata, aerial part of Cissus quadrangularis and leaf of Dodonae angustifolia were collected, air dried under shed, powdered and soaked in 80% methanol and extracted. In vitro antibacterial activity of the extracts was tested at different concentrations by using agar disc diffusion method and  measuring the zone of inhibition. The plant extracts showed broad  spectrum activity against gram positive (S. aureus) as well as gram  negative (E. coli) bacteria, except Cissus quadrangularis which did not show any activity against E. coli. Furthermore, the plant extracts had also  concentration dependant zone of inhibition against the tested bacteria. In fact, the highest activity was obtained for Dodonae angustifolia at  1000mg/ml against S. aureus. The activities are attributed to the presence of some secondary metabolites present in the tested plants which have been associated with antibacterial activities. This finding suggests that these medicinal plants can be potential source to isolate antibacterial drugs.Keywords: Antibacterial activity, Disc diffusion, E. coli, Plant extract and S. aureus

Quantification of Methane Emissions from Indoor-Fed Fogera Dairy Cows Using Laser Methane Detector

Portable laser methane detectors (LMDs) may be an economical means of estimating CH4 emissions from ruminants. Here, we validated an LMD-based approach and then used that approach to evaluate CH4 emissions from indigenous dairy cows in a dryland area of Ethiopia. First, we validated our LMD-based approach in Simmental crossbred beef cattle (n = 2) housed in respiration chambers and fed either a high- or low-concentrate diet. We found that the exhaled air CH4 concentrations measured by LMD were linearly correlated with the CH4 emissions determined by infrared-absorption-based gas analyzer (r2 = 0.55). On the basis of these findings, we constructed an estimation equation to determine CH4 emissions (y, mg min−1) from LMD CH4 concentrations (x, ppm m) as y = 0.4259x + 38.61. Next, we used our validated LMD approach to examine CH4 emissions in Fogera dairy cows grazed for 8 h d−1 (GG, n = 4), fed indoors on natural-grassland hay (CG1, n = 4), or fed indoors on Napier-grass (Pennisetum purpureum) hay (CG2, n = 4). All the cows were supplemented with concentrate feed. Daily CH4 emissions did not differ among the three groups; however, a numerically greater milk yield was obtained from the CG2 cows than from the GG cows, suggesting that Napier-grass hay might be better than natural-grassland hay for indoor feeding. The CG1 cows had higher CH4 emissions per feed intake than the other groups, without significant increases in milk yield and body-weight gain, suggesting that natural-grassland hay cannot be recommended for indoor-fed cows. These findings demonstrate the potential of using LMDs to rapidly and economically evaluate feeding regimens for dairy cows in areas under financial constraint, while taking CH4 emissions into consideration

Identification of the Neogenin-Binding Site on the Repulsive Guidance Molecule A

Repulsive guidance molecule (RGM) is a membrane-bound protein that was originally identified as an axon guidance molecule in the chick retinotectal system. RGMa, one of the 3 isoforms found in mammals, is involved in laminar patterning, cephalic neural tube closure, axon guidance, and inhibition of axonal regeneration. In addition to its roles in the nervous system, RGMa plays a role in enhancing helper T-cell activation. Binding of RGM to its receptor, neogenin, is considered necessary to transduce these signals; however, information on the binding of RGM to neogenin is limited. Using co-immunoprecipitation studies, we have identified that the RGMa region required for binding to neogenin contains amino acids (aa) 259–295. Synthesized peptide consisting of aa 284–293 directly binds to the extracellular domain (ECD) of recombinant neogenin, and addition of this peptide inhibits RGMa-induced growth cone collapse in mouse cortical neurons. Thus, we propose that this peptide is a promising lead in finding reagents capable of inhibiting RGMa signaling

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress